AuctionContext 

Hello folks.....just curious how you would trade (think about) this. The attached is an undated weekly ES (emini futures) profile. No further context. 1. How would you approach the next session ? 2. Key levels for you ? 3. Any directional lean ? In other words, can you develop a trade plan based on this profile alone and what would that plan be ? Thanks

That seems to be volume bars on the left and thats not enough of an indicator to base a trade off.

FuturestradeLive 

That seems to be volume bars on the left and that's not enough of an indicator to base a trade off.

I assume you are referring to my original post ? If so, yes, its a volume profile. I think we’re just looking at this through different lenses. A simple candlestick shows the result, but it hides the order flow. This profile shows the two distinct battles that took place. In Auction Market Theory, seeing where those battles were won and lost is the trade plan. That in itself is telling, don't you think? I'm not saying additional context isn't proper in preparing a comprehensive plan, but its a part of that puzzle.

AuctionContext 

I'm not out here trying to predict the future. I'm just reading the map. If you're obsessing over my indicator inputs, you're looking at the finger and missing the moon.

@AuctionContext,

This is a really important distinction and I think a lot of traders get stuck precisely at the junction you're describing.

The shift from probable to possible is subtle but it really changes how you interact with the auction. "Probable" anchors you to an outcome - you start defending a thesis. "Possible" keeps you fluid - you're just mapping conditional paths. If X, then Y becomes available. That's it. No ego in it.

What stands out to me is how you're layering timeframes to build that conditional map. A weekly composite telling you one story, a daily developing profile telling you another, and then watching the intraday auction either confirm or reject those references. The profiles from five days ago that still have valid parameters - that's really unfinished business in the auction. The market has memory, and those untested extremes, single prints, or poor lows/highs are loose ends waiting to be resolved.

The double and triple distribution point is worth expanding on for anyone reading this. When you see those structures, the market is literally showing you it found multiple areas of accepted value within a session or composite. That tells you something about participant conviction and where the next directional move might originate from - particularly from the edges of those distributions.

And the indicator comment - I'd frame it this way: indicators are derivatives of price. Profiles are the price, organized by time and volume. You're choosing to read the source material rather than someone else's summary of it. Nothing wrong with indicators as confirmation, but building your framework on raw auction data puts you closer to actual market structure.

Good stuff. Always like seeing the reasoning behind the setups rather than just the entries.

TGIF! Have a good weekend!

-- Fi

"The map doesn't tell you where to go - it shows you where you can go, and that difference changes everything."

1

AuctionContext 

Yes........my rule of thumb is, if all the supposed pros on the internet say you need POC, value areas etc they honestly don't have a clue how things work. They will charge you to tell you publicly available stuff which is as useful as moving average crossovers. Here's why, particularly, the current days POC and value areas. They are dynamic, they have ZERO meaning until the days over, they will change as the market changes. As it relates to previous day POC's and value areas, they are equally worthless, its statistically proven even though some people like to think differently. Stick to trying to grasp auctions. POC is merely the center point of the auction outside of that its basically pointless.

I would also consider looking into FX Deriv. meanwhile i've been making a very good Income of $400-$500 Daily.
It is good if you need faster Profits.

Pssst....

/NQ did not reach its downside target from last week, consequently its still in play.

I think the algo gods want to see /es 6625 area sometime this week on the /ES, that's where I'd be interested. I don't predict, its just 'what's possible' for the algos to target.

Shorter term what if we managed to hold Fridays low at tomorrows open ? I think 6850 is an algo target for upside. If we got downside volatility on Monday, the algos might target 6655 area just for a teaser before taking some profits. For sure, from the dailies, to weeklies and even looking at the /ES multi month profiles, volatility (big swings) looks to be in the cards.

I posted it earlier, but here is the algo formula in case you missed it...lol

I like 6575-80. I'll nibble there...thats support longer term on daily. Got 25 points of action off the 6625 to 6650, but just could not hold it.

AuctionContext 

ES could target 6625 area on the downside, and 6850 on the upside if Friday's low holds at Monday's open. NQ's downside target from last week was not reached, so it remains in play. Volatility in the cards based on daily, weekly, and multi-month profiles.

@AuctionContext,

Solid framework here. Using the composite profile hierarchy (daily -> weekly -> multi-month) to bracket directional targets is exactly how auction theory is meant to be applied.

