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Bulkowski’s % numbers are useless, even misleading. There is no such thing as “good” or “mediocre” patterns. For eg., there is zero chance his “statistics” for a “successful” bull flag also accounts for the same pattern as “unsuccessful” head & shoulder (as it appeared in real time). It’s all garbage, kinda like a repainting indicator...
All our belief systems are so far apart that it’s probably a good time to end this thread use whatever works for you and makes you happy 😃
Well, I'm still a beginner, and I live abroad..
Hard to say what I am... an investor, or a trader.......
I like Bulkowsky. His Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts Book, and thepatternsite.com
Charting, old fashioned school.
Trading: nq, es, Hype cool runner Ipo's months out short into lockup expirations. UVXY, TSLA options
Posts: 24 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 60
There is so much out there to learn. Two books off the top of my head are Beyond Candlesticks by Nison. Another is Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades by Scheier. Different things will speak to different people at different times. What we can learn from Chess Grand Masters is they continue to see the board and players differently over time. The same is true for many traders. Most opinions, viewpoints are a snapshot of where a trader is at that moment. I've picked up more outside of books than in them. Find the obscure interviews by massively successful traders that have not written anything. Bruce Kovner...paraphrased.... "Imagine different scenarios, take the one that confirms"...I'll add..."it helps to imagine the high probability scenario first...you may not have time to imagine the second." To do that one needs to know the high probability setups. It's a quicker, algo, a.i., puter driven market, different than when most books about the markets were written. You need probabilities on your side and still be aware the winners can be randomly distributed within the probabilities. You can have and edge and still get the losses up front. Need to know all the basics ..very well...then keep in mind in today's market things are recognized early and pushed then stepped on ..in other words they push the pattern or wave early then step in front of say a target or resistance. Patterns and wave force is everywhere its just seldom perfect form...they are tweaked bullish or bearish. Learn is all but realize its the "patterns or urges or force" behind the patterns which is classic..human behavior..just quickened and tweaked. Learn about cognitive biases. There are a zillion. The only way around them is to keep Bruce's motto in your head along w "if x occurs, do x1, if y occurs do y1". The human ego just wants to be "right". It will blow an account trying to be right. Be the algo, be the price, do what it does..you can do that or be the commentary in your head....After you learn then practice....like a golfer would. How many swings does a golfer put in before he turns pro? Knowing something is one part...executing it well is paramount. First one has to "see" the market then they have to be able to trade it. There is plenty out there on theory but very little emphasis on how to trade. The pro's like it that way. When you enter the market you are paying to play with pros. I'm sure Tiger Woods would love for you to play him for $. He might even give you some tips to improve your game before you play. Obviously I have had way to much caffeine. Anything by Charles Bukowski is good. Tradingsetupsreview.com has some decent price action info.. Good luck.
If you were an Al Brooks follower, the answer is clear. Correct: He does not publicize his trade results. However, in his trading room, he sometimes indicates trades that he has taken, and the outcome of each one. He is teaching and trading (more teaching than trading) at the same time. He has a great trust factor - If you experience his live room, you will understand.
Some of the 'experts' out there think that a professional must show his/her results before one can trust them. That is a marketing technique used to reel in subscribers that are susceptible to being easily led on.
PS: They may show their results from 5 - 10 years ago. What of today??? Are they still trading?
Yes, there are those 'experts that only teach but have never (or do not now) trade. It is up to the trader (you/me) to determine if he trusts any particular so-called 'expert'. It comes down to personal integrity.
I recommend that traders infuse themselves with as much information as they can handle. Take parts that work from various 'experts'. Do not simply latch on to one 'guru' for life - that may be a (financial and emotional) disaster, and grounds to complain that all 'experts' are charlatans if that 'guru' fleeces him/her out of his hard-earned money.
Take what works for you and leave the rest for another time. You may return to some of the other teachings as your trading evolves. In other words, do not discard what does not work for you today - there may come a time when that light bulb turns on and sparks a new chapter in your trading career. Remember what you heard in the past (and did not use then) that now makes perfect sense?
There is such a great breadth of knowledge out there to round out a person's education. Literally hundreds of strategies, both good and bad. Get out and learn as much as you can - it can be done without spending a person's life savings. Investigate and reap the benefits.
Ibelieve the markets do have random periods but there are also times when the market can follow patterns like a Elliott Wave count or a Fibonacci measured pullback.