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Trade: Short 4 contracts of December Eurodollar
Entry Price: 99.08
Risk: 99.14 risking $600
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars traded in a small range today closing at the 20 SMA.
HE – Lean Hogs
Trade: Short 1 contract of October Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.6025
Risk: $0.6220 risking $0
Target: $0.46
Daily Comment: Hogs traded both higher and lower today before finishing the day practically unchanged posting an indecisive candle.
Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
GC – Gold
Gold traded up to the 61.8% retracement level again today but was unable to close above this level.
ZL – Soybean Oil
Soybean Oil was lower during the overnight session coming back to test the 34 level but recovered to finish the day slightly higher posting a candle with a long lower shadow. I had an order in to buy during the dip but I was too greedy and the price didn’t trade low enough to trigger my order before reversing.
SB – Sugar
Sugar rallied back up to the 61.8% retracement level today before reversing to finish the day off the highs and post a candle with an upper shadow.
CL – Crude Oil
Oil continued its recent strong run up today surpassing the 61.8% retracement level of the recent range. If the break is credible the potential target is $61.44
DX - US Dollar Index
The dollar continues its downward momentum trading down to the 61.8% retracement of the recent uptrend. If this level breaks the potential target could be 88.34.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I added to my Eurodollar position and took a long position in Gold today.
GE – Eurodollar
Trade: Short 5 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar
Entry Price: 99.08
Risk: 99.14 risking $750
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars were lower today closing back at the 200 SMA.
HE – Lean Hogs
Trade: Short 1 contract of October Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.6025
Risk: $0.6220 risking $0
Target: $0.46
Daily Comment: Hogs finished the day higher posting a bullish full bodied candle.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,345.50
Risk: $1,334 risking $575
Target: Short term - $1,419, Long Term – $1,619
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Gold has been trading within a tight range between the 61.8% retracement of the recent range and the 40 SMA. Prices have been well supported at the 40 SMA posting a series of higher highs so I took a position at the next intersection with the 40 SMA as it approaches the 61.8% retracement level in anticipation of prices breaking this level.
Fundamental: Uncertainty caused by Central bank policy is driving the price of Gold.
Daily Comment: Gold was lower today posting a bearish full bodied candle but held around the 40 SMA again.
Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
ZL – Soybean Oil
Soybean Oil was lower during the overnight session coming back to test the 34 level again today but recovered to finish the day only slightly lower posting a candle with a long lower shadow. I tried to be less greedy today and moved my order to just above the 34 level at 34.03 and missed the entry by 1 tick with the low of the day at 34.04.
CL – Crude Oil
Oil traded both higher and lower today finishing the day slightly higher and posting an indecisive candle.
DX - US Dollar Index
The dollar bounced from the 61.8% retracement level today finishing higher and posting a bullish full bodied candle.
- Added to Short position in Eurodollars.
- Entered a Long position in Gold.
- Submitted orders to enter a Long position in Soybean Oil but was not filled
I’ll start the weekly update with comments on my open positions and attempted trades.
GE - Eurodollar
Eurodollars attempted to rally early in the week but prices quickly traded back down to the 200 SMA. The case for a bearish move in Eurodollars still looks good at this stage and I would be willing to add to this position on a close below 99.04.
HE – Lean Hogs
Hogs rallied strongly on Monday but then posted a bearish engulfing candle the next day only to see prices rally again to finish the week higher. I am willing to remain in this trade while prices are below the falling 40 SMA.
GC – Gold
Gold continued its attempts to surpass the 61.8% retracement this week to no avail but each failed attempt continues to be supported at the 40 SMA. The price action on Friday was negative and if there is any further negative action on Monday I will bail on this trade quickly.
ZL – Soybean Oil
Soybean Oil had a massive week surging higher on Monday and Wednesday. The attempted retraces on Thursday and Friday were well supported around the 34 level. Soybean Oil offered 4 potential entries and I’m disappointed to have missed all 4 of them. I will continue my attempts to get on board next week.
Below are my comments on other markets I see opportunities in.
SB – Sugar
Sugar had another attempt at surpassing the 61.8% retracement of the recent corrective range this week but was unsuccessful. Prices continue to hold at the 40 SMA.
CL – Crude Oil
Oil continued strongly upward this week surpassing the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. Further evidence is required before concluding that this level is broken due to the indecisive price action on Friday.
DX – US Dollar Index
The Dollar was sharply lower this week trading down to the 61.8% retracement level but prices held at this level.
NG – Natural Gas
Natural Gas prices were higher this week before negative action on Friday wiped out most of the week’s gains. Natural Gas is still holding above the 200 SMA though.
HG – Copper
Copper bounced off the 200 SMA on Monday but was unable to surpass the short term moving averages. The fact that Copper prices have been able to hold above the 200 SMA is supportive.
