NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Egypt's Morsi and Crude Oil price


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Fat Tails with 10 posts (26 thanks)
    2. looks_two bob7123 with 5 posts (2 thanks)
    3. looks_3 TheDude with 5 posts (2 thanks)
    4. looks_4 jta3 with 2 posts (2 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Fat Tails with 2.6 thanks per post
    2. looks_two jta3 with 1 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 TheDude with 0.4 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 bob7123 with 0.4 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 10,321 views
    2. thumb_up 36 thanks given
    3. group 8 followers
    1. forum 33 posts
    2. attach_file 6 attachments




 
Search this Thread
  #1 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
Developer
Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,605 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,342
Thanks Received: 101,966



Crude Cracks $102 As Egyptian Army "Ready To Die" - Live Feed | Zero Hedge

Morsi refuses to step down



Egypt army says ready to die in final hours | Reuters


Quoting 
(Reuters) - Egypt's high command said on Wednesday the army was ready to die to defend Egypt's people against terrorists and fools, in a response to Islamist President Mohamed Mursi that was headlined "The Final Hours".

The post on the official Facebook page of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), headed by armed forces chief General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, said: "We swear to God that we will sacrifice even our blood for Egypt and its people, to defend them against any terrorist, radical or fool."

Issued three hours after Mursi appeared on television to reject an ultimatum from Sisi that he share power with his opponents or face a military solution by 10:00 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT), a military source said the statement made clear that the armed forces would not abandon their demands.

So with that, let's have a new poll.

What's next for Crude Oil (CL)?

Total votes: 389
 


Please vote and discuss.

Mike



Join the free Markets Chat beta: Real-time Trading Insights

We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

Quick Links: Change your Username or Register as a Vendor
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $149 USD
Exclusive money saving offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers
Report problems with the site: Using the NexusFi changelog thread
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
MC PL editor upgrade
MultiCharts
tick data interval discrepancy
NinjaTrader
Forcing plots to disappear/reappear?
NinjaTrader
Quantum physics & Trading dynamics
The Elite Circle
Better Renko Gaps
The Elite Circle
 
  #3 (permalink)
 
afranco562's Avatar
 afranco562 
Los Angeles
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradeStation / NJ
Trading: Futures
Posts: 131 since Sep 2012
Thanks Given: 405
Thanks Received: 133


When not if Oil reaches the 120 mark will start taking out my Visa to start shorting it, the higher it goes the more it goes on my Visa, if need be will use my Master Card!

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #4 (permalink)
 
bob7123's Avatar
 bob7123 
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja, IRT, ToS
Broker: EdgeClear, LMAX
Trading: NQ
Posts: 668 since Oct 2011
Thanks Given: 134
Thanks Received: 2,682


Big Mike View Post


Crude Cracks $102 As Egyptian Army "Ready To Die" - Live Feed | Zero Hedge


So with that, let's have a new poll.


Please vote and discuss.

Mike

I'm not so sure Egypt is all that strategic for world oil reserves, in fact, I found this graphic on Wikipedia.



Actually, once I saw where the US fit it, I couldn't resist posting.

Also, I heard that the Brent/WTI spread was due to transportation problems within the US. Necessity being the mother of invention, I betcha they get that sorted. In fact, in typical team A fashion, we may well overdo it. When I googled "OPEC" this was hit #4:

U.S. oil boom helps thwart [AUTOLINK]OPEC[/AUTOLINK] - Jun. 19, 2013

I think a footnote should be "and China says thanks" but that is another story.

Looking at Brent as a more accurate judge of value, I'm seeing it flat. I can't see a push higher, unless there is more unrest and it spreads. [Keeping in mind from a Machiavellian perspective, a little bit of trouble is good for business.]

Finally, I see the long dated contracts are trading lover, so tossing a slightly weighted coin, I say 90.

Boy, I hope someone who actually knows something about oil posts here.

-Bob

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #5 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
desert CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, various
Broker: various, TDA
Trading: NQ,ES
Posts: 2,124 since Jul 2011
Thanks Given: 2,396
Thanks Received: 1,749

Heard that besides the regional instability affecting oil Egypt has very little involvement in the production of oil. Sympathies for the Egyptian people who are informed by the internet yet the fink they voted for soon after being elected actively eroded their democratic rights and acted very unilateral and isolationist like a dictator while kowtowing to Muslim influence. The opec countries meanwhile may possibly find opportunity in the distraction to raise the price of oil again while big oil does their part in raising the price of gas and local state and city govt's continue to bleed more gas taxes.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #6 (permalink)
Sayounara
Yokohama South Korea
 
Posts: 120 since Nov 2012
Thanks Given: 100
Thanks Received: 81

this latest leg went up too much with relatively little volume. feels like the final thrust of the uptrend. it probably will attract a lot of bystanders to join the long. and experienced traders will either unload their longs to them or go short near the top. so it's more likely to go down. I guess :-).

