20231212 pre market




News
we had cpi this morning
tomoroow we have ppi and fed meeting

Objectives
we are still sitting on a long flagpole and inventory of that medium term tf should be very long
We have a 15 day balance area out of which we try to breakout
the on explored higher but came back in after the numbers

Thoughts
A bigger liquidation would be healthy but in the last 6 weeks it simply did not occur
Do not try to anticipate a bigger liquidation
Rule no 1: See what is
We are in a strong up-move
As long as this status quo remains smaller pullbacks/liquidations/shake outs (you name it) are buyable
Go for small targets, do not sit on the flagpole
No trade is also a trade

20231212 post market



trades 12 12

• We had an opening drive lower
• i judged this move as beeing far away from beeing a gamechanger in form of a bigger liquidation
• So i bought it and scaled out conservatively
• Later for me there was not enough of an contra auction to buy again
• Wu Wei

Today i do not trade because of the fed meeting ...

20231214 pre market



News
-

Objectives
We have a flagpole on top of another flagpole
Bonds are up (interest rates down)
We open with a large gap up on top of yesterdays strong up-move
oni is completely long and we open at the top of the onr

Thoughts
Same as every day in the last weeks
The market is ultra bullish
At the same time inventory is already very long
Do not anticipate liquidations
Do not sit in longs long time
If you buy, buy breaks and scale out moderate
watch signposts, for example onh
rule no 1: see what is

20231214 post market



trades 12 14


Market tested lower but is coming back in
Seems to come in Baance a bit after the latest up-move

20231215 pre market


News
09:45 PMI

Objectives
The market broke out of a multi day balance and is otf up on the daily
It has alreay moved some way so it could come a bit into balance (this transition from up to balance is not easy to handle)

the on is inside y range
we open near the middle of y range

Thoughts
No reason to trade early and offensive here
Wait what the market wants to do and if an opportunity develops
no trade is also a trade

20231215 post market



trades 12 15



Comes into Balance as expected
Low opportunity day
Only did a few small size scalps
The structure was balanced/rotational/neutral
But most times on those days there is simply not enough "pressure" on the structure so that risk/reward is poor
Responsive trading (outside in) makes sense structurally but there is increased risk of getting shaken out because of that low pressure
Results in a nice inside day which confirms that we come into balance on the daily

anchored vwap daily from point 1




anchored vwap m30 from point 2



Blue channels are the devoloping value ares. In Overextended markets the top of it should be a first target for a liquidation
Main disasvantage of these anchored vwaps compared to fixed period (month, week) ist that the starting point is subjective
Possible starting points: Start of a move, gap, news event, etc

20231218 pre market



News
-

Objectives
We are coming a bit into Balance on the daily
Friday was an inside day
We open near fridays high

Thoughts
Generally breakouts from Balance (inside days) are potential breakouts
I would take this one with caution as we just came into Balance and this could take a few days
On the other hand if they want higher they will go higher ...

20231218 post market




trades 12 18




Market grinded up
Made a new high but had a low range (seems to run a bit out of steam)
I had an unnecessary short (later more about this)
Rule no 1: See what is. It grinded up, so i bought a pullback
No buyable contra auction in midtime

Catching Tops and Bottoms

First of all there is no clear rule like "when x do y" in trading. Trading is an art, not a science
In other words, it is never totally clear what to do. When everything is clear, the opportunity is gone
Some people say: Do not pick tops and bottoms
I think we should say: You have to pick the right tops and bottoms and avoid the bad ones
In a way we have to pick tops and bottoms in trading. If we wait too long we are too late and get a bad price, bad risk/reward/ etc
For my self i found that i have potential for improvement in avoiding some bad ones

For me it is a question of
1) Context and Level
2) Orderflow
3) Time of day

A picture perfect top (in sense of orderflow) consists of
1) Exhaustion (buyers running out of steam)
2) Absorption (sellers taking the last buys passively)
3) Initiative (sellers getting more active)

An easy and good rule of thump is to be cautious with poor and weak highs (auction not finished) and be confident on strong highs (auction finished)

But in realiity we do not get it perfect very often. We have to judge
When i like the context/level very much i accept less orderflow. Sometimes i have a limit order in because i want it anyway at a certain level
If i do not like the time of day but the other two are very nice i perhaps take it

My short yesterday simply was not a good trade in regards to all points that i take into equation
Its always great news when you find something in your trading that you know you can improve relatively easy
I can easily get better in avoiding bad tops and bottoms
Trading is about what you donīt do