@Rrrracer Thank you for the comment. By the time we have found our way to being profitable as traders we look back and see how long, arduous and occasionally tortuous the road has been. In my own efforts over many years to help others I've decided that turning someone into a profitable trader is not a realistic goal. The most helpful contribution I can make is to at least get them pointed in a direction where they can help themselves. What is price doing? Why is it doing it? What is it likely to do next? Answer those three questions and you put yourself on the right side of probability.

From 8.27 : "You can see on the right that the Weekly bars have carved out a descending wedge pattern which traditionally is viewed as leading to a reversal. Price is also testing the support on the bottom inside edge of my custom S/R band, the breaking of which would be significant."

This is the 24 Hr Globex chart. Pretty good price rejection yesterday and if you look into why you will find a longer term downtrend line extending back to 06.01 as well as a possible completion of an ABC corrective pattern. Measured Move people will step into these patterns and coupled with the downtrend you have an excuse for yesterday's price action. That being said, I don't think this push higher is over. If you compare this current move with what occurred back at the end of March and you assume we are at the beginning of a similar move, then you can understand my expectation. In the prior push higher the first significant correction did not occur until the 5th week up so this behavior can be used as a model of what we may get here, if the pattern is going to repeat. If something else were to occur, meaning the ABC pattern that I'm am dismissing turns out to stand and price resumes the long term down trend, then obviously the comparison is not valid. Longer term I do think the downtrend will resume, but I do not think that will kick in until price sees 1.200. But I also recognize I could be wrong and a change in price behavior will point that out.





6E 60 Min chart. White circles compare today's overnight low with Monday's Low of the Day. You will notice that the 4 60 min candles of today's low found support on the new Monthly Pivot... not an insignificant event. Price is moving into the window where the 24 Hr rotation high is likely to occur. If you look 6 bars after Monday's Low you will see a test of the Sienna 6 Hr ma. This event typically marks the first correction out of a 24 Hr rotation Low. We have not had that correction yet.

Earlier: " If you look 6 bars after Monday's Low you will see a test of the Sienna 6 Hr ma. This event typically marks the first correction out of a 24 Hr rotation Low. We have not had that correction yet."

Six Hrs after the Low price tested the Middle of the 6 Hr S/R band and found support against the top edge of the Middle area... two ticks below is a horizontal Sienna bar which represents the Pivot of the prior 6 Hrs. In earlier comments I explained that I refer to this period as a Session Cycle and during each 24 Hr Rotation it is a significant marker of S/R.

That Price did not need to push lower into this Middle area to find support is, as you can see from the subsequent action, a sign of strength. Now 26 Hrs into the average 24 Hr Rotation, Price has marginally broken yesterday's High and is finding sellers but it remains to be seen if they will be able turn price lower from here. As long a price is making higher 60 Min Highs and Lows the trend is Up.

glennts 

Earlier: " If you look 6 bars after Monday's Low you will see a test of the Sienna 6 Hr ma. This event typically marks the first correction out of a 24 Hr rotation Low. We have not had that correction yet." Six Hrs after the Low price tested the Middle of the 6 Hr S/R band and found support against the top edge of the Middle area... two ticks below is a horizontal Sienna bar which represents the Pivot of the prior 6 Hrs. In earlier comments I explained that I refer to this period as a Session Cycle and during each 24 Hr Rotation it is a significant marker of S/R. That Price did not need to push lower into this Middle area to find support is, as you can see from the subsequent action, a sign of strength. Now 26 Hrs into the average 24 Hr Rotation, Price has marginally broken yesterday's High and is finding sellers but it remains to be seen if they will be able turn price lower from here. As long a price is making higher 60 Min Highs and Lows the trend is Up.

That played out nicely in today's price action. It's also easy to see similar behavior (bounces from 6 hr sma) on other days. Thanks for mentioning it.

When I first pulled up charts this morning, when looking at the daily and smaller time frames, my impression was that the bias was downward and I was trying to figure out how that figured into the upward move that I am leaning towards in the bigger picture. After looking over all the charts very carefully, it's pretty easy to see how having the weekly and monthly perspective really helps understand the different cycles going on within a single day's price action.

I'll try to explain it with charts. The first 2 charts show the "lazy approach" of not doing a thorough analysis. One could easily have thought the top of a range meant the signal to go short. Not to say it couldn't have played out like that, but the next 2 charts show the bigger picture that give a clue that we are possibly in a longer cycle up than what is shown on the first 2 charts. (Just kind of rehashing and simplifying your previous analyses. Hope you don't mind. )

Lesson learned: Be careful to do a thorough analysis.

Changes in behavior.

