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Great ideas @Grantx, @rassi (AWESOME post by the way!) I'll bite...
I think I did OK this week, ended up in the red but I know why. My positives were identifying good trades and holding on to the winners, but I have a tendency to let losers run longer than I should, and that coupled a few crappy, compulsive trades along with commission costs are what held me back.
For next week:
- I am going to switch from volume-based OHLC charts to time-based candles with wicks. Although I really like the additional information the volume charts provide, they can't be used if I want to SIM/replay in Sierrachart. Also, most traders (including the guys here in the competition) use time-based. It would be beneficial to be looking at what others in the market are, and useful for comparison purposes here.
- I will continue to limit myself to trading one contract for the time being.
- Psychologically, I will focus on creating the mindset of being a consistent winner.
- Preparation every day with news and a top down analysis (probably post this over in my journal instead of here, been neglecting that.) I'll continue taking notes in my paper journal.
- Pay more attention to higher timeframe charts, and not get caught up in short term, random action.
- Listen to the market, identify high quality areas and setups, and wait for it to come to me instead of trading in places I shouldn't. When the correct opportunities present themselves, right or wrong, I will not hesitate to take the trade. No compulsive trades.
- Define and accept my risk up front before the trade, will not move stops if a trade is going against me, and will cut losers short.
- I will stay focused on trading with the trend, but won't be afraid to go counter trend if a proper opportunity presents itself.
Hey this is kind of cool, at the end of next week I can review what I've posted here and see how I did.
A few takeaways from this week. After two days of flopping around a bit on Tues and Wed, I settled into a few best practices toward the end of the week.
1. I decided rather than try scaling in, I will just enter with both lots and take them off at 2 targets that will vary based on my analysis of the trade. Although there are appealing things about scaling in, forcing myself to enter with both makes me really commit to each trade and also takes one more variable out of my thought process. If I were trading a max 20 lots I'd definitely think harder about scaling in, but with 2 it's pretty straightforward.
2. I tried several fade entries (anticipating price) on day 1. On day 2 I tried several chasing entres (following price). For the rest of the week I thought more about finding the sweet spot inbetween, and relying on lower timeframes to help tune the entry. What I am trying to hone in on is something I have categorized as the "Armpit". See below mock up of a typical head and shoulders reversal, which is just a fancy name for a Lower High followed by a Lower Low. I've labeled a few different areas that traders might enter. I'm looking for the armpit nestled within the lower high, but depending on the scenario and how agressive I want to be I might take any one of these spots. The chart is almost never so simple as this and there are a few more basic reversal patterns but in the end the armpit is usually to be found somewhere in there.
3. I have come to terms with the fact that I am an impatient person, and it prevents me from being receptive. The last couple days I made a conscious effort to continue to READ the market as I stalk my entries, and it seemed to help me make better decisions.
The other day I was in a meeting at work, and I interrupted someone. The entire time the person was talking, I was thinking about what I wanted to say, rather than listening to what they were saying. I do this ALL the time, habitually. I've been conscious of it for a while but I need to put it in the forefront of my conscious and really work on it. Why? When I'm in a meeting and I think I have this or that great idea that needs to be heard, the most important thing is not getting it heard - the most important thing is getting it ADOPTED. My idea will have a better chance of being adopted if it is threaded in with the previous topics the group has discussed. It can't come out of left field. It has to be a contribution, not a decree. I need to help the team reflect on their own ideas and relate it to mine, to help them get where they didn't know they need to be. To do that, I need to actively listen, and try to respond in a way that synthesizes the previous into something new.
And not only at work, but in trading, my own intentions are interfering with my ability to LISTEN to the market. To READ the market. All that time the market is doing stuff, I'm thinking about where I'm going to enter and how I'm going to enter. I need to be listening that whole time. Yes, in the back of my mind I have the plan half-baked and ready to finish. But by listening to the market I might actually HEAR something that I didn't think I would hear. I might actually be like, WTF was that! That's crazy! (That's what happened in my work meetings when I actually started listening to people's wacky ideas). And who knows, maybe I'll find some new opportunities that way, or stay out of some bad ones.
@rassi
Thank you for the excellent post, which was both uplifting and critical. I'm ashamed to say that I have no written plan. Yes, I do have a set of patterns I have documented and look for: continuation patterns, reversal patterns, rejection candles, etc. But I don't really know how to go about creating a system of all that stuff; it's just a bunch of separate tidbits. I'm trying to figure out a way to use them to create a coherent story. I also don't have a way to measure my effort to maintain statistics or improve.
Here is my summary for this past week. On review, I can tell that my bias for gap fill clearly overrode all relevant information. The story of this week was:
A) Two days of consolidation where gap was the resistance. Clue #1
B) Downtrend started on tuesday night/wednesday with a second chance to enter the downtrend from the bottom of the consolidation
C) While there were Long opportunities, the juiciest and least risky were the short opportunities - to which I was blinded by my bias
Here are my trades and evaluation on a 5min chart:
Here is my retrospective review on a 15min chart.
I really am not sure how to convert my retrospective understanding into prospective trading.
"It does not matter how slowly you go, as long as you do not stop." Confucius
Interesting you mention all of that FM. I've been harboring some thoughts lately, haven't quite got the whole of it all connected but it goes something like this.
I think all of us, to a certain degree, try to impress our psychological perspectives on the market, when in all reality the market simply is what it is. There's really nothing we can do to change it because it is a huge collective of our peers, friends and competitors... almost incomprehensively vast. However, what we do have is the ability to control and direct our thoughts, our approach, our process, ourselves.
Interesting that in this hyper-competitive field, 90-95% will never make it happen... and that's just those of society that are even attempting to compete. What percentage of humans across the world would ever even consider trying to do what we are? Much less than 5% if I had to guess. Get a job, McFly...
So when those who are actually making it happen say you are competing with the best of the best, no reason not to believe it. They are the people who have recognized their own shortcomings, and managed to eventually overcome those obstacles/personal demons. They've managed to tap into a higher version of themselves that potentially existed before, and brought that version into reality.
In that regard, the market is a reflection of our true selves; you only get out of it what you can put in. To be successful trading is to be successful in understanding our own individual, innate natures.
This is what we're up against; not only the market, the HTFs, the algos, the big time guys, each other and everyone else who constitutes the 5%, but ultimately ourselves.
FIO helps us find like-minded people who are at various points on the same path of deeper personal understanding. I must be at the beginning of that path, because I suck at trading LOL But I'm certainly glad our paths have crossed and we can share some common ground on this most personal of journeys.
I have an idea for a tangible prize. All competitors will honor the winner by changing their avatar to the winner's avatar for the following month.
What do you all think?
"It does not matter how slowly you go, as long as you do not stop." Confucius