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System did not take trade on wed but entered overnight at 2502.75 , overnight high was 2505 and now it is down to 2500 , so i am seeing some divergence here as the market is pushing to high but selling off or a chop.
system did not take trade as ATR is too low and still market moved from 2527 to 2532 , it is going for top after top .This is overextended arc , now it has to break - 66% chance it will slide down wed-fri ... 75% chance by 18th oct.
It has to be slick and quick as earning will start next estimate down 30-50 pts. this is my bias but system will go long on any dip , lets see what happens.
Again system did not take any trade ATR is low but I shorted as I was determined today will be fall day at 10:30am and it did not fall so loss of 5 points , $250 loss , this is what is called total mistiming.
My short hinch was not right , so it is very important in markets to quickly change your thinking specially on the short side. Otherwise you will keep on losing and people gonna laugh at you.
System did not take trade today , i tried to short but it took stop of 4 pts, -200 today.
I know it is not wise to switch to another algo In between , but my active brain has came up with another algo trading model which shows better profit for the year.
well here is the result of ma crossover variant:
it is consistent with the spy profit yearly but did not show losses in april which is good and drawdown is -2.2% .
I think this is best to run in conditions like these where market spectators are run by fed news and govt actions. And we don't know how long this will continue , last rally of 18 days was in feb , now it has done the same in sept -oct.
not much updates for friday , i did stay short and missed 3 pts ended with flat trade , system did not make any trade as expected because of low ATR. we are seeing a shift in sentiment of long opportunist and sleazy buyers . I am looking for a dip and then it will ready for the earning season.
This is kind of boring period where NASDAQ , SPY AND DOW all have to agree for a dip , then it will start.