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Updated December 28, 2023
October 30th, 2023, 12:53 PM
boston ma
Posts: 387 since Dec 2012
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inflation turn would trigger bonds, smalls since rate sensitive, but not yet near support
energy factor in inflation is also a hint along with real rates, post inflation
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
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November 3rd, 2023, 04:11 PM
boston ma
Posts: 387 since Dec 2012
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wary of overall index pricing, bit of chasing vs. real support, but vix is not bouncing, bonds bid
china rallied behind active gov buying, and possible hike pause/end to suggest returns into treasuries
small caps, more rate sensitive picked up as well finding support, though unsure of major support area
November 7th, 2023, 01:00 PM
boston ma
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the mechanism of bonds inverse to indexes has yet to show
November 14th, 2023, 04:40 PM
boston ma
Posts: 387 since Dec 2012
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possible test of mid resistance levels, again correlation off. cpi triggered dxy drop reverting inflation levels
November 15th, 2023, 01:00 AM
San Francisco, CA
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handspin
the mechanism of bonds inverse to indexes has yet to show
waiting for this to happen, at some point risk-off bond buying isn't a good thing
November 29th, 2023, 04:44 PM
boston ma
Posts: 387 since Dec 2012
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right, rates dipping does not necessarily push indexes once risk off takes hold
looking at supports under 2020, possibly extensions to test 2015 areas
might restore the inverse correlation between stocks + bonds
December 1st, 2023, 04:49 PM
boston ma
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there is the possibility of japanification, where once you start this style of yield control stimulus, you cannot really go back
either way the upside for large cap tech, mag7, etc. is less desirable vs. other instruments that provide a better margin of safety
this is not to say that anything could continue to rise, but the inherent risk is magnified for those closer to resistance versus support
December 12th, 2023, 02:35 PM
boston ma
Posts: 387 since Dec 2012
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vix pushing toward support, single digits would be interesting, indexes not following
the scenario where dollar levels combat inflation would shade commodities
and scenarios where yields hold or fall might also deflate indexes
vix may want that last hurrah however wary indexes may be
December 12th, 2023, 06:09 PM
Smithfield, VA
Legendary Options Mando
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handspin
vix pushing toward support, single digits would be interesting, indexes not following
the scenario where dollar levels combat inflation would shade commodities
and scenarios where yields hold or fall might also deflate indexes
vix may want that last hurrah however wary indexes may be
When VIX breaks there's going to be some pain out there!
I honestly can't wait for higher VIX prices again. Be nice if it stayed in the 20's
December 13th, 2023, 03:01 PM
boston ma
Posts: 387 since Dec 2012
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the follow through release of VIX from previous day drop evident in everything now
carries via JPY are less active, some negative. with DXY drop, exported inflation
strong forex like AUD, coupled with 4% yields is a tailwind for domestic rates
//
as the basket against DXY appreciates, possible sourcing of domestic goods
VIX going to single digits / testing supports, may be an area of hedging
tracked over the current decade, might be the real area of reversal
(moment where tail event, yields drop hard, but indexes fall too)
also gamma burst to highs according to squeezemetrics while dark pools sold into strength in the daily
Last Updated on December 28, 2023