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Feeling motivated to do a little chart analysis right now. Here are the LVNs in the daily chart (these prices might change by tomorrow morning): 3150.50, 3142, 3138-9, 3134, 3130.50, 3125.75.
As for LVN 3150.50, it's in my best interest not to short there given an opportunity to do so (my stats are telling me to stop shorting this market).
In the 60 minute chart, price has bounced off of daily LVN 3142 many, many times (around 9-10 times- didn't bother getting the exact number), thus, the level has become dangerous to trade from.
The next LVN "region" down are prices 3138 through to 3139, which is only 2-3 points away from the dangerous price 3142. It has occurred to me that there may be a lot of stop losses in this area, in which case a stop run could bring price down to the next daily LVN 3134. It turns out that the price 3134.50 was the price point of control on the 26th of November, and is right above the weekly value area low 3132.50. Price 3132.50 was also 11/19's HOD, and is conveniently sandwiched between LVN 3134 and 3130.50.
Buy area 3129 - 3134.50 = Range of 5.5 points = 22 possible long entry prices. Maybe a buy at 3132.50 with 4 points of risk? P/T could be 3140.50, just underneath obvious level 3142. Would be a ~2R trade. Would have to be cautious for an exit at 3138's and 9's given that region is a price of interest, in which case I could close for ~1.5R.. Anyways, I'll be lucky if all of this actually plays out tomorrow. More importantly, I must remain receptive and open to other possibilities.
I pay $7 a month out of my trading account balance for market data of the ES, MES, NQ, MNQ, 6E, M6E, RTY, and M2K. I'm curious about trading all of these other products, probably because I have almost exclusively traded the MES so far.. Really, I've only taken a handful of SIM and live trades in the MNQ, and I'm definitely intrigued by its volatility now, but was scared away from it back in March.
Just a little update, I'm going to get familiar with these markets in the mean time.
Nice to see you focussing on Market Profile and the LVN / HVN areas.
I used to spend time in a room with a fellow who had taken a course offered by J. Peter Steidlmayer (the inventor of the Market Profile) - his takeaway from the course regarding the LVN's and HVN's was simply this:
An LVN "may cause the price movement to pause"
An HVN "might act as an attractor (to price movement)"
He never referred to either as an area to get short or long just because price was trading there.
Trade well,
John B.
R.I.P. John Bottomley (Botts), 1956-2022.
Please visit this thread for more information.
I know what mine is. I trade at low volume nodes if the short-term context suggests to me that it's worth the risk. Being receptive to what the market is doing is a big part of that process, but having my own outline (as above) puts things into context.
I refer to prices that are places of opportunity. That's it.
I placed a limit buy order at 3132.50 (first time ever using a limit order), which was a level I figured to be important in yesterdays analysis. At the open, price was obviously initiative to the downside, which had me concerned.. I thought about canceling the limit order as the market was approaching my price, but on the other hand I had thought that, technically, I had a great trade on my hands, and I didn't want to risk missing this move that I was ready to take advantage of. There was still a good possibility that buyers would enter around my entry price, if not lower at LVN 3130.50, which was 1.75 points above my stop loss. My stop was insulated well, my entry price was conflated with 2 LVNs and was a weekly VAL, and I was trading in the direction of the daily trend. So I met myself halfway, and determined I'd exit around 3130.50 if it was taken out by a tic or two. That way, I'd at least lose less points in the event that I was wrong, and possibly capture the move up if price decided to reverse at a lower price than my entry price.
Price reached 3132.50 10 minutes after the open and I was filled, and I watched as price hectically traded between 3131.50 and 3136. This gave me more confidence in the trade, but I was still concerned about a continuation to the downside because of the weakness at the open. I had thoughts while I was in the green to take profits because of the short-term context, but I resisted with the intention of closing at 3038, thinking this could still very well go my way. I can't settle for less than 1R anyway, I thought. Sure enough, we broke 3131.50, and we passed 3030.50. I practically knew I was wrong when 3131 broke. My hope to win kept me in the trade despite my plan to manually exit if 30.50 broke. The MES hit 3030, and that's when I was stopped out abruptly by a huge bear move for a 5.25 point loss with 5 ticks of slippage. Admittedly, I didn't take this loss well at the time, yet my stop getting hit was certainly a good signal that we were in a bear trend. I planned on shorting the pull-back to LVN 3125.75, but couldn't bring myself to execute.
Defeated.
It's not that I can't read price action. It's that I've created a habit of holding bad trades with the hope that they will work out in the end. It's easier for me to hold a trade and get stopped out than for me to make a decision that could possibly be wrong; I find leaving money on the table hard to deal with. It's also hard for me to admit that I'm wrong with something I've put effort into. It is hope and a lack of responsibility that is hurting me.
I will resolve these issues.. I'll be sure to deal with my useless hope appropriately in tomorrows trading session.
Thank you for that. You know, I get over this stuff pretty quickly.. I just have to enact what I've learned from my mistakes. As always, easier said than done: I'm going to practice manual exits in SIM / develop the skill of consistently acting on what I think is the best course of action (based on logic.. Haha). I imagine this practice will eventually translate into my live trading, but I don't want to get ahead of myself.
For that screenshot, I switched over to the 1000 tick chart from my hourly chart that usually displays the weekly value area:
I actually had most of those LVNs plotted out on that chart, I just removed them for the pictures sake. However, I didn't plot the HVNs.
To respond to your latest question, I wasn't aware of any upcoming news prior to the open session. I would've cancelled that limit order if I was aware.. It was the news right at 10AM EST that stopped me out, actually. Hmm, maybe I should watch the first 5 minutes or so of FT's Trader Bite to avoid another situation like this. We've been here before; you mentioning a catalyst that I was unaware of which stopped me out, and me saying I need a news source. I think I need to pay attention to the news..
Not trying to beat up on you here Zach, just wanted to remind you to check the Economic News schedule for the day as part of your "Pretrading work up" in the morning.
R.I.P. John Bottomley (Botts), 1956-2022.
Please visit this thread for more information.
As always, easier said than done: I'm going to practice manual exits in SIM / develop the skill of consistently acting on what I think is the best course of action (based on logic.. Haha). I imagine this practice will eventually translate into my live trading, but I don't want to get ahead of myself. 
