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Classic Wyckoff Accumulation (daily)
Bag Holding
Shakeout
Effort vs. Result
Apex
A potential swing trading opportunity.
FX/currency futures will be tweeted in the near future (daily) and will be in the format we see via the chart. A knowledge of Wyckoff/VSA is essential.
(PDF attached 2 pages)
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Due to the nature of the charts being analysed; Stocks, currency futures, commodities, ETF's and so on, I do not want individual threads or to interfere with the continuity of the S&P Chronicles. Perhaps in the future, but for the time being Twitter will be used.
Feibel has recently talked about comparing similar bars so I spent a little time looking. Similar bars are quite abundant when you look...
You can see the 3 pairs of bars (or types) in the screenprint. One thing that struck me was you have to compare like with like, no use comparing a bar that closes at its low with a bar that closes mid bar... theres buying in it.
If looking for Supply, the blue bars close near the lows but have reducing volume, so downward pressure may be reducing.
The yellow bars are interesting, the 2nd bar has much reduced volume, but the price moves up nicely... lack of supply or frictionless as F says...
Please find a chart from today (23/jan), showing 3 similar bars in the pullback to yesterdays high.
Comparative and relative analysis must be used contextually correct i.e at a structural location, or the same kind of move (attempts to go lower using wave format)
Example: We do not analyse all down bars on the chart, as Ragic pointed out the bars would be abundant and the analysis would hold no meaning. It must be used in context: A down bar after price has rejected higher prices is different to a down bar at support that is trying to break. The very nature of the bar and what its trying to accomplish is completely different.
This is where the analysis will open up the charts and provide an edge. Using the example above; support would be the location where we would analyze all the down bars (using the relative and comparative approach) if volume declines, we dis-confirm the presence of supply.
In reference to the 5m chart and the coloured bars, first thing I would note is the wave structure, we cannot push this market lower, why? Using the comparative approach (last time at resistance (C) we reacted straight down, this time we test twice within 25m (D & E) on lower volume (we didn't react straight down) the buyers came in for another attempt fairly quickly (strength)
Now we pay attention to the wave structure; the average volume is is much lower than the previous down wave to A. If we dissect the wave into bars, the highest volume bar within this wave is bullish, Effort vs. Result (Bar 1), sticks out like a sore thumb. The blue supply bars you have marked, have little volume, but good ease of movement, however bar 1 negates negativity as demand overcomes supply (this action is strong, its attempting to hold a higher low (that's what this bar would accomplish) No follow through from bar 2, an instant buy via 3. Not only do we have a story of strength, the higher timeframe is strong (which is of the up most importance)
Bar 4 is an advanced trade setup (absorption) a personal favourite due to the lack of risk (absorption has been discussed in length previously) A few traders will mention the lack of demand volume as we push to resistance (the approach to 4), its important to remember we have dis-confirmed supply at 1, holding a higher level of support, a story of strength on both time frames, formed an apex along with classic absorption characteristics at resistance
The trade that you entered was excellent, however I do not see a reason to exit.
Apex
Shortening of the Thrust
Multiple Time Frame Analysis (setup)
Comparative Analysis
Subtleties of strength
Testing
Structure
Signs Of Strength
Waves
Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:
No demand (setup)
Stopping Volume/selling climax
Waves
Structural Confluence
Comparative and Relative Analysis
No demand rally
Background Conditions
Change of behaviour
New Momentum Low (setup)
On the 5min chart the entry at C, was it an "up bar" since it never closed higher than last bar, and is that necessary for it to be a No Demand bar? I thought No demands could only be on up bars. Also if I was late to recognizing it, how do you feel about entering with a limit order just under low of C bar with stop above and hope to get filled on retest if it happens?
I did not short at C or have a sell stop below it, but after the strong bar that followed I was more convinced to get short, I know this gives up some trade location advantage, but I thought would still make for a decent play, especially given the confirmed response to C, thoughts on that?