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Stanley Fischer (Fed VC): "If foreign growth is weaker than anticipated, the consequences for the US economy could lead the Fed to remove accommodation more slowly than otherwise."
Had tightening "(US) data dependent" broadened to USD and foreign last week. Now: "more slowly than otherwise."
Mohamed El-Erian: "Prices-values are above fundamentals."
Values ratios for revenue, earnings, cash generation and leverage are now actually below long run averages.
B C 18,000 Q 2,000 P -200.00 BBRY 8.90 V 9.00
B C 5,000 Q 330 P -125.40 EWM 14.77 V 15.15
B C 19,208 Q 180 P -338.40 IWM 104.75 V 106.63
B C 7,770 Q 1 P -4,450 ES12-14 1836.00 V 1925.00 SL 1771.00 @ -8%
Total P/L -5,113.80
Cash 47,792.00
Net Liquidity 42,678.20
ES Initial margin 5,060
ES Maintenance margin 4,600
Excess equity 37,618.20
Notional value of ES 96,250
Max loss 53,571.80
Refs:
ES12-14 1829.00
NQ12-14 3727.00
TF12-14 1051.1
ZN12-14 129'09.5
QM11-14 81.525 VIX 28.20
USDJPY 105.719 (back down from 109.963 levels)
EURUSD 1.27992 (strengthening back up from 1.25047 level while DAX at new lows)
XAUUSD 1244.83
Very unusual lack of liquidity in futures book Monday causing huge swings. Precedent only in times of distress. Reports also of data dissemination problems at brokers. VIX spike above 30. Now back down.
Idea: monitor market liquidity and volatility for distress. Use as leading indicator. Cf. Greenspan OIS usage.
Trading: use liquidity as indication of bottom cf. 1987 / when to remove hedges.
SARS vs Ebola
SARS
Air borne vector
High mutation virus hard to vaccinate against
1 November 2002 – 31 July 2003: Cases 8,273. Deaths 775. Mortality 9.6%.
Primary region affected Asia.
29 cases in US and Europe. Zero deaths. Zero Re-transmission.
Ebola
Bodily fluids vector
Active vaccine development
Origin 28 December 2013 - date. Headline capture September / October 2014.
14 October 2014: 9,216 suspected cases and 4,555 deaths reported. Mortality 49.4%. Potential under reporting.
Primary region affected Africa.
17 cases in US and Europe. 4 deaths. Re-transmission in Spain and US.
Vision: US and Asia macro and company fundamentals solid. Ebola contained. Watch ECB and Europe on exit of Ukraine situation.
1. Copy or save .cs file to: My Documents\NinjaTrader [version_number]\bin\Custom\Indicator
2. From the Control Center: Tools > Edit > NinjaScript > Indicator
3. Click on file name in the list that is displayed
4. Press F5 to compile. F5 compile actually recompiles entire folder of .cs scripts.
It occurs to me that a fair percentage of indicators that have made it onto my NT7 roster belong someplace else. Can one of you brighter technology guys please tell me how to remove unwanted scripts from my NT7 roster as if they never …