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# 2596 >>The wildcard for the currency and equity markets is Ukraine. Ambiguity is resolved by looking to higher time frames and the Monthly charts posted in the thread point to lower prices for the 6E.
# 2597 >>To add more significance.. breaking the Daily Pivot is a comment that would suggest the High of the Week is in place...breaking the Weekly Pivot is a comment that would suggest the High of the Month is in place. This Week's and last Week's lows, the lows of the 7 day double Bottom, were put in on the Monthly Pivot. So the breaking of this area of 6 Hr support has inferences that move up through the higher time frames.
# 2599 >>If this does what it looks like it is going to do then a test of the Monthly Pivot...is the likely next stop, but not necessarily the end of the longer term move lower.
... and the ES
I confess to conflicted emotions about profiting from the news out of Ukraine.
From two days ago: >> Price now has all the excuses it needs to take out the High of last week and a failure to do so will be telling. <<
What price does not do is occasionally more informative then when price performs as expected.
I have been looking at charts on an intra-day basis for 40 yrs now and have watched and profited from many extraordinary events. It is awe inspiring how price action will often tell us that something unusual is about to occur. Absent the news, I hope you can see how the narrative in this thread, the discussion of the cyclic action of price movement, has created a context where something of this magnitude should not be a surprise.
My contribution to this thread ends with this post. Hopefully you have found something here that will be of help in your trading.
To quote the great anti-hero Arthur Morgan. : " I gave you all I had. "
I've noticed this thread is still getting visitors so adding an update to this post found on thread page #247
A year has passed since the above post and in the updated chart below the white square at the beginning of this recent decline will sync these two in time. If you read thru the thread you can judge for yourself the accuracy of the analysis and the price movement projections both long and short term that were made possible with an understanding of Cycle Analysis.
Added to this chart are a Stochastic which is useful in visualizing the price rotations as well as suggesting Over bought and Over Sold conditions. Notice in this current decline the Stoch. is not yet deeply oversold.
Below the Stoch. is an oscillator which subtracts the black 4 period ma from price. In Cycle Analysis Theory a ma that accurately reflects the cycle duration it averages will become the center of price rotation. If you were to snap the black 4 period ma in the chart into a straight line, this is what you would get. The inner horizontals are set at .06 and the outer are .12 and .14. Aside from confirming by the rotations that you have found the correct periodicity of this Minor Cycle, the best use is as a divergence indicator. The extent to which price moves way from its center of rotation is an expression of momentum. Moves do not typically end on strong momentum but end when momentum wains as the other side emerges and denies further progress. Compare the swing highs of this indicator with that of price. In most cases over this 20 year period, as price pushed higher to new swing highs or lows this indicator put in a lower high or a higher low. The duration between these minor highs and lows was @ 5 months. You now have a means of anticipating the end of Multi-Year swings 5 months in advance.
I always do time projections on every time frame monitored. I do this by taking the average of the prior 5 High to High or Low to Low durations. I use 5 as 3 is too sensitive and longer averages don't take into account more recent behavior. To make this easy the Ninja Drawing Tools Fib. Time Extension tool has been set up to show a 120% projection. This gives the average of 5. On the chart you can see how this was set up in 2017 and I've numbered the rotations. These rotation counts are defined as the lowest low after price broke the cyan band middle. The dotted vertical is the 120% projection and it landed on February 2020, a projection made at a distance of 3+ years that was accurate to within 1 bar of the March Low. Now that you know how this can be done, do the next projection starting with the March 2020 Low and counting back 5 iterations.
You are welcome.
"If you don't want random outcomes, don't make random decisions."
I figured I'd jump back into my old favorite thread!
6E is a lovely pivot point cluster of the quarterly and monthly pivots.
RSI is screaming overbought.
I have next month's monthly pivot up from today's calculation. I can see the price heading lower and tagging the level under the arrow.
Not trade advice
EDIT:
This would be my alternative view. Probably more likely to happen. Had to add as I dug in a little more.
This thread has gone very quiet for a whole month. I am starting to think that "I will not trade 6E any more" must be a widespread New Year resolution?