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I agree. I have to admit I'm more fundamentally driven than technical. I believe that the news was priced into the market today, but was overcome by news of supply disruptions in Libya. tomorrow, I expect the market will come back to the fundamental reality.
I like how you guys seem to be more technical and am looking forward to learning from you.
makes sense and i hope to cross that bridge one day.
Thanks
My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
I am interested in understanding how you read/assess sentiment...
...fundamentals, to me, are essentially the supply and demand relationship peppered with news about how each of these might be affected...
...price action shows two essential things for me that is areas of congestion and momentum...
...if sentiment is bullish then I would expect to see momentum on up moves...to clarify I read bullish momentum as price action where higher lows do not penetrate the previous high...you could see this on a range chart during the fall and rally in CL last night...
I do not use an order flow tool, so I am wondering if this is how you assess sentiment...?
One other question is how do you know if news has been priced into the market or not?...maybe it is my inexperience but I would have no idea how to make this assessment...
Sentiment and Momentum, should only be used as secondary indicators.
First of all, would come the trend and analysis of the trend.
Secondarily, would come indicators such as sentiment or momentum.
Not something to trade on alone.
From my understanding of news with regards to technical analysis is that news has already been priced in. For me, once I have gotten a good handle on the major fundamentals operating here, such as the Saudis declaring they are not to lower production and the relationship to the American Shale Frackers. Any news for me, is simply turning away your ear from and not worth paying attention to.
On my learning curve, and to be honest is very much on the low end of the curve now, what my curiosity and study has brought me to recently is the crossover between the 10 SMA and the 4 day EMA. And then on to how to use a single moving average as a trend line.
Also, curious about the relationship to the dollar and oil, who or what is leading the way on that one. Just running in tandem or does one take the lead? I am not convinced that they are not just running in tandem.