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Reference point
2285.25 previous low
2290.00 previous high
2283.00 GAP low
2277.00 GAP high
2288.50 Settlement price
Opening play:
1. If price open and trade first at 2285.25 and bid hold, join bid up to 2290.00 or 2292.25 and look for absorption for shorting wave 2
2. If opening price trade at 2290.00 area first also closing GAP and test 2285.25 and bid hold, join the bid up to previous swing high and look for ABC correction for short trade
3. If price trade at 2285.25 and seller dominant look for XTL trade for short in wave 3 down.
Globex alternate 24 hour:
5 waves down for wave 1 and complete wave a of ABC up. Expect price to form wave b down to 2284.75 or 2284.25 and bounce in 5 waves to 2292.25-2293.25 area
If price trade passes 2283.00 with decent volume, wave 3 might be in progress.
Short expectancy was very short live with very limited target compare to long for couple of days in ES. Buyers keep coming strong. I need to revise my count to more bullish until proven the other way. DJIA and NQ made new time high where ES lagged. New high brings uncertainty and limited moves, we need big aggressive trader to lead and if it can be detected just go with it. concentrate to extra big print if there are any today.
Reference points:
2299.50 ultimate high
2290.25 Settlement price
2286.00 LVN
Alternate globex count:
Overlapping waves suggest correction hasn’t over.
If wave C of (Y) is in progress there are two possibilities either we are in wave 3 or still in process forming wave 2.
Trading in different style today,trading without chart since my analysis indicates long only day.
Testing new entry technique assuming wave 3 brings strong wind behind. Join bid when bid hold around 4k contract and scalp in and out using jigsaw tool.
I realize it is “trade to hold” kind of day but since I’m sharpening my trading skill because trending day used to be my nemesis but using order flow it was really 20/20 vision.
Trade only half day due to lack of sleep and it is pat in the back day for me. hope tomorrow correction already over.
reference point :
2207.25 - 2206.50 ON HVN
2204.25 settlement price
2301.00 25% retracement
RTH preferred count
ES complete wave (3) in gold and in consolidation of wave (4). watch the 2301-ish area for support.
ETH alternate count
suggest that trend is over and down trend is ahead
gap opening play
1. if es open above 2204.25 and close gap and bid hold 4k, join the bid to opening price. if offer hold at opening price 4-5 price level, bid below again otherwise join the offer
2. if price open at 2207 trade above and bid hold, use the RTH scenario
preferred count indicates that trend will continue until all sub waves reveals but it is going to be choppier as series of fourth and fifth waves lie ahead.
Characteristic of waves 5 is lesser aggressiveness and volume compare to previous move so expect longer holding time but ES is still in wave 3 longer time frame it is more likely the correction last only one day.
Trading plan :
- buy every 3 waves ABC down
- expect minimum target for short trades
- less scalp more position day trades
I am done for today, leaving some on the table, i know but that is for another day tasks.
Got to get some rest besides today's target has been achieved.
Took couple trades base on analysis.
Missed the completion of correction of wave C due to expected absorption and there was non. waves 5 can only be identify from capitulation and lesser participant, if there was absorption more likely hasn't finished yet. This one really upset me. it was thin episode and no retracement until reach previous high so got in inpatient with modified momentum trade and got lucky.
I got caught up in hospital yesterday due to family issue.
Seems like ES is in the final stage of wave 3 and deep correction ahead down to 2319.75 for wave 4 but for before that, today ES is required by Elliot guideline to make new high to complete waves 5 cycles.
Trading plan :
1. Look for absorption at LVN and FIB retracement .382 (2343.75) - .50(2341.50) to go long.
2. Watch price at 2248.00 and 2350.50 for potential reversal down
3. Watch 2352.50 and 2361.50 for completion of wave 3 cycles.
4. Buy every ABC correction
Sorry, to hear about the death in your family. I hope you all are able to help one another during this difficult time and that the Lord may comfort each of you as you cast your cares upon Him.
Don't be controlled by GREED, Led by FEAR, or Puffed up with PRIDE!