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i use a lot of different stuff to just call it price movement is far from what is actually taking place. i have my own market paradigms have certain areas where i feel like algos are at work exploiting retail etc.
i may take a stand point of ok.. where is the most crowded trade right now for day traders.. how easy is this bottom buy the dip.. seems like a great place to get some sell liquidity off fo the poor losing day traders who are clicking the mouse.. yes i click the moouse for my trades!
but the entire day about forcing contracts from "our your day traders hands " into the large companies and algos hands.. they need to steal your conttracts away from you and sometimes it is just best to exit and give them to them.. as fast as possible.. it is always cjanging. dynamic is an understatement.
FEES.. yes fees are high and way too high on the micros but there is a cost to learn and to get better with a skill.. nothing is free. fees are a cost of doing business.
if you are a businessman and make 20 % of your total expenses by the end of the year in profit then you did great.
same with trading fo rme. i NEVER think about fees. ever. i take trades i exit and i enter when i need to outside of worrying at all about fees. it is a cost of doing business.
if i paid 10 million in fees to make 1 million dollars this year.. am i going to be upset? NO.. but i would try to get more of those fees converted into my pocket next year .. fees can and do crush you over time.. but worrying about them too much will stop you from exiting trades that need to be exited. fees should not be an anchor that keeps you in trades ..ever for winners or losers.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
if you are a trader then you must understand standard distribution i.e. gaussian distribution.
1. the entire universe of futures traders is a standard distribution lets say .. not worrying about skew etc.
2. if you break it down
2A. winners= have their own distribution
2b. Losers = have their own distribtion
assuming we believe in a standard distribution of returns this means that not only do you need to be a winner consistently but you need to be a winner who is on the HGHER percentile rank or the edges of the distribution in order to really make a living and or say you are making tons of money.
the goal is to make money of course but understand that once you are in the money making league consistently then you are now competing with winners not losers and this is much much more difficult.
sure it is easy to make a little money for the day but you need to strive to be making bigger and better returns. my POINT here is that it is not just a challenge to be a consistent low money earner from trading but you
need to then distribute yourself in the curve of winners
3 there is large set of sometime winners and sometime losers this would be the largest area under the distribution sometimes they win and sometimes they lose but overall they lose due to commissions and fees.
the fees and commissions if added up are the difference between break even traders making and losing money;however, lower fees does not mean you would all of a sudden be in the winning camp if only trading were that linear. low fees brings its own set of challenges over trading etc. among other things.
the point of this post is not to discourage you quest but to make sure you understand that it is not good enough to say i am a winner this year or week or day or mnth you must make sure that you can make it happen with much larger numbers in order to make the time sunk into learning or watching or whatever it is you have done.
LOSING in trading is is much worse than winning from the stand point that you are not gainign any skills that are useful outside of trading for a job and you have only wasted serious time money and energy on
an endeavor that you are failing at over and over again. even if you succeed. it does not put you in the top 1 % of earners.. far from it.
again.. these are thoughts to think about ok.. that is all.. self awareness of what you are doing and goals are very important. in 1 month if ia m not profitable at the end of every week i am going quit this strate or figure somethign else out..
anyway there is no secret to it. it always changes so that is the secret.
what am i doing right now. sitting back.. looking watchng the mkts.. waiting. oil up big.. rates up.. all a drag on the sp500 IMO..
a lot of day trading longs just got butchered because they didnt exit on that big drop or they bought into it it prematurely.. im looking for a decent sell off again,.,. not too big but a sell because a bunch of retail just got long on this sell off at the bottom and that means the algos will gun for it and 4100 is pretty close
further more it is my belief that the market intraday always moves towards the least croded trade which means the direction opposite of your typical chart trade..
I plan on adding 3 more micro futures tomorrow and more
Nasdaq futs option calendars
I'm not stressed I'm not worried. This size is small and I'm looking for a retrace not an entire mkt regime change. Am I happy about my current losses on paper..no not at all but I also am happy for the opportunity to still believe in America. I'm a buyer
I don't even have 1 full mini nq in size on right now.
When this nq turns and it will very soon. I should have a great average price and good size on the reversal
This is how I swing trade. I take losses on paper holding and adding very slowly while intraday scalping and trading option exotics
I am down a total of 10,526 on this drop and set up for my reversal swing trade
I am long 1250 tqqq at an avg price of 29.70
Currently at 23?34 I am down 7,950
In my micro futures I have a 6 lot not even a full lot. My average price is
11,486 and I bought one at 11,943 and held it's loss this entire way down with no stop loss.
Mkt roughly 11423...I'm down 756 dollars on a 6 lot micro nq trade
On my options I have 14 and my avg price is 5,043
Due to margin etc my cost was much less than 5,043!
These are exotic l option trades. Just a fancy name for option ratios
Currently at 4923
I am down $ 1,826 on 14 lot options
This total is negative $ 10,526.
I am holding a 300 point update gets me into nice profits. My biggest issue on this trade was getting cute with the Tqqq. Rarely do u trade that and I didn't realize how quickly a 3x can move! I thought I trade futures how much can a 3x ETF fall in a week? Well I'm learning the hard way. Still looking for my bulls