stuff like this is usually multiple days of continuation

vix is out of range short term but the dominoes are in place

widening of range into elections which might be pricing in now

even though short term rates kneejerk lower

like sofr 1s 3s and 2y notes they are out of range

capped inflation mandate has no room on the short end

//

there may be a safety net on the longer dates for housing, etc

just enough to cull out a free fall but we see prices overall down

remote needs to break multi job boundaries to promote earnings

historical patterns etc, but the 07-08 took some time to really blow up

there may be some restraint holding into elections and semi weakness

some type of tail risk event needed to push things again into next year

//

dollar has relative strength vs overall market but is still down as well

carries are suffering from the yen reversion which may also need time

again the first vix knock would settle but does not mean final clearance

//

question of what those events are but not really dip buying environment

even if things are out of range and ad extremes, even energy is weak

commodities and crypto possibly sold to cover certain margins too

//

de-risking / de-leveraging ongoing post change in carry positions

sofrs are not really reacting after the fact suggesting no gov interference

short / long term yields not responding as well, 5 yr note under 2 yr for '25

//

little hopes of intervention, trapped with inflation / debt means market forces in play

looking for a recharge or retrace to semi reset

anything that is a larger majority would bring conviction

forward looking we are at least ahead of the overall balance

//

question is really the timing and whether a cut would be premature

also some larger earnings in play, and tests of resistance to confirm

we at least have a controlled market absent of halts, etc. liquidity

bit early but the 50% retrace would be the starting line

redeeming earnings estimates by moving toward small caps

some ex-us like eur and jpy may have some medium term positivity

//

again, very supporting of the idea of organic / grass roots growth

something away from the moth to flame attraction of large co AI

opening up domestic and localized sources of revenue / breadth

have to withdraw my scale in due to lack of movement past 50% retrace

aud/jpy seems more healthy but even this is not enough to justify

also vix has not done enough as well to make the case better

//

looking at funds, the components themselves are still high

nothing has changed enough to produce a different outcome

so this is still within the ongoing trend and not really a good entry

that countertrend bounce that ebbs before high tide starts creeping in

except that this is a rip tide that was put on pause

stuff seems inevitable and frankly necessary

//

not many places to hide and even cash broke temp support

Deflationary Pressure -> S&P CoreLogic data from this decade

Composite in 2021, ~245, currently 330 expecting -25% minimum

Applies to any metro since 2021 support would need to be tested

SOFRS and 30year are close to reverting toward prior case

which decreases the likelihood of any immediate rate change

these are the least stubborn of the changes seen in macros

low volume bye month but valuations still uppity

many shorter term yields are poised but paused

setup for some goldilocks though energy dippin