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Brent supported the WTI short in many ways. When the WTI Failed A up short setup
We had a good A down
MP was broken
Price was banging against MP low
Exit was also supported by Brent reaching its ADR targets.
These are still just observations. I really did not take the trade in WTI because of what Brent was doing. WTI trade was because of what WTI was doing.
Want to note in my journal the bigger than usual delta divergence today since the open in WTI. Selling is being heavily absorbed today in WTI while Brent price behavior is consistent with delta
All analysis and no execution is useless. So based on the analysis so far, long from 97.52. I have ORL, 3D Pivot High support to lean on. Entry was supported by order flow divergence. Anticipating a new high of the day quickly otherwise, it will just be a scratch. Did not take this in the LTP account but the regular combine account.
1:12 PM: 14 minutes into the trade. There is some follow through but stalled at WORL. So protecting it now. Will hold it and either I get 97.98 or it is a scratch.
1:19 PM: Its a scratch. Had to try it. Was good for 20 ticks or so, not good enough for a new high.
Getting good divergence at around 98.60. Price is at ADR limits. Gave it enough time to test the high once more. Attempting short in anticipation of Failed A up and pullback to WORH area. Short from 98.51.
8:54: 45 minutes in the trade. Finding it difficult to stick to the plan. I have been moving target and stop around. Finally decided to accept whatever the outcome. Target and stop back to what it should be. It is a failed A up and I will just have to stick to the plan and go for min R:R at least. Earliest target I will take is 98.06 area. Worst case, tomorrow is another day.
To remind myself why it is important to stick to the plan, I want to post this. CL will pullback 20-30 ticks but as long as the premise of the trade is not broken, there is no reason to get out or panic. I had 31 ticks and in hindsight, 98.21 was a good exit but that didnt happen so what next? Stay in the trade per plan. The almost 30 tick pullback was really not that strong as is evident by the divergence. So the premise of the trade is still good - its a failed A down until proven wrong. Decent targets are ORL, WORH and possibly EORH which coincides with the low end of the min ADR. Hopefully Brent will cooperate a little. It has so far by having a good A down and hopefully it will go a bit more providing the push in WTI needed to break 98.20.
I just meant that the pivots were not nearby. The premise behind the trade was a failed A up, enough time passed and no attempt to take it higher etc. Learnt all this from you and thank you very much for all of your help.
Now, if I could only learn to hold on to the trades. Just got out at 98.20 but logically, I should be holding for ORL. But happy with 31 ticks.
I am VERY impressed by your potential targets analysis.
Nice one. Analysis has to be right before you can trade it I guess?
Looks like you are REALLY getting this.
Thanks again for the Gomi stuff. That's helping a lot