Dow Student 

Making a decision to leave indices for oil and nat gas futures for my Day trading, curious from any energy traders about a macro or micro watch list of markets and events I should keep a eye on throughout the day ? Thanks in advance Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

I wow you made a great choice. I don't know about nat gas but oil will move on any major geo-political news. Any conflict in oil producing region will send the oil price higher instantly.
Every Wednesday at 10:30am the US gov releases oil inventory numbers. The order book gets pretty thin and price usually moves at least 40 ticks right after.
The dollar really affects oil as well so keep an eye on that.
9am ET to 2:30pm is the unofficial pit trading hours for oil so expect the biggest moves during those hours.
9:30am ET when the stock market opens, oil gets volatile as well.
Any inflation numbers and central bank decisions cause oil to move also.

I will add others if I can think of them.

-Blackgrey45

CRUDE OIL MARGINS EFFECTIVE 11TH AUGUST

Maintenance margin as follows (Initial Margins, ie non-member rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / Sep23 increasing from $5800 to $6200 +$400
Tier 2 / Oct23 increasing from $5700 to $6000, +$300
Tier 3 / Nov23 increasing from $5500 to $5700, +$200
Tier 4 / Dec23 increasing from $5300 to $5600, +$300
...
Tier 16 / Dec24 increasing from $3800 to $4100, +$300
...

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2023/08/Chadv23-236.html

News affecting the oil market this week:

5.85 million barrels build in crude stocks from the Wednesday report
China economic data pointing toward deflationary pressures
OPEC committed to production cuts in latest news
Fed interest rate hike looks less likely after this week inflation data

Price action: Sept. contract in crude hit a multi-month high at 84.89 at about 3am ET before selling off about $2 per barrel to around the $82.90 mark.

Sideways choppy action today, maybe crude is just taking it easy before the next leg higher. No new highs today. No new news to speak of in the oil space. Although I think price is nearing the top of the range I think the market will push new multi month highs shortly.

Fundamentals for crude look strong. Demand is strong. Supply is constricted by OPEC+ at the current period in time. The only fundamental doubts rising are the future demand in China and a possible strengthening in the dollar. Reports are saying deflation is a possibility in China prompted by recent economic data. Im looking at $1.0800 and lower in the euro for the strong dollar to start having an effect on oil.


Blackgrey45

Bulls :- Demand is fine (but not great) and the market can't handle these opec supply cuts. Only reason market has been balanced for the last 18 months is because of SPR sales and that's ending.

Bears :- Demand is plummeting, PPIs in much of the world severely negative, China storage is full. OPEC knows all this and it is why they are cutting, meanwhile US production is back to all time highs.

Couple of the Macro guys I follow always point out that commodity markets overly focus on supply and not demand. The OPEC cuts haven't really materialized yet, in that it takes months for that oil to get to its destination, so we will only start to see the impact of those cuts to physical stocks in a few weeks/months time. Meanwhile where is demand going? Are we going to have a recession? How much will China buy?

SMCJB 

The OPEC cuts haven't really materialized yet, in that it takes months for that oil to get to its destination, so we will only start to see the impact of those cuts to physical stocks in a few weeks/months time. Meanwhile where is demand going? Are we going to have a recession? How much will China buy?

Would you say the oil market has discounted the cuts already with the six week runup in price or is there still more room to go higher?

Oil down over 2% today. Headlines are saying weak economic data from China spurring the selloff. I think the price is at the top of the yearly range and it is time for a pullback.

Some July China Data:
Bank loans down 89% from June
Unemployment 5.3% vs. 5.2% forecast
Industrial output YOY 3.7% vs. 4.3% forecast
Retail Sales YOY 2.5% vs. 4% forecast
Mining Output up 1.3%

blackgrey45 

Would you say the oil market has discounted the cuts already with the six week runup in price or is there still more room to go higher?

Firstly let me clarify that while I do trade lot of crude (and natgas) I'm predominantly a relative value spread trader and not an outright trader. So I'm not sure how much weight I would put into any opinions I have on market direction. Saying all that, maybe not surprising but the answer to your question is 'I have no idea!'. Most of the physical oil guys I know have been bullish (due to OPEC supply cuts and SPR sales ending) the last few months and have done well. Most of the macro guys I follow are bearish (expecting reduced demand) and have done poorly despite being correct (especially in China) on demand. Sorry not more useful

The central bank of Russia raised the short term interest rate in Russia 3.5% to 12% in an effort to fight inflation and a declining ruble. I thought this was worth mentioning since Russia is a major oil producer.