1 Minute Man 

Very helpful, yes even your set up woth indicators is very simple easy to understand and I'm sure helps you see what you are looking for with easy of getting to a is this a trade yes or no conclusion

Thanks. Indicators are the third and final part of my trading.

The first part is analysis and preparation. Second is deciding directional play with entry points and targets.

I will give you an example from today with brief overview. We are in a strong bull market identified by price above short term 10 MA and long term 200 MA. Price closed higher yesterday but it was lower intraday, meaning RTh close was below RTH open. This pattern indicates to me that Bulls won but Bears gave a pretty good fight and didn't give up. This happened >300 times in the last 20 years and it's bullish. 57% win rate with profit factor of 1.3.

The next piece of indicator is the opening price and we gaped down 20 points but above Y-L. That happened on more than 50 occasions. Now the profit factor is even better at 1.6 and win rate is 65% for bulls. So I have decided my bias, based on stats, and considering going long.

Then the second stage of preparation. Entries & Targets. Please note that I prefer to hold for 1-4 hrs intra-day and my goal is to catch the main move of the day. Back to the analysis. What are the odds of the gap being filled and the Y-L, Y-H being taken out today?This is where it gets very interesting. The odds of gap closure by the end of the day is 75% which may appear bullish but the odds of Y-L being tested is also close to 70%. However, the odd of Y-H being taken out is less than 30%. Hope you are still with me.

How will this information help me plan my trading entries? I created a mental ATR of 40 points range from 5400 to 5440. This covers the above scenario I mentioned i.e Gap closure and testing Y-L but without Y-H. When we opend @ 5420 today, that's right in the middle of my 40 pts 'play range' with no clear edge. If I'm long there, I may have to risk 20 pts to make 20. Hence I waited.

Though I'm bullish intraday, I'm starting with shorts @ 5426 as the risk reward looks better at that level to target 5400 to 5405. EMA color system supported this, for now. If the trend beomes bullish, then I will take my loss and reverse. If it works out, I will take my profits below Y-L and will consider reversing to long and aim for gap closure by the end of the day. Since today is friday and we closed at ATH, I think it's likely that we will close in the same area as yesterday.

My current orders and short below. Working well so far.


Screenshot 2024-06-14 200640

HumbleTrader 

Thanks. Indicators are the third and final part of my trading. The first part is analysis and preparation. Second is deciding directional play with entry points and targets. I will give you an example from today with brief overview. We are in a strong bull market identified by price above short term 10 MA and long term 200 MA. Price closed higher yesterday but it was lower intraday, meaning RTh close was below RTH open. This pattern indicates to me that Bulls won but Bears gave a pretty good fight and didn't give up. This happened >300 times in the last 20 years and it's bullish. 57% win rate with profit factor of 1.3. The next piece of indicator is the opening price and we gaped down 20 points but above Y-L. That happened on more than 50 occasions. Now the profit factor is even better at 1.6 and win rate is 65% for bulls. So I have decided my bias, based on stats, and considering going long. Then the second stage of preparation. Entries & Targets. Please note that I prefer to hold for 1-4 hrs intra-day and my goal is to catch the main move of the day. Back to the analysis. What are the odds of the gap being filled and the Y-L, Y-H being taken out today?This is where it gets very interesting. The odds of gap closure by the end of the day is 75% which may appear bullish but the odds of Y-L being tested is also close to 70%. However, the odd of Y-H being taken out is less than 30%. Hope you are still with me. How will this information help me plan my trading entries? I created a mental ATR of 40 points range from 5400 to 5440. This covers the above scenario I mentioned i.e Gap closure and testing Y-L but without Y-H. When we opend @ 5420 today, that's right in the middle of my 40 pts 'play range' with no clear edge. If I'm long there, I may have to risk 20 pts to make 20. Hence I waited. Though I'm bullish intraday, I'm starting with shorts @ 5426 as the risk reward looks better at that level to target 5400 to 5405. EMA color system supported this, for now. If the trend beomes bullish, then I will take my loss and reverse. If it works out, I will take my profits below Y-L and will consider reversing to long and aim for gap closure by the end of the day. Since today is friday and we closed at ATH, I think it's likely that we will close in the same area as yesterday. My current orders and short below. Working well so far. Screenshot 2024-06-14 200640