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #7 (permalink)
 
xiaosi's Avatar
 xiaosi 
Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: JIGSAW/SIERRA CHART
Broker: MacQuarie Futures/AMP Clearing/CQG
Trading: HHI, HSI, FDAX
Posts: 500 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 448
Thanks Received: 535

Just out...


Quoting 
(EG) Egyptian military said to take control of state TV broadcasting building - press (related EGPT GAF ) - Source TradeTheNews.com


Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
  #8 (permalink)
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 Fat Tails 
Berlin, Europe
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Keyboard
Posts: 9,888 since Mar 2010
Thanks Given: 4,242
Thanks Received: 27,104




I do not agree that the WTI/Brent spread has anything to do with Egypt.

The delivery for WTI is Cushing, Oklahoma. There was a growing surplus of sweet crude in that area, which could not easily be transported to the Gulf coast. Thus the price of WTI crude was kept artificially low compared to Brent, which better reflects world market prices.

This distortion had two major consequences.

(a) pipeline operators rushing to build new pipeline capacity to transport the surplus to PADD3 (Gulf Coast) or PADD1 (East Coast).

(b) hedge funds and index funds moving to IPE, as there was no permanent contango and risk of shortages


In terms of absolute prices, Egypt controls the Suez Canal, which is the major route from the Middle East producers to Southern Europe. If at all, an Egyptian crisis will increase the Brent/WTI spread, as Europe is much more affected than the US.

However, I believe that prices above $ 100 for crude oil are not sustainable. The US has halved its imports of light, sweet crude oil over the last year. It is likely that price will fall again. This is also indicated by the current backwardation, which could not be observed for at least 4 years.

Reply With Quote
  #9 (permalink)
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 Fat Tails 
Berlin, Europe
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Keyboard
Posts: 9,888 since Mar 2010
Thanks Given: 4,242
Thanks Received: 27,104

Had to leave when I made the post above. Here are just some arguments in favor of the above comments:



(1) Pipeline capacity Cushing:

Inbound deliveries to Cushing have grown by 815,000 bbl/day over the last three years. Until mid-2012 only a single pipeline was able to deliver crude from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast, which is the 60-year old 96,000 bbl/day Pegasus pipeline operated by Exxon Mobil.


a) Pegasus




b) Seaway

In May 2012 the Seaway pipeline, which originally shipped crude from the Gulf Coast to Cushing, was reversed, adding 150,000 bbl/day to the capacity out of Cushing. This pipeline was expanded by an additional 250,000 bbl/day in early 2013.

Home - Seaway Pipeline Project


c) Keystone

Keystone project from Cushing to Nederland, Texas with capacity of 700,000 bbl/day will begin operations in December 2013.

Gulf Coast Pipeline Project


d) Twinning of Seaway

The twinning of the Seaway pipeline should add another 450,000 bbl/day to the capacity, increasing it to a total of 850,000 bbl/Day.





Summary: Crude pipeline capacity out of Cushing is bound to increase by 1,150,000 bbl/day in 2013/2014.

As a result the NYMEX WTI contract should again trade at world market prices and the discount that could be observed during the last years should disappear.

It is all about logistics!



(2) Shift from NYMEX(WTI) to IPE(Brent)

Volume reported by CME (Source: Web-Volume_report_CMEG)

WTI, January - June 2012: 76,162 k
WTI, January - June 2013: 74,371 k - 2.4%

Volume reported by ICE (Source: Report Center - ICE Futures Europe Volumes for Brent)

Brent, January - June 2012: 75,754 k
Brent, January - June 2013: 81,162 k + 7.1%

Not sure, whether the absolute volume figures are comparable, but the percentages show a progression versus a decline.



(3) Backwardation, snapshot with current prices for the next 5 contracts





You can see easily see that the December contract (last line) is cheaper than the August contract.

Also you will notice that the political events of today have increased the slope of the forward curve, as the near contracts have shown a stronger percentage increase than the back months.

Reply With Quote
  #10 (permalink)
Pappa Justice
newark,nj us
 
Posts: 3 since Jun 2013
Thanks Given: 6
Thanks Received: 0


Hi all

I'm going for gold. Black gold that is. I believe the shift in bonds will give boost to stocks but ultimately that money will begin to flow into commodities, oil among some of them excluding others, like corn, GOLD. Egypt is so unstable. 20% +- unemployment. Small businesses are being affected by this political upheaval. I don't think it will affect oil supply but will definitely encourage buyers.

PJ

Reply With Quote




Last Updated on August 6, 2013


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts