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Appreciating the insights on your trading! Your analogies over in TSJ have really helped me grasp some fundamental concepts. And not sure who you were communicating with on your July 15th post here, but inspiring. Thanks man.
That would be my wife. who has increasingly become a source of motivation and a sounding board for ideas. Even though she herself is not a trader, she has taken an interest in talking through ideas with me and it's immensely supportive. I can safely say that if it wasn't for her I'd be eating cold hot dogs for breakfast every day.
I spent the better part of the long weekend trapped in a carbonite shell. I am slowly peeling off the broken pieces and emerging from my hibernation prison. What I thought I'd do today as we come rounding the …
I was sitting on a nice long trade in 20-yr notes. I did end up closing that on June 5 for a gain of 2R. The below chart shows a Box around the duration of this trade. One can see the basic premise of this trade was a pull-back after April breakout back into support, looking for a continuation.
I then had a couple of losses. First was a very quick 1R loss in Gold Miners long. Similar setup to above, was entering in the range anticipating a break out. Price fell back below my support level and took me out. Chart below shows a box around the duration of this trade, only a couple days. Top left corner of the box is my long entry.
The second loss took a month to pan out. In retrospect this was a low probability fade without a decent sign-of-weakness pattern to support it. I shorted the Dow from June 13 to July 14 for a loss of 1R. In the future if I'm going to take a countertrend trade like this I will look for a little more than just a channel top. Want to see climax and failure at the top. The box below bottom-left corner is my short entry.
So the 1 Win and the 2 Losses canceled each other out. I'm currently in one position, my longest duration trade so far, a long in 20+yr treasuries since June 29. I entered too early, but I sized this position very conservatively and gave it a lot of room. Currently up about a half-R. Idea was a pull-back after breakout, but I knew my entry could be early and so I let it travel back through the breakout down to secondary support, which fortunately has held so far. When price made a higher low in late July I was very tempted to add to this position, but currently that is not part of my trade plan so I did not. Something I will consider down the line. In below pic, the box bottom-left corner is my long entry. This trade is still open.
I figured as much, got a little sentimental reading it as it reminded me of my gal Amy and her support of this crazy pursuit I'm on LOL. Trade well man, looking forward to more.
WARMUP DAY (sim trading)
CL is getting dumped pretty hard the last few days. Not sure what the macro is there but technically this is a pretty straightforward retracement of the run from 42 - 50.
Keeping it simple today - want to get in only on the right patterns, and not miss them. Pre-market we are challenging yesterday's low and I'm open to a counter trend BO into VWAP, preferably above VWAP. Or, buyers can't muster it and it's open season heading down. Looking for clues either direction - those little failed pushes and pulls - to give me a jump.
I sat out the overlappy action in the pre-market and missed a setup for a short to a new low in the first few minutes. Every new low was getting bought up and eventually we made what looked like a higher-low higher-high so I called that a change in direction and took a pull back entry for +13 (sim). If I had to pick a favorite setup that first pull-back after a likely change in direction might be it. Marked today's chart up with a few Grimes-ian pattern names here. Failure Test. Pullback. Anti. Breakout-Pullback.
My schedule is shifting around a little bit, with kid 1 starting a new shool which opens earlier. I took this trade while holding a baby. Not sure how this is going to settle out but I'll just keep doing what I'm doing until I need to change things significantly. In the words of the great thinker Dr. Ian Malcolm, "Life, uh, finds a way."
Footnote - just walking back to my attached garage after the kids go off to school, a black cat (I have no cats) runs out of the garage into the house and spooks out the back door. Good luck to come? Never would have happened with my old dog still around. My little dog is unfortunately no deterrent.
Back to live trading this week, but I won't be able to trade Tuesday and Wednesday. Today CL is pressed up against the bottom of the 49 - 50.50 range. Action is still strong considering the pressure from above, and we seem to be building up energy for a move higher. Sellers want to get this market below 48.50 to start.
No trades for me today. A little too tentative maybe on the short side.
CL recovering gradually from its Monday slump, pushing up near the top of yesterday's range and trying to make its way toward 49. A mixed bag here, with the daily pattern leaning upward but under the hood on the intraday resistance is holding and 48 even is not too far away for a break lower. Neither of these 2-dollar-wide hypothetical channels are very compelling as we are in a broad, choppy indecision wedge.
Getting into it here just a little past the bell. Open was extremely weak, price creeped up just shy of ONH and then dumped to new LOD. I'm a little tentative to short agressively here as we are extended to the bottom of a 2 day channel, in addition to the bottom of the 5-day wedge pattern. However, I'm still leaning short and just have to see what presents itself and if a break lower seems doable, not be shy about getting in on a good setup, win or lose.
Once again, no trades. Had the right idea though.
I'm simmering on ideas for adjusting my method somewhat. Lack of trades is irritating, but could be the market or I am just rusty. Sitting tight for now and keep on trucking. I know the best traders can adjust to the market and that may be what I am missing is another "gear" to switch into.
I am again late to the screen today as I slept through the alarm. CL tilting lower but still range bound.
Rushing through the morning prep. Plan for the open is look for a sign of weakness and short around vwap.
I was right about going short around vwap but I fully botched the entry. Ended up taking a little bounce after we spiked through .50. Kept a short leash on it and bailed after it went 2 ticks from target. +5.
So an earth-shattering +5 for the week. Next week we'll see if I can get back on schedule, better prepped, and less hesitant on entries. Over the weekend if I have the time I'll replay, trying out ideas that would put me in the market more frequently. My market read still seems to be improving overall. I want to try to come up with more / better execution strategies.
I'm really focusing on learning context, and it definitely seems your read on things has improved. Can you tell me what it is that you were looking for when you mentioned signs of weakness?
