kevinkdog 

Do you want some advice? I hate chiming in without asking first, since most people posting in journals really don't want advice.

Hey Kevin!

I want advice. Feel free to comment anytime and thank you in advance.

michaelroth 

Hey Kevin! I want advice. Feel free to comment anytime and thank you in advance.

I've watched your thread for a while, and you've done some good things IMO, but also some common "bad" things. Most people do or have done the same things, so do not feel bad about it. It is all part of the learning curve.

A couple of observations...

1) You changed "strategies" so many times I have lost count. Most aren't even strategies, but are ideas or concepts you've found. That is fine - everyone needs to explore - but realize 99% of these ideas won't stand up to proper testing. Which leads me to point 2...

2) You are on the right track that you should be backtesting your strategy before going live. I'll avoid discussing what a proper backtest should look like, because it may be different for your style of trading. BUT, I will say that however you backtest, be CONSISTENT and OBJECTIVE. Test every idea/strategy exactly the same. That way you are comparing apples to apples. Hard to know which of the approaches you've looked at is best if you test each one a bit differently.

Hope this helps!

So many pretty lines- Back testing 10.15.2021. One week complete.



So that's the whole week. Phew! So lets look at the numbers- a 17:4 win loss ratio with a $5174 profit. Whew! The question now is, what will it do next week? What did it do the week before? I like what I see, but I want validation. Its a tricky and taxing thing to do, looking at prior performance, and truth be told I don't be having all the time in world- I'm a busy man. So why go through all the trouble?

I want a "trigger pull".

I'm looking for that something that "makes" get into that trade, or a something that gives me the confidence to get into a trade. This to me is strategy. So now I have got a little bit of data, data I've personally collected and verified. Data showing me a possibility. Yes, I like what I see so far with those brutally optimistic stats. I like the usability of the strategy- match 3 and go. I can defiantly see myself being able to employ this live against the market.

If this work out, it will be almost "mindless"- just wait for the match 3 set up, pull the trigger. The next step is to forward test it. If that works, see if I can use it against the combines.

kevinkdog 

I've watched your thread for a while, and you've done some good things IMO, but also some common "bad" things. Most people do or have done the same things, so do not feel bad about it. It is all part of the learning curve. A couple of observations... 1) You changed "strategies" so many times I have lost count. Most aren't even strategies, but are ideas or concepts you've found. That is fine - everyone needs to explore - but realize 99% of these ideas won't stand up to proper testing. Which leads me to point 2... 2) You are on the right track that you should be backtesting your strategy before going live. I'll avoid discussing what a proper backtest should look like, because it may be different for your style of trading. BUT, I will say that however you backtest, be CONSISTENT and OBJECTIVE. Test every idea/strategy exactly the same. That way you are comparing apples to apples. Hard to know which of the approaches you've looked at is best if you test each one a bit differently. Hope this helps!

Thanks Kevin,

This is going to sound a little little like B.S., but the mistakes that I make are somewhat intentional. Right now I'm just feeling out the market. I'm looking not just to trade and profit, but to trade and profit well. By my estimation this can only be done if I can somehow get past the fear and doubt that seem to plague so many potential traders. So that's what I'm working on. This is why I have changed strategies so often, I'm looking for something I really like using. Something that I really understand. That's where the back testing is coming in. I'm using it a cudgel, using it to smash these strat's into bits so I can better understand them. I'm looking for the strategy that can stand the abuse.

michaelroth 

Thanks Kevin, This is going to sound a little little like B.S., but the mistakes that I make are somewhat intentional. Right now I'm just feeling out the market. I'm looking not just to trade and profit, but to trade and profit well. By my estimation this can only be done if I can somehow get past the fear and doubt that seem to plague so many potential traders. So that's what I'm working on. This is why I have changed strategies so often, I'm looking for something I really like using. Something that I really understand. That's where the back testing is coming in. I'm using it a cudgel, using it to smash these strat's into bits so I can better understand them. I'm looking for the strategy that can stand the abuse.

Ok good luck, I hope your approach works for you.

michaelroth 

The volume profile stuff is pretty straight forward. This week is in part seeing if there's anything to it. I can see the logic behind it- big money means big volume, big volumes are the POC. but does it work? I'm hoping to find out.

What would constitute "working"?

josh 

What would constitute "working"?

For me I would like to see price respect naked POC's a majority of the time, and I'm just not seeing it. It could be that I'm doing it wrong.

michaelroth 

For me I would like to see price respect naked POC's a majority of the time, and I'm just not seeing it. It could be that I'm doing it wrong.

Naked POCs ... on what time frame? That is, profiling over what range of time, or activity? This is only one variable. There are many variables which influence the market. Also, you've been at this for, I guess, a week now, and that's a very, very short period of time. This is not a paint-by-numbers way to trade, and there is a lot of room for interpretation. There's context and nuance. It's not for people who prefer a quantitative approach.

Last week I took an ES trade, which I posted about in the spoos thread, and based the idea partly on the profile. But there were a few other variables. And, the question is, what profile? Did I look for a random day's naked VPOC as a target? When does a POC matter? When does value area matter? When does none of it matter? These are things which take experience to sort out, and that takes time.

The market is always changing. One of your biggest advantages you can have is realizing that you always need to be adapting to it, figuring out what's currently working.

Hell week.

It's called hell week because it's 4-12 hour day shifts with ALL the bosses. I call it hell week because its super hard to trade. Here's how it turned out-



I'm currently testing the 5 minute scalping strategy. Today it would have made for 2 winning trades on the ES and 1 win, 1 loss on the NQ. Only one of these trades would have been in the New York cash session.

Overnight on the ES

There are a couple of beautiful set up's here. Its too bad we can't be awake to take them all.