Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Bias for the day: slightly bearish
Yesterday the crude tested the 93.3 two times, failing. Overnight was a third test, failing again.
If the bulls can push through 93.3 and then the 93.38-93.51 area, the way is free to 94.
Otherwise, if the bears come in they have to break through 3 support levels, and then the 92.22 ONL, then the next stop is the very wide 91.26-91.75 area. So the bears have to work harder… but I'm on their side
I try to keep the promise to myself that I only pull the trigger on premium trades.
Today I couldn’t see any real good ones, the ones I examined would give mixed results, I would be about even.
Of course anything can happen the second half of the day, but I’ll stay out, since it’s Friday, and right now it’s painfully slow for me.
The crude went sideways int he first half of the day. By 9:45, the bears could push down to the second support area, but couldn’t break through. By 10:40 the bulls pushed the price fourth times to 93.3, but couldn’t get through either.
The fifth time around 13:10 was successful, the bulls managed to push throuh to 93.86, but eventually lost power and came back below 93.3.
Right now the crude are just at the levels of the monthly resistance, so today may be choppy.
If the bulls can push through th ONH, the way is free to 94.
Otherwise, if the bears can move the crude below the ONL, the next support is the 92.2-92.3 area.
It was a very bad day, I just lost the trading game mentally. The positive thing I also learned a lot
First, what did I do wrong:
- I wrote before, that I think it’s gonna be a choppy day. Well, I „forgot” what I saw int he market before the open, so I wasn’t cautious enough.
- Trades 4,5,6 are just were not justified, I have to stick to my usual setups.
What I learned:
- I’ll try to do my setups with trailing stops, be more agressive on trade management. Of course it has disadvantages, maybe I’m stopped out, then it goes my way. I think it’s worth experimenting.
- I definitely overtraded after the losses. Rule from now: after two losing trades, I take a 10 minute break, away from the screens.
Trade 1:
Time: 9:36
Sell 5 @ 93.3
Buy 5 @ 93.36 P&L w. commissions: -323.2
I think the trade idea was good. The crude was streched, and there was a volume imbalance as well. The delta was choppy, though.
Trade 2:
Time: 9:38
Sell 5 @ 93.29
Buy 5 @ 93.32
P&L w. commissions: -173.2
I was still fond of the idea that it’s gonna go down. Instead of breaking down, it went sideways.
It was a losing trade, but I saw the delta decreasing, so I narrowed the stop, which was a good move, so I lost less.
Trade 3:
Time: 10:06
Sell 5 @ 93.53
Buy 2 @ 93.47
Buy 3 @ 93.53
P&L w. commissions: 96.8
It was a good trade, I got the first goal, after that it turned.
Trade 4:
Time: 10:22
Buy 5 @ 93.56
Sell 5 @ 93.51
P&L w. commissions: -273.2
It wasn’t my usual setup, I usually don’t play breakouts. In the future, if I play this, I have to use trailing stops, since most breakouts fail. With a trailing stop the loss would be around 70.
Trade 5:
Time: 10:39
Sell 5 @ 93.62
Buy 5 @ 93.63
P&L w. commissions: -73.2
I shouldn’t have taken this trade, it didn’t meet my requirements: the ONH and prev. close was too close, so it became choppy in this area. I tried to scratch.
Trade 6:
Time: 11:01
Buy 5 @ 93.71
Sell 5 @ 93.66
P&L w. commissions: -293.2
I tried a breakout again, too bad.
I want to let you and all your readers know that in October nexusfi.com (formerly BMT) has a Trading Journal contest w/prizes. The contest runs October 1 to October 31, and the three best journals (as decided by nexusfi.com (formerly BMT) members) will receive a 150K combine from TopstepTrader.
Continuing in the tradition of encouraging journals on futures.io (formerly BMT), I am announcing a new Journal contest for October 2014.
The rules are extremely simple:
a) The contest begins October 1 and ends October 31. All decisions made …
That thread will be open for posting starting Wednesday, October 1. As the author of your journal, you need to make a post in that thread linking to your journal, and then ask users to press the "Thanks" button on that post if they want to vote for your journal to win the contest.
Members can vote for as many different journals as they want. Votes are cast in the Contest thread only, and only on the first post made by the author of the journal that contains a link to their journal. This is done so I can easily count the "Thanks Received" by author/journal, and award the three prizes.
Well, the bulls won, after chopping around the ONH and prev. close, they pushed it through to the 93.9-94.05 area, then to the next resistance area to 94.61-94.9.
The predefined areas served well:
Overnight the crude mainly moved in the 94.4-94.76 area. It’s just above the levels of the monthly resistance, but I think it will go back below 93 this week.
I don’t think the bulls can push through the ONH, or not much – its the end of the VolProf (all) there. If they do, it can go a long way…
Otherwise, if the bears can move the crude below the ONL, the next support is the 93.9-94.03 area.
So the areas are:
90.75-90.91
91.3-91.76
92.25-92.4
92.71-93.3
93.5-93.63
93.9-94.03
94.4-94.76
95.73-95.93
Because the trading mistakes of yesterday, I altered my trading method. Till yesterday my profit target was 20 ticks, with scaling out on the way, and leave 1 contract in to run, if it wants
Today I was more agressive, I used trailing stops instead of fix ones, and planned all out at 10 ticks.
Also managed to pull the trigger on the real good ones, I just waited till the trade shouted in my face: NOW!
I didn’t want to stay in the market after the 11:25 selling frenzy. Personally, I prefer stay out of the elevator when a 900 pound gorilla is in.
Trade 1:
Time: 9:30
Buy 5 @ 94.13
Sell 5 @ 94.23 P&L w. commissions: 476.8
Although I wanted to trade in the short side, I found the crude way too streched. The idea was to get a quick profit on the correction, and it was successful.
Trade 2:
Time: 9:51
Sell 5 @ 93.99
Buy 5 @ 93.89
P&L w. commissions: 476.8
This is the kind of a setup I usually look for: after a long strech to 94 the buying activity decreased, and one could see a paw of a bear. I also aimed for 10 ticks. The target could be more, but of course everybody can read the left side of the chart perfectly