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The Russell has turned from the bull leadership to the bear leadership.
The RTY is the first one broke its Monday low and by looking at the monthly volume profile, there is not much can stop it to test 1631 level, the May monthly POC and high volume node.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
After NQ's breaking down from the channel structure, the longs in this structure are trapped hence creating a big bulk of overhead supply. Given the size of that structure, the only possibility for NQ to break higher is to first consolidate through time and space building a structure that is at least proportional to that of the overhead supply. Preferably, a bigger consolidation above the 7000 mark in the coming three weeks could pop us into the new high.
There is little doubt that the dow is the weakest US indices at this moment.
Look at the many failed attempts to pop up the market in the second half of June.
It is for the first time in many weeks that there is a sign that a base might be forming just above 24100 and the big number, 24000, just below the base has been tested for demand (or support). Next week I am going to watch the price action from 24200 to 24150 to see if there is enough buying interest. If the buyers are serious, they should be showing there.
Hey @shrekchenbin! I've been looking at market/volume profile lately, trying to understand and figure out how I might be able to incorporate it in my own trading... glad to have discovered your journal, looking forward to reading through it. Have a great one.
The technical picture of RTY is not pretty. First the consolidation range from 1678 to 1692 has turned from support to resistance rejecting the price from going higher early last week.
Then 1660 bull initiation point has acted as resistance on Friday. If 1632 were to give away next week, then the path of least resistance for RTY is to go for a retest of 1620 and 1600. So far there is no sign of base building yet. Hence my primal scenario for RTY next week is a bearish extension until strong buying appeared right at or below 1632 rejecting price from going lower.
Dow is trading at the upper end of the consolidation range. Two scenarios at play here:
1. Break out 24500 level and take off to 25000 in one go
2. Pullback before or after the break of 24496 fractal level.
To me the second scenario is much more plausible as plenty of bull's energy has been dispensed in yesterday's session that it would be much more sustainable if dow take a deep breather to build energy. Especially at this moment the overnight inventory is net long. There is a demand for the market to run over those overly enthusiastic overnight inventory before it takes another leg higher.
NQ is clearly the most dynamic one in the bunch.
It has taken out a significant swing high testing the lower band of the overhead supply created last month.
The supply structure at the top is of two weeks, for the sake of symmetry, it would take a consolidation base of two weeks to break the overhead supply structure.