Trade: Short 5 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar
Entry Price: 99.08
Risk: 99.14 risking $750
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars were lower during the overnight session trading down through the 200 SMA but recovered to finish the day practically unchanged and post an indecisive candle with a lower shadow.
HE – Lean Hogs
Trade: Short 1 contract of October Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.6025
Risk: $0.6220 risking $0
Target: $0.46
Daily Comment: Hogs opened higher before reversing to finish the day lower and post a bearish candle.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,345.50
Risk: $1,334 risking $575
Target: Short term - $1,419, Long Term – $1,619
Daily Comment: Gold was lower today breaking below the 40 SMA but finished off the lows posting a candle with a lower shadow.
ZL – Soybean Oil
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3412
Risk: $0.3323 risking $535
Target: Short term - $0.4003, Long Term – $0.6606
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Soybean Oil surpassed rising 200 SMA after a long downtrend and has also surpassed the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.
Fundamental: strong Soybean demand is helping prices rise.
Daily Comment: Soybean Oil was lower during the overnight session but finished the day off the lows posting a candle with a lower shadow.
Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
CL – Crude Oil
Oil traded back down through the 61.8% retracement level today posting a bearish full bodied candle.
KC - Coffee
Coffee was sharply higher today posting a bullish full bodied candle and closing back above the 40 SMA. If prices can surpass the 61.8% retracement of the corrective range a good buying opportunity may arise.
SB – Sugar
Sugar rallied strongly today posting a bullish full bodied candle and closing above the 61.8% retracement level. Further evidence is required to conclude that this level has been broken.
Trade: Short 5 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar
Entry Price: 99.08
Risk: 99.14 risking $750
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars traded in a small range today finishing unchanged from yesterday and posting an indecisive candle.
HE – Lean Hogs
Trade: Short 1 contract of October Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.6025
Risk: $0.6220 risking $0
Target: $0.46
Daily Comment: Hogs traded both higher and lower today finishing the day slightly lower and posting an indecisive candle.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,345.50
Exit Price: $1,347
Trade Grade: 1/5
Trade Comment: There was never a trade where I entered that fits with my trading plan and I was lucky to be given an opportunity to exit the trade without losing any money.
Daily Comment: Gold traded in a small range today briefly moving up to the 40 SMA before finishing the day slightly lower and posting an indecisive candle.
ZL – Soybean Oil
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3412
Risk: $0.3323 risking $535
Target: Short term - $0.4003, Long Term – $0.6606
Daily Comment: Soybean Oil was lower during the overnight session again but held at the 34 level. Prices then reversed strongly going on to make new highs for the move but finished well off the highs posting an indecisive candle.
Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
CL – Crude Oil
Oil continued lower during the overnight session before rallying back up to the 61.8% retracement level. The rally paused at this level with Oil finishing off the day’s highs and posting an indecisive candle.
NG – Natural Gas
Natural Gas rallied strongly again today trading up towards the 61.8% retracement level of the recent corrective range. If prices can surpass this level a good buying opportunity may arise.
KC - Coffee
Coffee opened lower but reversed to finish the day higher and post another bullish candle.
SB – Sugar
Sugar initially traded lower retesting the 61.8% retracement level but bounced from this level to finish the day higher and post a bullish candle. An entry signal has now been triggered and I will look to buy on any retrace back towards the 61.8% retracement level as buying at current prices is outside my risk tolerance level.
Trade: Short 5 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar
Entry Price: 99.08
Risk: 99.14 risking $750
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars were higher today closing back above the 200 SMA and posting a bullish candle.
HE – Lean Hogs
Trade: Short 1 contract of October Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.6025
Risk: $0.6220 risking $0
Target: $0.46
Daily Comment: Hogs traded in a small range today finishing the day lower.
ZL – Soybean Oil
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3412
Risk: $0.3323 risking $535
Target: Short term - $0.4003, Long Term – $0.6606
Daily Comment: Soybean Oil was lower today holding the 61.8% retracement level but posting a bearish candle.
SB – Sugar
Trade: Long 1 contract of October Sugar
Entry Price: 0.2042
Risk: 0.1989 risking $683
Target: Short Term – 0.2277, Long Term 0.2640
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices penetrated the 61.8% retracement of the recent correction.
Fundamental: A deficit in supply is expected this year and new demand has hit the market.
Daily Comment: Sugar opened higher but failed to hold the ground above the 20.80 level reversing sharply to finish the day lower. Prices finished off the day’s lows back at the 61.8% retracement level but still posted a bearish candle. Based on the day’s price action the entry order appears to be the wrong move and I will re-evaluate whether to continue with this trade before tomorrow’s open.
