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I expected not much after that huge expansion of range
Often we see balanced or non trend days after big expansions
had some technical problems with unwanted order fills
left early as i had a doctors appointment
My main context is: The breakout of the balance area is intact for now
We have some nice targets above us. Prior acceptances. Daily and weekly virgin volume poc´s, edges of value areas
The volume was a bit lower yesterday which reduces the stability of the breakout a bit but thats only one data point. For now it is intact until proven otherwise
Shorts were not able to gain any traction so i closed them early
I thought that this weakness of shorts is a sign that buyers could still be in control
It was hard to catch the inflection point but at third trial it worked. I expected more control from the long side here but we were not able to reach ibh
Ended the day with a scalp short as it looked as if the would run over the very weak low of day which they did
10am news are often tricky as they can be shake out news
market opened in balance
overnight had tested lower but came back in
The longs in the first hour were derived from the scenario that the status quo could remain intact
The ES supported that thesis as it spent the whole morning inside thursdays range
IN c-period we accelerated on the downside so that the bias to short side was clear
There was no pullback opportunity for a continuation trade
It was too late for short and too early for longs so i am very satisfied that there was no trade in that phase
When there were signs of change i bought it. I decided to speculate that it comes back hard and did not trade it as a small distance contra scalp. After the fact the latter would have been better. But you never know. After long moves there can come long moves in the opposite direction
I switched back to short as there were signs that a afternoon rally high is in. The short side saw no follow through
Bigger picture
I see it as totally open if we get a rollover to the shortside or if this is only a pullback and the latest up-move remains intact
On the one hand the potential rollover occurs on obvious technical level in both markets
On the other hand if the market would clearly want the rollover we would already be lower
The most obvious description for me is that the 4 day up-move was mostly covering and that fridays downmove was mostly a liquidation of speculative longs that bought this covering late. Many moves are caused by inventory corrections.