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In the chart attached we can see every time the ratio VIX/VXV crosses below 1 in a bull market, ES seems to find a bottom. That means we can use this filter to enter the market using Ron's strategy knowing the odds of being right to be very high. Notice that the SMA200 has to be in uptrend.
We can increase the IM from 6 to 2. In this case when using the strategy the yield is higher.
The bad news is that since mid 2012 the filter could only be used 14 times.
Imagine we can use this filter 4 times a year. Every time the filter activates, we sell ES PUTS delta 3 DTE 100. If IMx2, then we make 6% of the account more or less. 4 times a year x 6% is a good yield.
I have tried to backtest the strategy using the filter but I don't know why SPAN spreedsheet has some issues in several periods of time. For instance I can't download 20160816 so it is impossible for me to backtest all the signals since 2012
I'm not sure why you can't get 20160816. I have it. Make sure there aren't any files dated 20160816 in the C:\Span4\Data folder, including both cme and nyb files, and try again.
One problem I see with your strategy is that you have no protection from an unexpected flash crash.
My current strategy is selling a 5.00 delta ES put buying two 1.50 delta longs at 90+ DTE. Use 6X IM. Exit at 50% drop in net premium.
It is making 26.6% per year. During the backtest it has never has a losing trade for the entire backtest which started 1/1/2013. 48 trades. Largest daily drawdown is 25.6%. Up 33.9% so far this year.
In 47 months it is up 156.1%. That is a yearly compounded 39.9% ROI over the 47 months.
@ron99 and others - Thank you for this great thread!
I have a question about your backtested statistics and how to get started applying this strategy. For a newbie, how/when do you decide to initiate a trade? For example, can you enter at any time, do you wait for a particular calendar date each month or wait for a predetermined net premium?
I assume the backtested statistics for this strategy requires one to be investing each month and not allow for discretionary trades? Looking for some guidance on how one might get started applying your strategy. Basically, my question is "When do you put on each trade?" Thank you in advance.
The back test had you enter a trade the same day you exited the prior trade.
I have found that trying to predict a better entry point rarely works. Just think about it. What will ES be on Wednesday? Next Monday? In two weeks? You can't say with any certainty. For every trade you enter on a better day there is probably another that you entered on the wrong day.
So I just enter new positions the day I exit prior positions or the next day. It's better to enter on Thu than Friday because the time erosion for the weekend drops the premiums on Friday.
There is a tendency of ES being up from the 2nd Friday to the 3rd Friday (option expiration) during the quarterly months Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec. But this tendency is slight for the other months. So you would sell the 2nd Friday.
Now if you are just starting out I would suggest maybe waiting until after the Dec fed meeting. Things will be very volatile until the announcement sinks in. Last year it dropped, 71.75, the couple of days after the raise in interest rates then went higher. But it feels like everybody is expecting the increase so maybe this year it won't have much effect. So even this suggestion could be wrong.
Thanks for the replies! I am looking at your spreadsheet and trying to understand the risk:reward ratio of selling options on futures. Let's ignore the "closing at 50% strategy" for the moment and simply look at the risk of the trade.
Let's use trade #48 as an example (9/27/16.) The number of contracts traded was 182 and the difference between the strikes was 270 points. If a full point is worth $50 and assuming a worst case scenario (cannot close early and index settles at 1500 on day of expiration - therefore 2 longs don't help), was the risk really (270*50*182) $2,457,000 vs. a best case scenario reward of ~$20,318? Is the R:R profile for this trade really 100:1? I must be missing something?
That's about correct if you ride the options to expiration and futures dropped 650 and you didn't exit early.
For example, if you went into a coma, your next of kin didn't know about the account, your broker totally ignored your account and the world markets were crashing far greater than any time in history yes that could happen. Extremely unlikely but not impossible.
But before expiration if futures had dropped 500+ then the 2 longs would have made a ton of money. Probably more than the short lost. The trick is to take the profit before the value of the longs disappears. That is one reason I suggest that you don't keep the longs when their DTE gets below 40. They will offer not much protection. Either roll the longs higher or just move the whole trade to a new position.
I have numerous examples of this trade if done on 8/17/15 before 8/24/15 that made more money than than the initial net premium because the two longs gained more value than the short lost.
Has anyone noticed unusually high margin requirements pertaining to selling options on ES recently? I utilize Thinkorswim and regularly sell ES options, however, the margin requirements the past few days has made initiating new positions impractical.
I am not sure if this is an exchange issue or specific to Thinkorswim (although they deny increasing requirements above SPAN minimum).