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Now retouching 1.127, we've seen this twice since the end of last year. Those touches resulted in a strong bounce, it's possible. We've also touched the top of a larger downtrend channel. If we go back up, I want to see price reenter our up channel, if not, could be a new down channel. Volume has a consistent downtrend and our distribution is touching a low that was only hit once this year.
Fun week... Continuation of falling volume as we consolidate here at 1.25-1.32; Possible bottom of distribution on the 13th. We've reentered the very bottom of the up channel. I think it will be quite volatile as we pick a direction out of this area, probably more potential on the long side.
I agree short term we have the potential for some good bull action, but I believe the top side is limited... HTF is definitely bearish. Currently we're hovering around last quarter's low, bulls are gonna have to get past that and have it stick before they can possibly push up to February's mid point. They've popped above it twice now and that's where we stand currently.
I'm actually showing volume rising as EUR was headed down... taken a little dip here with the congestion. FX volume can be hit or miss unfortunately.
On the 4hr chart, we're at the bottom of a long term range, having broken through, and retraced back into the range. If this was a bullish (or false break), I would expect sudden rallies. We have had fairly limited rallies imo.
Overall, this mini-range at the bottom of the range suggests continuation, and has the appearance of a flag. Of course, ranges are unpredictable. But imo the higher likelihood is down until 1.1380 holds.
"It does not matter how slowly you go, as long as you do not stop." Confucius
Nice to see you back in action Jack Looking pretty bearish today... retail sentiment is still rather long so it wouldn't be a big surprise if we continued down.
Bulls pulled off a nice reversal today, I caught the run down toward the end of the Euro session but then got turned around in the NY session, took a bit to figure out what they were up to...
As far as a measured move is concerned, looks like bulls are targeting Feb mid point.. got pretty damn close today!
Choppy indeed. I wouldn't be surprised if it dips real quick on a stop loss hunt to 1.13 or lower, before continuing up. I'd like to see it move to 1.141-1.143, to watch it test resistance.
After that trend down week 3 weeks ago now, market has been in a tightening range with an upward bias. Last week's high, low, and VPOC are above those from 2 weeks ago.
For me, there's no trade here. Can go in either direction at anytime. One high probabiltity trade would be to fade last week's high and low for a scalp.
"It does not matter how slowly you go, as long as you do not stop." Confucius