Covered my long @ 72. Original entry 65. Not a great trade as I anticipated 4k target after going through big MAE. However, Ms. Market decided to pay me only this much.

Now short 70. I must admit that taking profit and reversing position was not easy

There is still the risk of 4k test (and hence 30 pts loss) for my short and my profit potential is also limited to around 30. Though this is a 1:1 RR trade, it's a high probability trade according to past stats and hence taking a shot.

Edit - Flat now. Took 5 pts loss. I didn't like the fact that HOD is being tested with increase in volume. Will consider short only for today. That too only after vwap test.

4k reached without me onboard.

Got shaken out. That's OK. I followed my signals.

Today is likely to be a choppy day and will sit out till Fed minutes

Forum seems very quiet these days which reduces my motivation to post. However, I will try to keep it up.

I'm swing trading temporarily, due to my housing project, and back to SPY instead of ES. Main reasons are that it reduces my temptation to do Out of Hours trading and I prefer 'End of Market' Orders (which paid me quite nicely today).

I initiated long @ 3985 on Monday and the expectation was a test of 4070 area. i.e 200MA. Scaled in to my loser @ 3970. However, I saw a big MAE on Tuesday and almost ready to throw the towel in yesterday. Instead, I decided to reduce my risk and covered 1/2 @ 3955 for a loss and left the rest @ FED's mercy for EOD close.

After waking up, I was very surprised with the intensity of the move @ almost 300% ATR. Getting out of your winner at the high tick of the day is really sweet. That's what I love about the EOD Market on close orders. I just take myself out of the picture after getting the direction right (and stops in place). Though it's only half size, I don't have any regrets as it's a planned risk optimisation strategy.

Prep for the day after 200 DMA tested.

Stats indicate that we are more likely to have a bearish day after a set up like this.

We had close to 70 events like this in the last 20 years and the profit factor is a respectable 1.4. However, the context this time is QT, unlike the QE in the last 15 years.

I am still leaning towards shorts tomorrow because the USD and VIX are less enthusiastic about this vertical Index move i.e They are not making swing lows whilst ES is making swing high.

Not chasing the market yet. Limit short @ 4100.

P.S. I take it back what I said about me not trading Out of hours. I'm an addict and NOT ready to quit yet

Yes this site is quiet a lot now. Same stuff different day

Pretty good sized drawdown. Its hard not too with this volatility

My short bias for the day working well, so far.

Initiated my first short @ 4100 before Open and then scaled in 4095 after open.

Scaled out 1/2 position @ 4070, below ONL .

Goal is 4040 for today.

Premature profit taking, possibly. However, I decided to bank as another Trend day and high ATR day seems less likely (back to back after Trend Up day). However, Rel vol is pretty good and hence anything is possible).

Edit - Went flat @ 4058. Overall good trade with 65 pts gain.

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Next trade

Tempted again to short the bounce @ 4075. Though I saw MAE upto vwap 84, I am not giving up on this trade. It's back to break even as I'm typing and will try to hold on to it till 4040. High Rel volume persists, which was unexpected by me and interesting.

Seasonality stats.

I look at 6 factors in my statistical analysis. Seasonality is one of them and often the LEAST useful.

However, if it's the 1st or last trading day of month/quarter, I pay attention. (Opex expiry is another significant one)

When I looked at 1st trading day of Decemeber since 2002, it's quite bearish.




Interestingly, the last trading day of November was quite bullish. hmm. Interesting.

My Exit execution style.

I like OCA One Cancel Another order in Interactive Brokers platform. It's probably not very sophistacted to tech savy day-traders out there but for me it serves my purpose and some new traders may find it useful. Hence sharing it here.

Context - I'm short from 4074 today. Price has been chopping between 65 and 85. My expectation is 40 test but it's midnight in Asia and I want to go to bed. My bearish bias persists and I don't want to flatten my position. I had a profitable day and willing to give some of it back to test my thesis.

Here is what I'm doing.

I create 3 OCA orders (and name it 123). First is my stop (in today's case it a modified stop limit). Next is my profit target. If neither trade is activated, then I close my position 1 minute before RTH close.

Best part of my trading day is SEEING my actual entries/exits after the end of the day. (When I get the direction correct)

NFP shocker.

We are in the perverse situation again where good news is bad and bad news is good.

Short 4042. Looking to scale in if 4000 is tested today.

My homework didn't show any edge from historical data. Premise for this trade is purely price action and bigger picture analysis.

We had a Surprise boost from Fed 2 days ago with no follow up. Now we are seeing surprise shock from NFP. I expect price to atleast test 3980. If Relative volume keeps up, we may even have the energy to test 3950 where it all started.

If we go back all the way upto 4075, then my trade idea is wrong.