Earlier posts have pointed out the tendency for price to test support @ 6 Hrs out of the Low of the 24Hr rotation. On this chart white circles highlight these tests and if you compare what price is currently doing @7:30 Central, you will notice it is having to push lower in it's search for buyers. What this is telling us is that the Seller / Buyer Delta is more Bearish during this test than on prior tests of support during the multi-day advance. Is this conclusive? No. But it is a suggestion that in the short term this move high may be running out of steam. Notice the Stochastic wanting to turn and compare it with the Session Cycle test on the left and you can see a similar effort to turn that then resolved higher. Notice the two rows of blocks along the bottom of the price chart. The top row is individual Bar Delta. The bottom row is Cumulative Delta...currently negative. Compare this with the Cumulative Delta on the prior Session Cycle tests. My bias for the day is sideways to down.

If you find this chart and commentary useful please hit the Thanks button.

The indicators on my charts help me visualize areas of S/R from different time frames. When one area breaks I expect price to go to an area of S/R from the next higher time frame. When price broke the area of 6 Hr support mentioned earlier it fell to the white dashed line and reversed. This line represents the Middle of the 24 Hr Donchian Channel.... S/R from a higher time frame. As you can see this reversal led to a move to new highs on the day... which then reversed lower. I consider these types of violent moves as Stop Cleaners. Take out the Long Stop Losses and get traders Short, then make them cry by taking out the Short Stop Losses and getting them Long... and then break their hearts. A Double Bitch Slap.

Other than the shear sadistic nature of this manipulation, it allows those who are getting ready to bust a move to clear the decks and establish positions for what ever they have in mind. Although it can be nerve wracking to get caught up in these swings, it can be a sign that a push is about to occur.




Earlier charts have pointed out the potential value of counting H-H and L-L swing intervals. On this 5 min chart circles of same colors have been drawn around intervals of similar duration.

If you find these charts and comments helpful please hit the Thanks button.

glennts 

When price broke the area of 6 Hr support mentioned earlier it fell to the white dashed line and reversed. This line represents the Middle of the 24 Hr Donchian Channel.... S/R from a higher time frame. As you can see this reversal led to a move to new highs on the day... which then reversed lower. I consider these types of violent moves as Stop Cleaners. Take out the Long Stop Losses and get traders Short, then make them cry by taking out the Short Stop Losses and getting them Long... and then break their hearts. A Double Bitch Slap. Other than the shear sadistic nature of this manipulation, it allows those who are getting ready to bust a move to clear the decks and establish positions for what ever they have in mind. Although it can be nerve wracking to get caught up in these swings, it can be a sign that a push is about to occur.

I was wondering where you got into a trade today. Thanks for showing it on the 5 minute chart. Nicely done!!!

The white arrow marks the @ time of today's early post commenting on the break of 6 Hr support and how relatively deep price was pushing in the search for buyers during this first test out of the 24 Hr Rotation Low. After price found what it was looking for on the 24 Hr ( Higher Time Frame ) the next event would be a return to the broken 6 Hr Middle and test that level to discover if support had become resistance. If resistance were found then backside of the 24 Hr Rotation was likely the cause and this would confirm my "sideways to down" bias for the day. However, price pushed thru that level on strength and gave a clear "Nope" to my expectation.

One barrier to successful trading is Confirmation Bias. Interpreting input in a way that supports our assumptions and rejection input that conflicts with our expectations.

The first trade was based on the expectation that price would return to the Middle to test for resistance. When instead no resistance was found and a new Hrly High and Hrly Low were made with an increase in volatility it became necessary to recognize that if I clung to my earlier scenario I would be on the wrong side of the day.

"Although it can be nerve wracking to get caught up in these swings, it can be a sign that a push is about to occur."

If this chart and comments are helpful please hit the Thanks button.

If you have suggestions on how this series might progress or questions you would explored then post to this thread or send a PM.

Reading the tea leaves or.... how the POC can keep you out of trouble.



15 Min chart of the 6E. When bombs are dropped in the 6E it usually happens at 7:30 Chicago when economic news is released. A useful rule of thumb is "what is bad for the Dollar is good for the Euro".

On this chart from 3:45 on, price had an excuse to push lower looking for the Low of the 24 Hr Rotation. A White rectangle highlights a cluster of the Yellow high volume nodes ( POC ) of these 15 min candles from 4:15 - 6:15. When you see this occur you have to think "organized activity". Someone (s) has identified this area as the level to place their bets. If you consider the amount of time spent in this consolidation and convert that into shares bought you realize that a large amount of money is being put at risk. Entities don't accrue large sums that they are willing to put at risk by being wrong on their bets or to put it another way, they don't think there is much risk in making this play. Notice what happened with the 7:15 candle... it fell back into the 'zone' and found that the buyers were still there. The next bar found sellers in the area of 6 Hr resistance ( backside of the24 rotation ) but failed to push lower and closed as a Doji. Although what happened next is masked by this 15 min time period, price gaped up on the Employment Report, leaving my Buy Stop Limit in the dust, and pushed up to an extreme overbought level. Notice the 15 Min POC at 1.1900.. a Fat Number and good enough for whoever placed their bets earlier. Price then came back down to clean out all the Long Stop Losses before pushing up once again to the same 1.1900 level.

Fore knowledge of the report... of course.... how do you think they got all that money to play with.