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A couple of hours after positive news was released for NZD, someone decided to buy 500 contracts as you can see in the circled candle below.
What is their rationale for buying so much so late after positive news? Especially since its the end of the final wave of an elliot cycle and rsi is massively overbought on the 4 hour
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
You circled 500 at .6750, there was also another 500 earlier at .6722, and 400 at 6700. Was there 500 on the offer waiting to filled short or was an iceberg absorbing at approximately 25 tick intervals from 6700 to 6750? Did the aggressive buyers know they were pushing up in to liquidity advertising itself on the offer or did they run in to icebergs happy to keep selling the higher price went?
It could be speculators buying or selling, or it could be a business hedging risk. Either way, or any other reason, you will never know. One thing you can be pretty sure about is that it is very unlikely that they are checking the RSI or counting Elliot waves before deciding whether they can put their trade on or not.
"You do not win as a trader, you just get to play again the next day. If that game doesn’t appeal to you then you should not trade" - Gary Norden
the way i treat this and it has taken quite some time to just accept that you can never know why. Even if you see some heavy lifting, that is unusual, you still cannot treat that as directional intent. It could very well drop 15 to 20 points in the next minute even though a bar or two ago somebody lifted 500 on the offer.
For various reasons matthew28 listed, it could be hedging or a longer term positioning with pockets to withhold much more drawdown than you or I could. Whats to say it was one person lifting the total offer. It could be 1 seller and 500 single buyers. or any of the mix and combinations.
Nothing to do but just note the odd print (and depending on your data feed, that print could be incorrect). Just compare the same chart using datafeed from CQG, Gain, IB, IQ feed and you would see some variation in the amount printed. 500, 473, 510, 557, etc so its hard to draw meaning or valuable information that could hint future direction or to even associate the buying to a news event.
