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- Exited my long position in London Cocoa
- Exited my short position in the Brazilian Real
- Entered a short position in the 10 Year Notes
Below are comments on my open positions.
M6E – Euro
Trade: Long 3 contracts of December Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.131
Stop: 1.131
Weekly Comment: The Euro dipped early in the week but bounced back later in the week to finish the week only slightly lower.
MCD – Canadian Dollar
Trade: Long 3 contracts of December Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7592
Exit Price: $0.7592
Weekly Comment: The Loonie was lower all week but held above the recent lows and rallied strongly on Friday after positive economic data to finish the week slightly higher.
NK225M – Mini Nikkei
Trade: Long 2 contracts of December Mini Nikkei
Entry Price: 19,220
Stop: 18,890
Weekly Comment: The Nikkei continues to follow the 20 SMA up. Prices were lower on Friday but finished off the lows and held above the 20 SMA.
CC – US Cocoa
Trade: Long 1 contract of March Cocoa
Entry Price: $2,046
Stop: $1,888
Weekly Comment: US Cocoa was lower this week falling below the 50 SMA but bounced from the 100 SMA on Friday. If prices don’t hold here around the 100 and 200 SMA’s ill exit the trade.
C – London Cocoa
Trade: Long 1 contract of March London Cocoa
Entry Price: $1,606
Exit Price: $1,538
Result: -2.1R
Weekly Comment: London Cocoa continued lower on Monday and I exited the position on the close. Prices continued much lower later in the week trading back below the recent support level at 1510-1520.
6L – Brazilian Real
Trade: Short 1 contract of December Brazilian Real
Entry Price: $0.30335
Exit Price: $0.3104
Result: -1R
Weekly Comment: The Real closed above the 50 SMA on Monday and I exited the position. Prices continued higher on Tuesday before falling back later in the week to close back near the 200 SMA.
Weekly Comment: Uranium was sharply lower early in the week but held above the 20 SMA and held this level for the rest of the week. I attempted to add the final tranche to my position on Wednesday at the 20 SMA but prices didn’t quite get low enough to trigger my entry.
ZN – US 10 Year Note
Trade: Short 1 contract of March 10 Year Note
Entry Price: 124 30/32
Stop: 125 10/32
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices are trading back below the 200 SMA again after the large moves following the election and intersected with the 50 SMA for the first time since it crossed down below the 200 SMA.
Fundamental: The Fed is expected to continue raising rates.
Reasons for Stop Placement: Above the early November highs.
Weekly Comment: The Notes traded slightly higher early in the week triggering my entry on Tuesday. Prices fell quickly from there trading down near the recent lows but bounced strongly on Friday after the Flynn charges trading all the way back up to the 50 SMA but finished the day well off the highs.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
ZS – Soybean
Soybeans were lower early in the week but the held above the 200 SMA. The 50 SMA is in the process of crossing the 200 SMA and I may take a look at having one more shot at the long side of this market.
ZO – Oats
Oats tested the 200 SMA early in the week but held this level. Looks like the 200 SMA has moved with the contract roll.
GF – Feeder Cattle
The Feeders were sharply lower on Friday. If prices trade back down to the 200 SMA I may look at taking a long position.
OJ – Orange Juice
OJ was lower again this week but still hasn’t traded low enough to intersect with the 50 SMA.
SB – Sugar
Sugar was unable to trade up to the 200 SMA this week trading back down to the 20 SMA.
TW – MSCI Taiwan Index
The Taiwanese stock market was sharply lower on Friday. If prices continue lower and intersect with the 200 SMA I may look at taking a long position.
- Exited my long position in US Cocoa
- Entered a long position in Mini Soybean
- Rolled my long position in the Mini Nikkei from December to March
Below are comments on my open positions.
M6E – Euro
Trade: Long 3 contracts of December Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.131
Stop: 1.131
Weekly Comment: The Euro drifted lower this week finishing lower each day of the week.
MCD – Canadian Dollar
Trade: Long 3 contracts of December Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7592
Exit Price: $0.7592
Weekly Comment: The Loonie couldn’t surpass the 50 SMA erasing most of the last week gains on Wednesday after dovish comments from the BOC and finishing the week back down near the recent lows.
NK225M – Mini Nikkei
Trade: Long 2 contracts of March Mini Nikkei
Entry Price: 19,220
Stop: 18,890
Weekly Comment: The Nikkei was lower early in the week before rallying to finish the week only slightly lower.
CC – US Cocoa
Trade: Long 1 contract of March Cocoa
Entry Price: $2,046
Exit Price: $1,888
Result: -1.05R
Weekly Comment: US Cocoa failed the 200 SMA on Tuesday triggering my stop in the process. Prices continued lower for the remainder of the week.
