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@PandaWarrior I've taken some of what you have been trying out with in my live trading and it seems to work.
Today was an exact mirror to yesterday, fake out and then pretty much a linear trend (for NQ). I made the mistake of trading on YM which was the weaker one. I've noticed that the ES NQ and YM are all generally directionally correlated, but one is stronger than the other two every day. Today it was the NQ and that is where I should have put my trades on. From what I've noticed lately, the stronger instrument moves farther in the direction you want and less so in the opposite direction and I'm going to try picking the strongest of the 3 to trade on each day.
You can tell the which one is strongest by where the bars move in the first +-15 minutes of the RTH open.
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I just found out for me that managing my trade @+100% of risk and then @150%+ of initial risk allowed enough trades to run to 2.618 reward to risk in DAYTRADING.
I need 25-35 rt's per week to have my edge play out very well.
For swingtrading methods I use 2 to 1 reward to risk and manage @150%+ of initial risk. I use 3 methods and they are each non-correlated.
I can't get my swingtrading win% much above 62% ish and in daytrading it is just a touch higher. I am a grind with size trader if I label myself.
I don't know how to dynamically raise my reward levels in terms of initial risk. I DO know how to add into open winners with additional w/trend or confirmed breakout trades.
This adds greatly to my overall profitability. Being a size trader takes care of some issues smaller traders have in terms of grinding out a quantified edge with size is still worth it just because of the absolute $$$'s being earned for the simplicity and routine of it all.
I don't watch the other two but I know what your saying...maybe just trade all three and ride the strongest one as far as you can....spread the risk and the reward around a bit....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
I've found this to be a complete waste of time. Supply/demand, political policies, regulatory personnel, production capacity...etc constantly change. I've read other threads where traders are looking at previous years behavior and predicting future results and I just want to laugh. Yes there are seasonalities across asset classes from year to year.....but to just rely on month over month data as some sort of probability factor is foolish.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Hi Hedvig,
Thanks for the reply. I'm not sure how it related to my post about win% and slippage, but that's ok.
I don't understand what you mean by manage the trade @+100% of risk. Would you mind explaining that more fully?
2R and 62% winners. I wouldn't label that a grind. Given random 2R generates ~33% winners, with roughly 37% needed to breakeven, I'd say you are doing much better than grinding.
A couple of probe trades today prior to the number. Those were scratch trades then flat for the number....wide open book, unsafe to enter.....then nothing with acceptable risk....missed the entire move. Done for the day.
Got a scratch on NQ. It went up, pulled back and if added. It went back up, reversed and I ended up scratching the whole thing. Of course I was taking a shower while that was going on and I left the house about ten minutes later....
So nothing today.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris