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I was too late in the Euro short party.
Struggling to watch many instruments at the same time.
2. the base case in POund is that it is still trading in a range. Now it is time to cycle from the high to the low of range. Support at 12830 (futures price).
The high of yesterday's correction 4644 has been taken out. Hence the scenario has been shifted to the Gartley pattern.
The pattern entry is at 4952, which is the 78.6 fib of the impulse down leg.
So far the moves look like correction to me.
4964 is the invalidation point of this Gartley pattern. A safe entry is to draw a trend line to today's corrective structure and enter a short when this trend line breaks.
An alternative way of looking at the the reversal in European equity this morning is to see it as a big W bottom pattern.
Since it has traded through the neckline, a W pattern has been confirmed technically. This
This implies 5010, 5040 and 5100 as pattern fulfillment points.
Agreed, but FESX has to get past this 3176 with some measure of conviction. Really enjoy your journal, good sir, particularly now that I've been living in New Zealand for the past three months and trading the DAX. One crazy instrument.
The ES has broken the neckline of a small head and shoulder's pattern out of the trapped weak holiday short selling actions.
The first target of this pattern at 2663.5 has been achieved to the tick this morning. We are anticipating for the second leg of the up move to pop price up to 2681.5.
Mlm,
Thanks for your comment.
Glad to hear that your like my journal.
You are right, DAX is very wild.
It has incredibly many fake outs and stop runs day in and day out.
Regards
Bin
Yes, big fan of the journal. I am just scalping FDAX based on FESX behavior at known areas of support/resistance. That often means being down a quick hundred or two before the DAX gets in line with FESX. D-high, D-low, vwap, eth vwap, etc. work brilliantly. Three contracts and three or four trades and the day is nearly made before I go to sleep.
I very much appreciate your comprehensive view of the contextual situation, and I use that info when the US session begins. As for the DAX, though, I don't think I could hold a position there without scaring myself to death, so for now, I take 5-15 ticks with a couple of cars and get out before it makes the inevitable reversal.
1. ES has stalled at 2664, last week's VPOC level.
My bias in ES is short term bullish, because many weak bears were forcing a break down during the two holiday sessions. Hence a short squeeze rally is very likely to happen before a real break down in ES. I see two possibilities for such short squeeze rally to play out.
2. Russell is showing some bullish leadership for now that it has broken last week's value high and ready to challenge the band of prior support now resistance at 1510. I am going to watch closely in Russell to see how it reacts to weekly value area of two weeks ago for a clue of bullish continuation of break down.