Weekly Comment: Uranium gapped higher to start the week after news of more production cuts but wasn’t able to follow through and take out the recent highs.
ZN – US 10 Year Note
Trade: Short 1 contract of March 10 Year Note
Entry Price: 124 30/32
Stop: 125 10/32
Weekly Comment: The Notes continued to find resistance at the 50 SMA falling again from this level in the middle of the week but are still holding above the recent lows.
YK – Mini Soybean
Trade: Long 1 contract of March Mini Soybean
Entry Price: 10.24
Stop: 9.83
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices traded above the 200 SMA again. It’s 3rd attempt to break this level recently
Fundamental: Reports of poor production in Argentina were the likely source of recent strength.
Reasons for Stop Placement: More than 1% below the 200 SMA.
Weekly Comment: Soybeans gapped higher to start the week and continued higher on Tuesday and initially on Wednesday. I chased the entry on Wednesday and prices reversed straight away to finish the week back at the 200 SMA.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
6L – Brazilian Real
The Real was sharply lower on Thursday closing back below the 200 SMA. I’ll wait for the 50 SMA to trade down through the 200 SMA before thinking about having one more shot at this trade.
ZO – Oats
Oats traded down through the 200 SMA early in the week. The price action on Wednesday triggered a trade for me but I could not size the trade within my risk tolerance parameters so I have an order waiting above the market for any bounce.
GF – Feeder Cattle
The Feeders traded down into the 200 SMA at the end of the week. I wasn’t watching the markets late in the week so wasn’t looking at this trade.
OJ – Orange Juice
OJ traded down to the 50 SMA early in the week. With the weakness across the board in the softs I decided against the trade and will wait to see if prices trade down as low as the 200 SMA.
GC - Gold
Gold broke down through the 200 SMA on Tuesday and continued lower for the remainder of the week. The 50 SMA is close to trading down through the 200 SMA and prices trade back up to test these levels I may look at a short position.
TW – MSCI Taiwan Index
The Taiwanese stock market was lower again this week but has not yet made it down to the 200 SMA.
- Exited my long position in Mini Soybean
- Rolled my long position in the Mini Euro from December to March
- Rolled my long position in the Mini Canadian Dollar from December to March
Below are comments on my open positions.
M6E – Euro
Trade: Long 3 contracts of March Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.1375
Stop: 1.1375
Weekly Comment: A mixed week for the Euro with prices dipping early in the week before bouncing back in the middle of the week and then drifting back to finish the week practically unchanged.
MCD – Canadian Dollar
Trade: Long 3 contracts of March Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7612
Stop: $0.7612
Weekly Comment: The Loonie was higher in the middle of the week but found resistance again at the 50 SMA falling on Friday to finish back down near the recent lows. If prices continue lower and close below the 200 SMA I will move on from this trade.
NK225M – Mini Nikkei
Trade: Long 2 contracts of March Mini Nikkei
Entry Price: 19,184
Stop: 19,184
Weekly Comment: The Nikkei drifted lower this week but continues to hold the 20 SMA.
Weekly Comment: Uranium was higher this week making new highs for the move and is now closing in on the February highs.
ZN – US 10 Year Note
Trade: Short 1 contract of March 10 Year Note
Entry Price: 124 30/32
Stop: 125 10/32
Weekly Comment: The Notes moved lower to start the week but held the recent lows and rallied strongly on Wednesday after the Fed made dovish statements at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting where they raised rates again but price found resistance again at the 50 SMA.
YK – Mini Soybean
Trade: Long 1 contract of March Mini Soybean
Entry Price: 10.24
Exit Price: 9.83
Result: -0.92R
Weekly Comment: Soybeans dipped below the 200 SMA early in the week. I tightened my stop coming into the WASDE and was stopped out on the close on Tuesday. This is my third and last failed attempt at this trade and also my last long trade in the grain markets for the foreseeable future with losses in this sector now -5R for the year on the long side.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
6L – Brazilian Real
The Real remained below the 200 SMA all week closing below the 0.30 level for the first time in a while. The 50 SMA has almost moved down through the 200 SMA and I may be interested in taking one more shot at this trade near the intersection of these levels.
ZO – Oats
Oats held the 2.40 level at the start week and traded higher for the remainder of the week to close back near the 200 SMA. I’d prefer to wait for the 50 SMA to turn down through the 200 SMA before contemplating selling Oats.
GF – Feeder Cattle
The Feeders traded above and below the 200 SMA all week but closed above this level. I’m looking to see some strength back above the 200 SMA before contemplating a long position.
