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I use Market Profile for intraday and larger timeframe supply/demand analysis for swing. Of course the markets are not 100% correlated all the time, but by analysing underlying reasons for the moves and then translating that into trading ideas through technical analysis of MP and SD works for me. And has done for almost 7 years now. I have a sizeable account (6 figures) that I traded up from a 4-figure account in the space of about 5 years - once I was confident that I know what I'm doing it all happened reasonably quickly. So these days I have exclusion/inclusion conditions by combining S/D with MP and using macro-economic analysis for some underlying ideas to make sure I'm not going against general monetary policy of the country that pertains to the instrument traded.
For example, by looking at where USDCAD is in terms of reactive supply/demand zones and then comparing where WTI crude oil opens at Nymex in relation to previous days market profile can give you pretty accurate trade locations if you know how to read the clues that MP offers through timeframe transitions - if there is one. Whole last year, crude did a lot of open-drive type Nymex opens with a few open-test-drives with a heavy downward bias while USDCAD went on a mad rally.
So by looking at these correlations from the right point of view, you can find probable trade direction which in turn can give you a clue on what to look for in relation to the Nymex open in crude oil. USDCAD has reached a long term supply and showing signs of rejection. Since I prefer trading crude oil to usdcad as its faster offering more ticks in a day, I will be looking to see if we can get a crude oil Nymex open above value area for a possibility of a long trade. If I dont get that, that's a condition for exclusion of highly probable swing trades. I will then keep to intraday trades until a swing trade opportunity arises.
First visible H4 demand where a larger push was made is at 11339. I would expect to see an upward reaction from around VAL and this H4 demand, since they are so close together. It's the first day of the month, there should be some new business positioning this week.
doggette, I forgot to mention that I also look at overnight activity for the instruments I trade, is giving most of the time useful info.
Good trading.
You're going to looking to sell in a bullish market that is supported by fundamentals (upcoming EU QE) and in a market that makes higher highs almost every day? Good luck with that...
I try to hold the position as long as possible with constantly monitoring weekly market structure. I work intraday if market does not allow to work on a longer timeframe. if there are doubts about the strength of the market structure on the weekly chart, I'm prefer to be an observer, trade another market or write some software for analysis.
Thank you for your opinion on DAX, I would like to share with you ideas if it is of interest to you...
Article in attachment is very conceptual... you practice the same opinion?
I believe that large moves are created by volume and on larger TFs are very visible as candlestick structures without the need to look at volumes. So I don't really use volume analysis in my trading. I do a combination of intraday trades and shorter swings (2-3 days duration). I do, however use market profile as well as larger timeframe supply/demand analysis which works well to tell me when to exit a swing or even when to enter if I missed the move away from zone of interest initially.
Market profile also allows for some pretty confident fades on intraday, just by looking at the MP structure.
Like today in crude oil, for example - other timeframe participants have extended initial balance on both sides. I also had an area of interest in crude at 51.92 (previous supply on 4-hour chart). So by seeing that today is likely to end as a neutral composite day and the range extension on both sides also means a neutral day, in spite of the 234 tick move, I was pretty confident to fade the move at 51.90 through a limit order. Possible target is 50.60 if we don't run out of time today. Eitherway, I'm taking the fade trade off by electronic close or even sooner if I see that buyers are back in action.
Can't say a lot about crude, I rarely deal with it because of the high diffuse volume zones (troubles to set tight stop). On larger timeframe we can see an massive volume platform at 48,9...49,6. This means high interest of market participants to this zone. The last three days the price holds above this zone. It is possible to upside-surprise, but the next big movement will be determined by positioning zone around 51,8+-. If this market can broke higher, more significant rally can happen.
Let me ask you a question about your risk management. What is the size of your stops on crude (or on DAX)?