Wow that is very insightful! I like the structure based on probabilities

My expected test of Y-L of 5408.5 did happen but it was quite feeble and I was hoping for a slightly bigger push down to 5400. We are back in the range and hence my trade thesis stopped working. Though I scaled in again, I lightened my position first and now fully flat. That's my risk management strategy and it paid off. Though it's a small profit, the goal here is to aim for a big profit without risking a big loss.

What's next? I am bullish but not too tempted to buy yet. I may actually short again if we breach 5420 and aim 5400 again. Perhaps once we flush out the weak longs, I will buy below Y-L. Let's see.

Happy weekend everyone.


2

HumbleTrader 

My expected test of Y-L of 5408.5 did happen but it was quite feeble and I was hoping for a slightly bigger push down to 5400. We are back in the range and hence my trade thesis stopped working. Though I scaled in again, I lightened my position first and now fully flat. That's my risk management strategy and it paid off. Though it's a small profit, the goal here is to aim for a big profit without risking a big loss. What's next? I am bullish but not too tempted to buy yet. I may actually short again if we breach 5420 and aim 5400 again. Perhaps once we flush out the weak longs, I will buy below Y-L. Let's see. Happy weekend everyone. 2

Nice journal, nice method
May I ask the source of your data/statistics? Do you just use long term historical data and crunch it your self, or? Thanks in advance!

md

COoneguy 

Nice journal, nice method May I ask the source of your data/statistics? Do you just use long term historical data and crunch it your self, or? Thanks in advance! md

Thanks. Yes, I use historical data from SPY ETF and tradingview has free access with pinescript. It's not too complicated but has a bit of learning curve and I do NOT have coding or technical background. There are also some data providers and I have used investiquant but they are quite expensive in 1500 to 4000 range. I have reviewed them in this forum. I saw an ad for edgeful which is lot cheaper with 1 week free trial but their output looks fairly basic. Not sure about any other providers. Good luck.

HumbleTrader 

Thanks. Yes, I use historical data from SPY ETF and tradingview has free access with pinescript. It's not too complicated but has a bit of learning curve and I do NOT have coding or technical background. There are also some data providers and I have used investiquant but they are quite expensive in 1500 to 4000 range. I have reviewed them in this forum. I saw an ad for edgeful which is lot cheaper with 1 week free trial but their output looks fairly basic. Not sure about any other providers. Good luck.

Thanks so much....
I currently have a subscription to Edgeful and am liking it. They seem super willing to run custom reports for the higher-end subscription level, but I am still exploring. Thanks for the tip on Tradingview and the SPY.

Have a great weekend!!

EDIT And I just remembered that Edgeful has some integration with Tradingview as well, although not sure of the details.

Next quantum leap with Nikkei 225 Mini futures.

Since I'm going to be in Asia for a while, I have decided to dance with Nikkei 225 for the next 3 months. I still trade ES but found it hard to focus as the trading starts @ 7 PM local time. I am having some success with DAX and will likely continue.

If anyone is interested in collobarting or simply sharing their trading process and results, please message me. NIKKEI 225 MINI'S ONLY PLEASE.

I don't expect you to share your indicators or secret sauce. Infact, I don't want you to. I have a fairly established process and system in place and quite happy with that. The only reason I'm reaching out is to increase my accountability and to reduce the loneliness in trading. Well, that's 2 reasons. Obviously I can continue to post here (and I will) but unfortunately I get very limited feedback from successful traders. My only request for interested trader is that you should have been a profitable or a break even trader for 2+ years. We can also make a small group of 3 to 5 traders if there is enough interest.