OJ – Orange Juice
OJ traded down to the 200 SMA in the middle of the week. I held off the trade to see how prices would react near this level and it failed on Friday closing below the 200 SMA. I’ll need to see some strength back above the 200 SMA to contemplate taking a long position.
GC - Gold
Gold bounced higher on Wednesday after the dovish statements by the Fed. I’m waiting for a move back up towards the 200 SMA before contemplating a short position.
TW – MSCI Taiwan Index
The Taiwanese stock market was slightly higher this week and remains above the 200 SMA.
Trade: Long 3 contracts of March Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.1375
Stop: 1.1375
Weekly Comment: The Euro was higher this week climbing back above the 1.19 level but remains in sideways pattern at the moment.
MCD – Canadian Dollar
Trade: Long 3 contracts of March Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7612
Stop: $0.7612
Weekly Comment: The Loonie tested the 200 SMA early in the week and bounced from this level. I looked at adding to the position at the 200 SMA but I was a day late and prices didn’t test this level again before rallying strongly to finish the week back above the 50 SMA on the back of strong economic data.
NK225M – Mini Nikkei
Trade: Long 2 contracts of March Mini Nikkei
Entry Price: 19,184
Stop: 19,184
Weekly Comment: The Nikkei was sideways this weeks and remains capped below the 23,000 level.
Weekly Comment: Uranium was lower this week falling sharply on Friday down through the 20 SMA. I may look to add to the position if prices continue lower down to the 50 SMA.
ZN – US 10 Year Note
Trade: Short 1 contract of March 10 Year Note
Entry Price: 124 30/32
Stop: 125 10/32
Weekly Comment: The Notes were sharply lower early in the week on the back of the passing of the tax cuts taking out the recent lows.
MGC – Micro Gold
Trade: Short 2 contracts of February Micro Gold
Entry Price: $1,278
Stop: $1,295
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices traded back up to re-test the 200 SMA after recently breaking this level and also intersected with the 50 SMA for the first time since it crossed down below the 200 SMA.
Reasons for Stop Placement: More than 1% above the 200 SMA.
Weekly Comment: Gold continued to move higher this week intersecting with the 50 and 200 SMA’s on Friday where I took a small short position.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
6L – Brazilian Real
The Real was unable to trade back above the 200 SMA early in the week and traded lower later in the week to close back at the 0.30 level again. I’ll be looking to sell any rally back towards the 200 SMA now that the 50 SMA is about to cross down through the 200 SMA.
ZO – Oats
Oats tested the 200 SMA at the start of the week and failed trading back down towards the recent lows BY the end of the week. I’ll be looking to sell any rallies back towards the 200 SMA.
GF – Feeder Cattle
The Feeders failed the 200 SMA this week and come off the watch list.
OJ – Orange Juice
OJ failed the 200 SMA this week and comes off the watch list.
TW – MSCI Taiwan Index
The Taiwanese stock market continued sideways this week. I’ll continue to monitor for any weakness to establish a long position.
Weekly Comment: Uranium found support just above the 50 SMA during the week and finished the week slightly higher.
ZN – US 10 Year Note
Trade: Short 1 contract of March 10 Year Note
Entry Price: 124 30/32
Stop: 125 10/32
Weekly Comment: The Notes were higher this week trading back up to the 20 SMA.
MGC – Micro Gold
Trade: Short 2 contracts of February Micro Gold
Entry Price: $1,278
Exit Price: $1,296.50
Result: -1.08R
Weekly Comment: Gold continued higher this week reclaiming the ground above the 100 and 200 SMA’s and closing back above the $1,300 level. I didn’t like this trade from the moment I put it on and I should have closed it out straight away rather than waiting for my stop to get hit.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
6L – Brazilian Real
The Real remained below the 200 SMA again this week but wasn’t able to rally high enough to intersect with the 50 SMA which has now crossed down through the 200 SMA.
ZO – Oats
Oats traded sideways this week. The 50 SMA has started to turn down and I’ll be looking to sell any rallies back towards the 200 SMA.
SB – Sugar
Sugar rallied strongly this week trading up towards the 200 SMA which is just starting to flatten. I may look at taking a long position if the 200 SMA is surpassed.
TW – MSCI Taiwan Index
The Taiwanese stock market was lower early in the week but just didn’t get low enough to touch the 200 SMA and trigger my entry before bouncing to finish the week higher.
MINIFIB – Mini MIB
The Italian stock market was sharply lower on Friday. If prices continue lower and intersect with the 200 SMA I may look at entering a long position.
