We all have our inner demons to fight when it comes to trading. It's expressed as habits and often they hide in plain sight for a very long time.

Mine has been 'fading without confirmation'. The antidote I found was EMA crossover system. However, from time to time, I try to outsmart myself and end up hurting. Not anymore. Though I have come a long way with consistent profitability, the size is still small and my progress is clearly impaired by this destructive habit.

Why wait till January 1st for a resolution?

Wrong footed but not surprised.

I was expecting a 3% move based on 40+ VIX implied volatility expiring today but 'hoping' it will be to the downside

However, damage was minimised by my planned strategy to fade 4130 (based on SPX Option positions) and grabbed 50 points by scaling out @ 4080.

Still in red as my original short from 4030 is in place but not complaining as it's a swing position. Tomorrow is going to be another 3% day according to VIX implied volatility and if I'm lucky, we could test the downside next

My most frequent sin of 'fading without confirmation' was committed pre-open but I redeemed myself by disciplined scale in and scale out. It's hard to believe that I am in green after seeing 150 pts MAE!

My second common sin is tempting me now but I have been successfully resisting it, so far. That's 'changing the timeframe'. I will explain. I usually enter a trade with 'day-trading' timeframe but after seeing big moves, usually adverse, I do either of 2 things.

1) I hold on to it longer than planned. i.e turning day trade into a swing trade and hence turn it into a big loser.
2) Close it sooner than planned i.e planned swing trade becomes day trade to take small profit.

I was tempted to do the later sin after seeing my green position but vowed to keep my position atleast until tomorrow close to capitalise on FED move. If we retest today's high, perhaps I can lick my wounds or I can win a trophy tomorrow if we test 3900.

Oddball days

Consistency is rare in this business and that's why I love trading after these oddball days. You don't often see a Profit factor of 3.15!

We had a higher close for yesterday compared to Monday but intraday it finished lower. This pattern has a consistent bullish follow in this market environment. But there is a catch. Based on 43 occurences, (not a lot, I agree) we are lot more likely to have Gap DOWN opening tomorrow.

That means, my expectation is for a reaction down move to 3900/50 after FED and then rip up after RTH open to 4000/50. The opposite of what happened today. The way I'm going to play this is to cover my exisiting short @ RTH open and reverse to Long.

Sometimes, I do wonder why bother playing this data point volatility with limited edge. However, with just 1 micro and no risk of serious harm, it can be a fun ride.

Getting ready for the next chapter in 2023.

My trading methodology has evolved a lot over the years and I'm currently at a stage where I'm no longer making silly mistakes and handling my emotions better. Win rate averages around 60% and winners are generally bigger than losers. I also experimented various instruments and entry/exit methodologies. I feel like I have all the ingredients I needed to move on to my next chapter where I have to increase the size.

However, watching the screen for 6+ hours during market hours is NOT part of my future plan. I don't mind spending that much time PRE-market research though. The most comfortable method so far has been SPY trading with RTH open entry and EOD close. It facilitates discipline and structure with very little emotional swings. It's surprisingly effective too in terms of P&L.

I'm aware that this is radically different from majority of traders in this forum who trade 1 or 2 timeframes lower than me. Hence I may post less next year but will continue to share my process and results.

I will probably not trade after this friday OPEX. Wishing you all happy holidays and see you in 2023.

I wish I have more days like this. 40+ pts in 35 minutes.




Post FOMC bearish bias executed flawlessly. Almost. Should have tried harder to scale in.

Later in the day, tried twice to bottom fish for longs @ 38 and 21 but got out for breakeven. Though I was well over 10+ pts on both the occasions, I was gunning for vwap @ 60 and gave up the paper profits. However, no regrets. Infact, very happy that I was disciplined to get out of trades against the trend.

Truer words were never spoken




Bye Bye 2022

Another good start today.

25 points gain for my short bias. This time, I excercised more patience after RTH open and shorted above 3900 and covered just above ONL.

Still bearish bias but option volume favors 3920 test and hence not too aggressive with my shorts. If ONL is tested, then I will consider shorting again.

2022 Year end performance summary

This is the second year of profit for me.

5000 USD gain is not much but that was intentional as my risk appetite was very low. I still consider myself as a market student who is not graduated yet and hence kept my size very low. That will change in 2023 as I ramp up.

I learnt a few things about my style. I know that intuitively but it's always good to see proof.

This is my P&L when close my positions INTRADAY.



This is what happens if I hold MULTIDAY (overnight or try to play swing trade).



Overall stats show that my win ratio is 50% but my winners are much bigger than my losers.
Profit factor is 1.7 but I'm hoping to push it to 2.0 in 2023.

Random reflections.

2022 gave me the confidence that trading can be my full time job and provide my main income. I observed massive shifts in my probabilistic thinking with resultant emotional blunting. Became less attached to individual outcomes and finally understood, I mean Understood, the word 'Process oriented'. Second year running positive P&L after 6 to 8 years of part-time mumbo jumbo trading. BTW I do NOT recommend doing this to any aspiring trader for the first 3 to 5 years.

At the risk of being seen as gloating, I want to make this clear to everyone who may be tempted to trade full-time. I have my basics covered to take care of my family and kids for several years. Thanks to Fed, I can cover my rental expense from my interest income now! More importantly, even if I fail in this trading venture, I'm fortunate that I can still easily find a job with 6 figure income.

Now, back to my ramblings.

During my year end trade analysis in Tradervue, It's clear that I perform really well when I close my positions by the 'End of the Day'. Discipline is scarce and precious in this profession and I will do 'anything' to improve that muscle. Though I can continue to trade MES and work harder, it's much simpler with SPY ETF. RTH open entry from my phone and once I'm in, then 'End of Day' or Market on Close 'MOC' order. Job done. If I like intra-day price action and want to play more, I can scale in and out but my initial entry and exit are set in stone.

This past week was a bit of warm up with SPY and it went really well. Just 50 contracts to get me going. This will go up to 100 for 1st week of January and then my max size is 300 which I aim to hit by the end of the month. My goal is to increase my (per trade) risk capital to 1k in 2023 so that I can reap bigger rewards for my hardwork in formulating trade thesis. It's time to move from a conservative trader to an aggressive one but yet remain humble.

Last week SPY results


2022 Intraday trading summary