Long again @ 4516.

Lucky to have a deeper pullback than I expected and more importantly, I was patient enough to get it at a discount.

I am not expecting a new HOD. May be there will be one but I'm happy with a lower high target @ 4540.

Interesting day for me.

Long from 4510 to 4540 with a quick and easy +30 points.

Long again from 4516 and got out @ 4486 for -30 points.

Essentially I gave up the gain due to lack of clear exit plan. My long signal worked like charm initially but I guess it made me over-confident and the trap was set! My second trade was also at a very good location but when we closed the gap, that should have been my warning sign that 'something' has changed and I should have been out. Perhaps for 10 points loss.

One of the drawbacks of public journaling, for me, is that it's very seducing to post my gain in the forum and I often noticed out-sized loss soon after that. hmmm...

I executed my bullish bias reasonably well today.

The theme was gap closure after we opened 20 points down.

I waited patiently during the RTH opening minutes to make sure buyers are interested in this lower prices.

Long @ 64 and 62.

Scaled out @ 78 & 84.

Though I executed my thesis, I missed another 6 to 8 points to the upside. Still learning to read order flow to make sure I get the most out of my trades.

Then I did something I generally avoid doing. Counter-trade short from 88 to 80 for +8 points (theme was vwap test) and then reversed again to long with the expectation of new HOD later in the day.

Currently pullback is much deeper but my bullish bias persists and hence I added @ 72. Will likely leave till the end of the day or bail out if new LOD.

August 15 2023.

Another good execution day. Bearish bias according to past stats.

Decided to trade SPY instead of MES as I found it easier to hold it for longer i.e till the end of the day

Short @ Open. Once I saw confirmation of sellers showing up and after previous day low was tested, I scaled in. It turned out to be a good location.

Scaled out 1/2 for a profit. Soon regretted it and added back but shaken out for a scratch.

However, I decided to let the other 1/2 size till the end of the day and got rewarded nicely.

Bearish bias but the signal is not robust today.

However, the odds to test Y-L is pretty strong and hence I decided to trade the short side.

Short 54.50 and then scaled in @ 60. Currently taking some heat with price upto 65 but not that bad.

Only now I realised that it's Fed minutes today. I generally go flat into the data release but decided to keep my position today with 1st target @ 42.

Overall, low confidence trade but odds favor test of Y-L. Let's see.

As expected, Y-L was tested. I moved my target from 42 to 49 and also decided to go flat.

+16 points.

My bearish bias persists but hoping to get a better entry point above 4460 during FED whipsaw.

Recap.

My MES trade yielded +16 points. Though my limit short @ 4458 was not filled post FED minutes, I didn't chase the price as my SPY short from RTH open to close was in place.

I mentioned before in my journal about the benefits of 'End of Day' Orders. You get the best possible exit during a more volatile trading environment.

August 17 prep.

My bias is bullish today.

I will be long from RTH open with SPY and let that stay till the end of the day. The only downside of this trade is that there is more than 50% chance of lower low today and hence I may have to sit through some unpleasant MFE. I could consider 1/2 size @ RTH open and 1/2 below Y-L.

With MES, I have the choice to be more discretionary and nimble. I will buy below Y-L and aim for a 30 pts ATR today. I do NOT think Y-H high will be tested today and hence my target will be in the 50 area.

Stats are overwhelmingly bearish today.

Will be short from open.

The risk of gap closure is still lurking at reasonable odds of 35%. I will be fading any bounce and will likely hold this trade till the EOD. However, will NOT carry it over the weekend.

Shorting worked ok but somewhat surprised with the sharp bounce of 20 pts in the first 30 minutes.

Short 63 and added @ 71.

Scaled out @ 60 and flat @ 57. Total +16 points

My bearish bias is weakened for now and If we make new HOD above 73, then my thesis is wrong.

I don't think I will be long in that scenario as gap closure is still a low odds scenario and the reward potential is low. If we make new LOD @ 51, then I will be tempted again to short the bounces..