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Well, my team was one of the biggest traders of ES and NQ in the world. We traded 100% electronically with enough to consistently surmount fees. On either of those two tickers alone, I think we only sustained 6 consecutive weeks of positive trading a handful of times.
Where I think you happen to be right is that it is very, very tedious to run any kind of strategy to extract alpha along the time series for any specific ticker. This includes automated or algorithmic strategies (the point you're trying to make), but also any kind of news-based, macro-driven, fundamental, or technical strategy. Even with the knowledge and capital to do so, now that it's no longer my profession, I won't dare get anywhere close to that.
It's easier to extract alpha along the cross-section, but you also run into the problem that if you're just diversifying a portfolio, a highly diversified portfolio will just resemble the market portfolio, so it becomes cheaper effort-wise to just buy a broad market index ETF. And indeed, many of my friends who are accomplished traders or portfolio managers at work have 6-8 digit personal brokerage accounts with 90%~, in one case 100%, of their account in just 1 ETF tracking the S&P 500.
Question @ Chat GPT: "Day Trading - is it a good business?"
Answer from the AI chat bot:
"Day trading, the practice of buying and selling financial assets within the same trading day, can be a high-risk and high-reward business. It can be a good business for those who have the knowledge, skills, and discipline to make informed and timely trades. However, it is important to note that day trading is not suitable for everyone and can be a high-risk endeavor.
It's important to have a solid understanding of the markets, financial instruments, and trading strategies before engaging in day trading. A successful day trader must have the ability to quickly analyze large amounts of financial data, make sound decisions under pressure, and manage risk effectively. Additionally, day traders often have to put in long hours and be able to handle the stress and volatility that comes with the territory.
It's also important to note that day trading requires significant capital, as the margin requirements for day trading are usually higher than for other types of trading. This means that day traders must have a significant amount of money to invest, and they must be willing to risk losing that money.
In summary, day trading can be a good business for those who are willing to put in the time and effort to learn the skills necessary to be successful, and have the capital to invest. However, it's a high-risk business, and it's not suitable for everyone. It's important to understand the risks and rewards before getting started."
I have given this post a little thought. Yes, I am the all day trading software sucks guy. I have no course for sale. If I were a beginning day trader and just had to buy some software for trading I would include one filter before a purchase. Does the website that sells the software program advertise a social media account that is directly attached to the exact software program you are considering purchasing. A Twiitter account for example, where traders who have traded their software for one or two years can leave a comment they have no control over. If they can not or will not there is a reason and I would run. I knew of and had contact with a trader because we were in the same call your own trades camp. He had software for sale that would appeal to and was used by active day traders who called their own trades. It could be used in conjunction with a popular trading platform. He calls his own trades but what else does he sell, he sold a computer software mechanical day trading program. I did not like it. True story and be careful.
For example, looking at a TradeStation 01/25/23 NQH23 5 minute candlestick chart @1145(CST). Look at that exponential moving average bounce! That is about as clean as it gets. When you lean on software you get no appreciation or feel for a market move trade such as this. Some of these trades begin to look like art work. An exponential moving average bounce in the direction of a trend is an old tried and true trade that can be used on just about any market in any time frame, minutes, days or weeks depending on the market. We will call the Mov Avg Exponential (TradeStation) input length ~19 (some traders would use within 1 of that). I signed a disclosure agreement and will honor it. These trades are especially noted if the ADX (average directional index) is above 30. We will call the input for the ADX Length~13. This also shows that the older adage of do not trade the New York lunch hour does not always apply.
If you trade software, good luck. To me you are learning nothing other than the fact that this software is no good in comparison to what you could do on your own with hard work and a lot of practice.
A High-Frequency Day Trading firm just announced its earnings report for the quarter and the fiscal year. Virtu Financial made $579,000 PER DAY in its most recent quarter.
I do not even see the point in trading the futures market if I can not trade big size on ES or MES and make money trading every week. The stress and effort, would not be worth the reward.
In addition, trading the future markets for a living sounds a bit not interested and marketing.
I say, trade the futures market the rich as possible.
I agree, the goal is to make money every week in trading futures market.
That is very nice: $579K/Day profit! Now, what is the size of their trading accounts?
Persistence! Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence.
Talent will not ... nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent.
Genius will not ... Unrewarded genius is almost a proverb.
Education will not ... The world is full of educated derelicts.
Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent! Calvin Coolidge
I can look up the size of their trading account (also known as net capital) in their financial reports for you and will do that tomorrow. I have followed them for years. Doug, the CFO of Virtu, has talked about the risk of each trade and the subsequent reward. He understands well that it is not how much they make in profits. Rather, it is how much risk they must take in order to make the reward. His partner, Vinnie, was originally a floor trader at the NYME. They started with a small and proven strategy that they iterate.
Virtu had just a few losing days last year says Doug.