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Thank you for your post and your compliments. I definitely went way out of the box to the point where I have something really unique, i.e., my own custom statistical software which have given me some statistically significant results that I would not be able to generate based on chart based trading alone.
The harsh truth like you're saying yourself is that 10 years probably isn't that long a time when trying to accomplish this alone without any profitable mentors to guide you or with an industry background. In a complete timeline I'd say it's probably 15 years on my end, but I like to summarize it around 10 years as there's been some breaks along the way and I have had other commitments such that it surely have not been 10 years 24/7.
Agree. My specific focus have been the e-mini S&P 500, so I have not spread myself thin.
I do believe my statistics give me an edge for determining the big picture, but still within the big picture there's volatility and it's not uncommon that I'm right on the day, but mess up by being too early or using too tight stops.
I wouldn't say I suck, but I definitely have rooms for improvement. Particularly the skill of being able to sideline or wait when things are not clear. Simple example being that my statistics give high probability outcomes at certain times, while more of a mixed picture at other times.
Ouch. I'm very much in debt. Partially due to trading and trading investments. So, if I were to wait until I'm debt free that would likely take me a few years.
Agreed. It's however also easy to fool ourselves into thinking that we are making progress. LOL.
But I agree. I'm much, much further ahead than 10 years ago, no doubt. And a big part of it simply being EXPERIENCE which I think there's no substitute for.
It’s only too easy to fool ourselves in trading thinking we’re doing great when making money and discarding any element of luck, while blaming ‘bad luck’ and external factors when things go wrong.
That said, I believe a common pattern have been that I tend to do very well initially being careful and risk averse and when things in fact go well applying that care, I start to get sloppy and greedy. A bad combination. And after the initial losses, my mind is set on making back what I lost taking on increasingly larger size and expecting more from the market than it may offer on any given day.
I would say it’s ‘primarily rule based’ like you called it. The statistics are 100 % rule based and based on objective data I suppose. But even within a statistical approach nothing is ever 100 % certain and the key is of course to ruthlessly cut my losses on the days where that’s the outcome.
I’ve tried to implement rules for entries/exits, but it definitely is the fuzzy part of my system as discretion is used. I’ve been trying to improve and will continue trying to improve this, but going 100 % rule based seems difficult.
And like I said in my prior post – even days where I get the big picture right there may be enough volatility along the way that I get stopped out even when ‘getting it right’.
I've certainly considered it. In fact, I once was funded with E2T and another time with OneUp. Last time I checked E2T seems like one of the better choices due to the fact that they actually set you up with a live account.
May I ask which firms you've had success with? Have you made any withdrawals so far?
currently using Apex, Bulenox,LeeLoo, and Topstep, I have got withdrawal with Bulenox a few times, 1 so far with Leeloo, a couples from Apex, will get some from Topstep next week, less stress when it is not your own money on the line, and take 1 to 3 trade per day, only trade from 9:45 to 11 AM EST,
Directional day trading focusing on capturing larger moves (but happy to take a smaller one if that's what's on the table).
Short term. Holding period on my average trade can be anywhere from minutes to hours, but always flat by end of day.
Discretionary, but my framework/hypotheses are based on objective statistics which gives me odds of what's most likely to happen on any given day.
For example, this Friday, the 1st of September. Statistically, I knew the odds favoured a move back inside Thursday's range and most likely we'd see a a close below the Open.
However, I also knew there was a small chance we'd see a move higher if the prior day high would hold as support.
So, initially, I went long twice with a 2 point stop out and a 1 tick scratch trade and then reversed short based on my statistical data + NQ leading lower.
I like using trailing stops to lock in profits, so didn't capture the full extent of the move, but ended the day with 7 points net.
I thought this thread was about throwing in the towel for good? Yet here you are trading again doing the same exact stuff you did before. Getting lucky and making 7 points after being stopped out. A 2 point stop with this volatility are you kidding!!!
Look another 10 years will go by in the blink of an eye and you will have even less accumulated real world skills and you will have missed out in promotions and pay raises and bigger benefits and accumulated vacation time.
Having trading on you resume for a large period does not help you at all it means you did not make it and you just kept at it and did not understand your own limitations. You have one life to live and let me tell you. There are way easier ways to make 50 to 100k a year then trading!!
Think about a gaussian curve which since you stated you use statistical analysis (bullshit day trading bs) you must understand gaussian distributions. Then take the GD and apply it fractally to different segments along the large GD. Say to the winning side which is say 5 to 20%?
So now you have a Gaussian distribution of the winners only. You can make 1 dollar after a year of being up 100k down 100k and you are still a winner if you made 1 dollar.
There are a ton of small winners and average winners and few enormously wealthy winners. It's a distribution obviously. So you can see most people even in this site are losers because they are just searching to win.
You shouldn't be searching to win if you are a net winner you should be searching to optimize and increase your winnings! But remember the resources and power of the big winners is enormous and they will use all means necessary to protect what they know and built and have established...would t you?
My point is that if you find it difficult to make money consistently it will only get harder to move up more in terms of money gains on the winning side. It's not a bet where it's like finding a buried a treasure or the cure for cancer where you are guaranteed to have wealth! It's still and always will be a struggle that will only get more difficult for mouse clickers. I am a mouse clicker and it's getting more difficult every month or 2.
Look at pro sports players kets say baseball. There are tons of teams and players. The league minimum is like what 300k I think. Unless you love playing baseball for a living and making 300k which is great but your better players make millions. Yes you are an amazing pro baseball player but you will never make a million a year.
That's the point of my statement. Just quit trading. You are not searching for a huge treasure or a huge patented payoff you are going to be constantly metal detecting beaches for the rest of your life looking for that one real treasure like the hope diamond that someone brought to the beach and forgot! Yeah right. Just quit trading it's a dopamine addiction.
There was no mention of using a 2 point stop. I said I took a 2 point stop-out (a loss) because I realized I was probably on the wrong side of the market. You can easily see what the outcome would have been if I used a 5 or 20 point stop.
Taking that 2 point stop out was the right decision. I only regret not taking a smaller loss.
100 % agree. This is my main concern.
However, I don't seem to have a good alternative that compels me in the corporate world. I just don't like being an employee.
I like to tell new people that making money day trading must be the hardest way in the world to make money, so no arguments there.
Keep in mind that I have a full time day job, so my trading is part-time (evenings here in Europe) anyway.
My data says otherwise.
I'll look into the rest of what you're saying.
Yes. Which is why my system is kept private.
Well, I'm well aware, so I'm considering it, hence this thread.
Curious. Are you yourself considering the same thing as you call yourself a mouse clicker or are you profitable?
Not sure why someone as successful as yourself was compelled to refute my statements which were broad strokes about most retail daytraders.
I am not the one starting threads about contemplating being out of the business. I don't care if you have a day job or a hand job, I took the time to respond to your thread to hopefully talk some sense into others who may stumble on your thread that's all.
Working in the corporate world isn't for you then do something you can make money at for your time and gain a real world skill. When you are a very successful trader then people want you to trade for them. You will turn down opm because you don't want the headache of dealing with people.
You did prove my point though...you are a part time trader with a day job who thinks somehow he will figure out trading while doing it part time and going back and forth about stopping and starting!!!
Most ultra successful day traders don't have jobs during the day because they are trading and making money.
I'm not meaning to be harsh or to pick on you but don't start threads asking for advice just to try and argue about other people opinions of exactly what you stated.
The correct response would have been.
Thank you for you input but I'm going to keep at it!