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Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,772 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,523
Thanks Received: 3,128
Interesting day for me.
Long from 4510 to 4540 with a quick and easy +30 points.
Long again from 4516 and got out @ 4486 for -30 points.
Essentially I gave up the gain due to lack of clear exit plan. My long signal worked like charm initially but I guess it made me over-confident and the trap was set! My second trade was also at a very good location but when we closed the gap, that should have been my warning sign that 'something' has changed and I should have been out. Perhaps for 10 points loss.
One of the drawbacks of public journaling, for me, is that it's very seducing to post my gain in the forum and I often noticed out-sized loss soon after that. hmmm...
Though I executed my thesis, I missed another 6 to 8 points to the upside. Still learning to read order flow to make sure I get the most out of my trades.
Then I did something I generally avoid doing. Counter-trade short from 88 to 80 for +8 points (theme was vwap test) and then reversed again to long with the expectation of new HOD later in the day.
Currently pullback is much deeper but my bullish bias persists and hence I added @ 72. Will likely leave till the end of the day or bail out if new LOD.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,772 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,523
Thanks Received: 3,128
Recap.
My MES trade yielded +16 points. Though my limit short @ 4458 was not filled post FED minutes, I didn't chase the price as my SPY short from RTH open to close was in place.
I mentioned before in my journal about the benefits of 'End of Day' Orders. You get the best possible exit during a more volatile trading environment.
I will be long from RTH open with SPY and let that stay till the end of the day. The only downside of this trade is that there is more than 50% chance of lower low today and hence I may have to sit through some unpleasant MFE. I could consider 1/2 size @ RTH open and 1/2 below Y-L.
With MES, I have the choice to be more discretionary and nimble. I will buy below Y-L and aim for a 30 pts ATR today. I do NOT think Y-H high will be tested today and hence my target will be in the 50 area.
The risk of gap closure is still lurking at reasonable odds of 35%. I will be fading any bounce and will likely hold this trade till the EOD. However, will NOT carry it over the weekend.
My bearish bias is weakened for now and If we make new HOD above 73, then my thesis is wrong.
I don't think I will be long in that scenario as gap closure is still a low odds scenario and the reward potential is low. If we make new LOD @ 51, then I will be tempted again to short the bounces..