My daily goal is to capture atleast 70% of daily ATR of Nikkei 225 and I'm absolutely NOT interested in scalping. Since today is an auspicious day, I started with just 1 lot and got the divine signal to go ahead.

1


I am currently waiting for my CQG data to be linked with Sierrachart and hopefully it will be done in a day or 2. In the meantime, I am using tradingview data for now. It's not ideal as my execution strategy depends a lot on volume and tick data but it's better than IBKR.

I was on a treasure hunt, last weekend, reading SPOO thread here. It's unfortunate that activity has dried up quite substantially and hence lot of new members probably haven't spent some time there. Even if you had tried and then quit quickly, I don't blame you for losing interest because is it's huge, intimidating and can be confusing. However, trust me, it's worth at-least 20 trading books and you often learn things you will never learn from books.

You learn a lot from our legendary @tigertrader, obviously, but over a period of time several key players chimed in as well.

This quote from @rahulgopi in 2015 is a gold nugget.

"Lot of us tie our self worth to what we do. We tend to identify ourself as a doctor or engineer or trader. This ego identification did not hinder my progress as an engineer in the corporate world as the culture is to compete and project myself better than others. When I quit my job and started out as a trader, I told my wife she can quit working after a year and we can enjoy life in a tropical island . Fortunately she did not listen and we still have medical insurance and steady income . I do not want to speak for everyone but in my experience trading requires a completely different mindset than any other profession.

Fear arises when you tie your self worth to what you do. Without the need for self validation, talent and acquired knowledge flow naturally. If I experience fear, I am attached to the outcome which prevents me from seeing all the possibilities. Trader has to be an objective observer with a clear mind. Mark Douglas and other's call this the ZONE or SPACE.

One may have to go back and ask and answer the question, Why do you really want to be a trader ?. Have a deep look at your real motivation. If you are out there to prove yourself, your worth is tied to your success as a trader, then transcending the fear and ego may be difficult".

HumbleTrader 

I was on a treasure hunt, last weekend, reading SPOO thread here. It's unfortunate that activity has dried up quite substantially and hence lot of new members probably haven't spent some time there. Even if you had tried and then quit quickly, I don't blame you for losing interest because is it's huge, intimidating and can be confusing. However, trust me, it's worth at-least 20 trading books and you often learn things you will never learn from books. You learn a lot from our legendary @tigertrader, obviously, but over a period of time several key players chimed in as well. This quote from @rahulgopi in 2015 is a gold nugget. "Lot of us tie our self worth to what we do. We tend to identify ourself as a doctor or engineer or trader. This ego identification did not hinder my progress as an engineer in the corporate world as the culture is to compete and project myself better than others. When I quit my job and started out as a trader, I told my wife she can quit working after a year and we can enjoy life in a tropical island . Fortunately she did not listen and we still have medical insurance and steady income . I do not want to speak for everyone but in my experience trading requires a completely different mindset than any other profession. Fear arises when you tie your self worth to what you do. Without the need for self validation, talent and acquired knowledge flow naturally. If I experience fear, I am attached to the outcome which prevents me from seeing all the possibilities. Trader has to be an objective observer with a clear mind. Mark Douglas and other's call this the ZONE or SPACE. One may have to go back and ask and answer the question, Why do you really want to be a trader ?. Have a deep look at your real motivation. If you are out there to prove yourself, your worth is tied to your success as a trader, then transcending the fear and ego may be difficult".

Wow that is deep!

June 17 2024 Monday Prep

Rollover day is messing up my volume signals and hence I'm planning to trade half my size or not trade at all.

Stats favor a bullish close on a Monday after 52 weeks high. However, it's likely to be just a tad higher and in the range of 02 to 04%. Hence I'm targeting 5520. I'm still in the sidelines and waiting for a good entry, perhaps during the next push down to 5480. If that doesn't happen, I will probably end up chasing the price after succesfully testing 5500. Let's see.

Edit - Long 5497. Decided to take a bit of downside risk as sellers struggled to push below 5490. I will try to add to my winners.