Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
I cannot find words appropriate to describe how this academic, who has zero experience in the real world, is incapable of comprehending that his Marxist style intervention is creating the next crisis.
Yes, negative interest rates lower deficits. But who will buy the negative debt besides central banks? Why borrow money at all and compete against the private sector? Interest rates are negative to punish savers for saving.
.........
Economists such as Rogoff are still basking in the ideas of Karl Marx that government can and should manipulate society to achieve the public policy dreams of those in power. Rogoff is not willing to even think about what he has done to the pension system and how we are looking at states like Illinois becoming broke.
In California, less than four years have passed since it fought to achieve a balanced budget by raising taxes to the highest level in the nation. Politicians cannot manage the economy and negative interest rates are destroying pensions. There is no long-term gain, for Rogoff cannot imagine the next step. The central banks are trapped and can never resell what they have bought under Quantitative Easing. We are rapidly approaching the point of no return or no bid. That is when government tries to sell its debt to pay off the last chunk and there is no bid.
Doesn't make sense that China or whoever is buying tons of puts. The VVIX is declining, suggesting options on the vix are cheap, with a low expected move in the vix, translating to a low expected move in the indices . At least, that's my very rudimentary understanding of it.
Yes, well I don't follow and haven't tracked VVIX.
Do you know what the reading was prior to the last surprise devaluation?
(It took the markets down 10% in one day - prior to the US govt buying)
China devalued the yuan in a move that rippled through global markets, as policy makers stepped up efforts to support exporters and boost the role of market pricing in Asia’s largest economy.
The central bank cut its daily reference rate by 1.9 percent, triggering the yuan’s biggest one-day drop since China ended a dual-currency system in January 1994. The People’s Bank of China called the change a one-time adjustment and said its fixing will become more aligned with supply and demand.
In this thread I posted many different possible reasons and often by referencing others.
I don't know when a surprise fall will/would come.
I don't know what will be touted after the fact as the "reason"
When and avalanche comes down a hill people don't argue about which snowflake or sound caused it.
The avalanche people don't predict the day - only that there are dangerous avalanche conditions.
I'm a day-trader and my interest in the fall is an increase of down days.
The more often there are 20pt down moves the better.
I don't want to trade long side because of "flash crashes".
18 months after "fat-finger" Tuesday (complete with ridiculous rumours -- he typed a "Y" instead of a "T") they found the algo was programmed to sell without pause..
It's hard to figure out the exact timeline based on the articles. But here's what I found:
Looks like the first Yuan devaluation happened Tuesday, August 11, 2015 (well, Monday August 10 overnight in the US). VVix was around 81 on August 10, which is very low. Started rising, and was at 85 on Tuesday, 88 on Wednesday. The SPX crash didn't occur until the next week, August 20, 2015, and VVix had risen to over 100 by that time. VIX was close to 20. There was plenty of warning that people were buying puts on the market and options on the VIX.
If that information is correct, that article from ZH seems like a big conspiracy theory which does not align with the available data.
The above scenario is not what's happening today.
"It does not matter how slowly you go, as long as you do not stop." Confucius