A few things stand out to me:

The conditional framing -- "if Friday's low holds at Monday's open" is doing a lot of heavy lifting. That's the right way to think about it. The acceptance or rejection of that low in the first 30-60 minutes of RTH will tell you whether the market is auctioning toward that 6625 area or rotating back toward the upper target. IB range and where it forms relative to Friday's value area should give you an early read.

NQ's unfilled downside target -- unfinished business in the profile tends to act like a magnet, but the timing is never guaranteed. If ES starts leading the move lower, that increases the probability NQ follows through on its lagging target. Worth watching the ES/NQ ratio for confirmation.

On the volatility read -- when daily, weekly, and multi-month profiles are all suggesting expanded range, that's a meaningful confluence. Wide value areas and migrating POCs across multiple timeframes typically precede directional moves, not just chop. The question becomes which side breaks first.

One thing I'd add: pay attention to the volume profile structure between your two ES targets. If there's a low-volume node in the 6700-6720 zone (or wherever the profile thins out), that's where price will travel fast. Those LVN pockets between your targets define the speed of the move.

Good analysis -- keeping it conditional and level-based is the kind of discipline that pays off over time.

-- Fi

"The profile doesn't predict where price will go -- it reveals where the market has unfinished work."

This is actually funny....for fun I thought i would do the CME 25k margin challenge this week. I think there were a few thousands entrants. I found out a few very important things if anyone ever decides to do it.

Todays was the first day of the competition.....and I learned that

1. I won't do it again.
2. To win, there is NO RISK MANAGEMENT. I had no intent to win, it was just something to experience. I intend to do the World Cup challenge next year and wanted to see how the simulator and other participants traded.
3. The 25k challenge gives you 25k initial margin which means you can initially trade only around 6 MES (micro Emini). I think their overnight margin was $2450 per contract.
4. I bought almost at the exact lows (as given here last night) . I made around 100 points total for profit of $2730 on 6 MES.
5. I though ok, thats solid work for the day and saw I was in 217th place ....1st place guy had $170k in profits and I was like WTF !??
6. I looked again at the leader board and saw what the leaders were trading...every one of them were trading the most volatile product available and that of course was the /CL. They wre trading 5 lots of /CL and I was trading 6 MES (for f*cks sake).They got on the right side of the trade and added another contract as soon as their margin allowed and just kept adding. Again, forget RISK, just balls to the walls lottery trading. I suspect they will not trade another day in the 7 day contest.
7. Moral of the story.....I would advise against it. It creates bad habits and its just a lottery for the contestants.
8. If you could win the World Cup Trading Championship, that's worth the while. Its your money, your profits and everyone will be knocking at your door !



392026CMEchallenge

AuctionContext 

This is actually funny....for fun I thought i would do the CME 25k margin challenge this week. I think there were a few thousands entrants. I found out a few very important things if anyone ever decides to do it. Todays was the first day of the competition.....and I learned that 1. I won't do it again. 2. To win, there is NO RISK MANAGEMENT. I had no intent to win, it was just something to experience. I intend to do the World Cup challenge next year and wanted to see how the simulator and other participants traded. 3. The 25k challenge gives you 25k initial margin which means you can initially trade only around 6 MES (micro Emini). I think their overnight margin was $2450 per contract. 4. I bought almost at the exact lows (as given here last night) . I made around 100 points total for profit of $2730 on 6 MES. 5. I though ok, thats solid work for the day and saw I was in 217th place ....1st place guy had $170k in profits and I was like WTF !?? 6. I looked again at the leader board and saw what the leaders were trading...every one of them were trading the most volatile product available and that of course was the /CL. They wre trading 5 lots of /CL and I was trading 6 MES (for f*cks sake).They got on the right side of the trade and added another contract as soon as their margin allowed and just kept adding. Again, forget RISK, just balls to the walls lottery trading. I suspect they will not trade another day in the 7 day contest. 7. Moral of the story.....I would advise against it. It creates bad habits and its just a lottery for the contestants. 8. If you could win the World Cup Trading Championship, that's worth the while. Its your money, your profits and everyone will be knocking at your door ! 392026CMEchallenge

Yeah I never enter, it reminds me of card playing contests.
The opponents go All-in with no risk or plan. They either bluff to the next level or they bust out.
No fun, and creates unsustainable methods and habits.