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I would say if you get a bar like that while in a trade, ask yourself what you would have done if you were not in a trade and if this changes your outlook. If you are short and you get an up outside bar and you would have gone long have you not been in a trade, I'd say stop and reverse. Otherwise just stay the course and continue to manage your short.
IMHO, not all outside and inside bars are meaningful. They only become meaningful in the right context. If context doesn't tell you anything or they are against what the market shows, then they are just random. For example an up outside bar in a strong downtrend is not strength to blindly go long with. It is potential strength, but could very well also just be a mini short squeeze and stop run run before continueing the downtrend. I would want to see more confirmation before changing my bias to long.
I think one point of caution is to measure the good w/ the bad. To have 'expectations' that you will not have crap out days is unrealistic. I have been reading your thread for about 6 months+ now and I can see your losing days are less and your up/down crazy days (like yesterday) are fewer and far between as well.
So, you are making BIG progress that is evident, but sometimes a person tends to be harder on themselves. I think most people would be very happy with what you have created for yourself. The trick for me would be to allow myself to really accept that.
Jeez... I missed a whole page while I was working!!
Good progress, my friend.
I learn much more from losing than I do winning...
I don't ever want to hear that quitting crap again, however!! We've come too far to turn back now.
I hate to ever criticize, but I feel I must. It seems your changing your chart a bit too often.
Let's settle on a chart / method for Mike's two week rule and let's see if we can hammer out
something we can feed the world with...
You may now bean me in the head with the rock your holding...
Well IMO for me I dont like stop and reverse its too impulsive - I find it hard to have a good objective analysis of a reversal trade while I am still in the current trade. There are plenty of trades without S and R trades. If I am in a trade and I see an OB closing strongly in the direction of my trade that is good thing and I will generally hold confidently for the planned TP. If there is an OB closing strongly against my position I might be looking to reduce risk. If it is an idescive OB closing in the middle of its range then well thats a doji and is indecision and it wont require particular action until the next bar prints to fill out the story. I like what was said earlier that Outside bars are not in and of themselves significant it is all about their context/location. Not sure if this is any use to you Az but hopefully is.
The good with the bad thing is appropriate. I am still working on the stoic thing at the moment. I have always lived my business life on the edge and I get excited when I win and bummed out when I lose. I'll get stabilized tonight.
THanks for the compliments and the well wishes....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
I have made some changes.....I thought about it today. I have not added anything other than the reversals indie and all that does is color the bars I am looking for. I have instead removed several things from the chart. Price action is so much clearer without all the shiny stuff on the chart.
At this point, I really believe it is all about what is between my ears....in other words, its all mental from here. I have good set ups, actual triggers and something I believe in.......But here is my promise, I will not change from where its at today.....for at least two weeks....
SO here is my set up for the next two weeks;
1. Primary trade chart....5M with my fib lines and the reversals indie.
2. 12 range chart with fib lines and a 15SMA.
3. A daily chart with a 50SMA.
A: Targets. 20 Ticks....trying to obtain 60 ticks a day if possible. Actually this is possible almost every day....even today had I executed well.
B. Stops. 20 Ticks and sometimes 30 if price is in an area i want to be in the market.
C. # of trades per day. 2-6 per day....any more than this means I am not trading well.
Set ups:
Basically pulll backs in a trend, looking for support/resistance and a reversal of some sort....that could be an inside bar, or a break above/below the previous bar in the pull back.
This can and should be confirmed by the range chart. This does not always happen but will look for this confirmation.
Ok, there it is.....its all about execution now.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
ok, this is your setup and masterplan for 2 weeks.
you can't change it...not even bar color (damn, i also play alot with this latelly!)...
we are watching you...(i hope we can help)
Good Morning AZ.
With regard to the above, it seems to me you put a lot of thought into the above, however after one not so good day you seem to have thrown some of it out. Mainly I am referring to the 50sma. Sunday it was your most likely trade to succeed and today it's gone. Surely if you want to use a 50sma it will have more relevence to your day trading on a 5 min or even the 12R than on a daily chart. As a day trader the Daily is only really of any significance when approching highs lows and the MA's. Maybe an hourly chart might suit your needs for the longer term picture better.
I think you are on to something with trading the 5min but using the 12R to fine tune an entry. Stick with it, as Mr Belushi once said. "Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbour, Hell no, and it's not over now. When the going gets tough the tough get going" We are with you, and your journal is an inspiration to me and others too I'm sure.
(No pressure there then!!!)