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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
Why did I close? I believe I closed this trade at 98.00 even. The 618 retracement was 98.12, which is one possible exit, but I saw something on a 1 minute volume that said the move might need to pull back again. Plus, from my testing on a 6 range, the most common exhaustion move in crude is around 50-60 cents, so I was not too concerened about stepping aside for a pullback, which we did get later on.
For my style of trading, I put more weight in divergence on a 9 range shart than any other. Again, I don't know why other than having watched this over and over and over. My divergence indicator is something I played with until it did what I was looking for, but the important part is, notice the yellow line, how hard it was falling off. I got out of the long, as that indicator condition is a valid short trade signal in certain conditions. I exitted at 98.06, and the market did continue to around 98.34. I may have been disappointed in the exit in the past, but I know I cannot pick tops or bottoms with any great accuracy. The momentum was wearing off, and after the 98.34 peak, crude erased the entire up move up, plus a few ticks. I keep trying to sharpen my skills of observation, and am actually happy with myself for stepping out. Being in a position can play tricks with your thoughts. I keep striving to stay balanced, take good trades. The trade went in my direction, life was good.
