Narcissus 

Thanks. Yes, that's the big question. I am also watching option flow, especially Calls farther out. Stock buybacks could provide a nice boost. With gamma turning positive, it does look like everything is lined up for the next leg UP. However, I'm unsure whether this is enough to counter the QT environment right now. In your spoo thread, you quoted "The perception of a slowing down in the velocity (or a pause) in rate hikes". Is it based on bond movements, inversion strength or something else?

It's all about anticipations, which is another word for "wishful thinking"

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-spike-after-wsj-fed-whisperer-hints-pausepivot

Remember that options flows are only one factor affecting price. You want to take a multi-variate approach to the market. In reference to what I posted above Goldman just came out asking, "Market participants are left wondering after the Nick T tweet, the JPY intervention and also Mary Daly’s comments around the need “consider global factors” if there is some ‘global coordination’ amongst central banks to add some lubricant to the global markets engine which showed signs of stress Friday AM EST." If this message gains traction, look out!

Monday trading update.

Got caught up in the initial RTH opening volatility.

Though I'm short term bullish, my expectation for monday was a range between 3800 and 3700.

This is based on the observation that during positive gamma opex expiration in bull markets, price dropped on opex day, then rose the following day. My thesis was the reverse was more likely to happen during this negative gamma expiration. i.e Higher on Opex Friday and then lower on Monday.

My execution let me down though. Instead of waiting for 3800, I chased the price and shorted 70's. Then reversed to long and then to short again. Very unusual for me to change my direction intra-day without clear change in trend. Itchy fingers syndrome relapse.

I'm ok in getting the direction wrong but no excuse for execution error.

Tuesday update

Quiet day yesterday. Just 1 short @ 3850. Ideally should have been flat by the EOD. My stats however indicated that gap down opening was more likely today. (Parallel testing going on - Intra day close vs Overnight hold). Hence decided to keep it and so far it seems to be working.

My bias is bullish for today. Hence I will close my short @ open or around 3828 (if lucky) and will reverse it to long. Target is 3900 today.

I'm still concerned about quick reversal of this market to retest support @ 3775 and even 3700. But I HAVE to take my long signal today (once EMA crossover gives me a signal to enter).

Bought @ 45 and scaled in at 55.

Price seems to be stalling below Y-H and quite tempting to scale out here.

However, no sell signal yet. Hence will sit tight and see whether there is enough fuel to test 3900.

Edit - Just scale out @ 74 i.e Y-H. Though there is still no sell signal, I see buyers having to work hard to go up. Hence this could crumble quick. Saying that, I'm still 1/2 long and willing to pick up some @ vwap with stop and reverse @ RTH low.

Narcissus 

Bought @ 45 and scaled in at 55. Price seems to be stalling below Y-H and quite tempting to scale out here. However, no sell signal yet. Hence will sit tight and see whether there is enough fuel to test 3900. Edit - Just scale out @ 74 i.e Y-H. Though there is still no sell signal, I see buyers having to work hard to go up. Hence this could crumble quick. Saying that, I'm still 1/2 long and willing to pick up some @ vwap with stop and reverse @ RTH low.

Way to trade!

Still holding long. Seeing first decent PB after almost touching 3900.

Though it's tempting to be flat, the ATR is still only 60% of recent average. Does it mean it has more room to the upside? I was expecting a rip before if any reversal, not a wimp below 3900. Especially after so much volume and vpoc at 3890.

Watching buyers response now after the first fight by sellers.

Edit - Flat at 3890.

Possibly still some more room above but cannot babysit my position for the next hour. Will try and pick up some more long at vwap later.

Quite a deep PB.

vwap not holding sellers yet.

Will consider long above 40 AFTER signal from EMA crossover. If we make new LOD, then long bias is over.

Long 53. Though it looks like a risky long, I am willing to bet 5 points for a potential 20 pts.

Given the severity of the selling, it looks like 3900 will be defended well today and new HOD is unlikely. However, my bet is on another feeble attempt by longs upto 75.

If we make new LOD below 49, I'm definitely out of my long but unsure whether to join the shorts or call it a day.

Stopped out of my bottom fishing long @ 53 for 5 pts loss.

Then short from 45. Closed @ BE.

Both of my above trades saw MFE of 10 points but I was aiming for a bigger move. Perhaps I was reading too much into the high relative volume. No regrets though as my earlier long execution paid me to take these chances.

Towards the close, I decided to short @ 48 and hold overnight.

Though my preference is to go flat @ RTH close, this particular set up of ETH lower close and RTH higher close has a bearish follow up from my stats analysis. Let's see whether it works or not tomorrow.