I am currently oscillating between two strategies in the ES.

Strategy 1:
Stop 4 ticks, exit using a manual market order once 4 tick loss is reached
Profits held until 10 handle gain or I want to reverse positions which ever comes first

Strategy 2:
Stop 4 ticks, exit same as strategy 1
Profit 2 ticks using limit order

This morning I am test driving the strategy 1. Strategy 1 is likely the best because the larger winning trades will likely better offset the many 4 tick losses. I currently do not have enough sim trading experience with either strategy to feel comfortable going live so the paper trading will continue. I write down all of my sim trades in a notebook. I calculate my profit and loss at the end of each day and factor in the $4.68/rt fees that I pay with my broker. Although strategy 1 is likely the better option, strategy 2 has resulted in a high percentage of winning days which I do not know why. Both strategies I am using the same method for direction and entry timing which is to use the orderbook to determine short term tops and bottoms. I really do not use charts at all and only look at a daily chart for context of where price is in relation to daily high and low.

Also I am kicking around the idea of trying out in a combine for a prop firm. This would limit my expenses to the monthly fee they charge and there are some good deals at the moment at various firms.

Thanks for reading!

Blackgrey45

I got my brokerage statement for June. Here is how my account finished the month. I only traded 6 days.

June 1: -$222.24 on 1 MCL trade
June 7: -$17.18 on 1 ES trade
June 12: +$0.56 on 1 MES trade
June 13: +$12.37 on 2 MES trades
June 14: +$62.38 on 6 MES trades and 2 MCL trades
June 15: -$316.34 on 2 MES and 4 MCL trades

Total loss including fees -$480.45

My thinking is scattered and erratic. I am putting on hold the strategies I spoke about in the previous posts. I am going back to taking quick profits and holding losses until the pain becomes to great at which point I will exit. Taking a loss is so difficult for me and I hate to be wrong. I understand that this is fatal for my account and this is why I am continuing to paper trade. Will I go back to taking losses? I do not know because I really do not like taking losses. When I do start trading live taking losses is necessary because the worst case scenario, like being down 40 handles in the ES, is a very real possibility. I think once I do trade live I will make the right decisions. This is also why I think paper trading is almost pointless, there is no consequences and the emotions are not there. Trading decisions while paper trading versus live trading are not the same for me and its hard to marry the two processes. Also, I will probably stop trading for the day after taking a large loss going forward which feels like a good rule.

-Blackgrey45

blackgrey45 

My thinking is scattered and erratic. I am putting on hold the strategies I spoke about in the previous posts. I am going back to taking quick profits and holding losses until the pain becomes to great at which point I will exit. Taking a loss is so difficult for me and I hate to be wrong. I understand that this is fatal for my account and this is why I am continuing to paper trade. Will I go back to taking losses? I do not know because I really do not like taking losses. When I do start trading live taking losses is necessary because the worst case scenario, like being down 40 handles in the ES, is a very real possibility. I think once I do trade live I will make the right decisions. This is also why I think paper trading is almost pointless, there is no consequences and the emotions are not there. Trading decisions while paper trading versus live trading are not the same for me and its hard to marry the two processes. -Blackgrey45

This has probably been mentioned before but stop looking at the money.
Rate your trade as a success if you followed your plan. (I assume you have a plan)
Don't measure your success in dollars.
See if you can't follow your plan 100% of the time.
That way you'll know if you have an edge.

deaddog 

This has probably been mentioned before but stop looking at the money. Rate your trade as a success if you followed your plan. (I assume you have a plan) Don't measure your success in dollars. See if you can't follow your plan 100% of the time. That way you'll know if you have an edge.

Yes my plan is:

Buy daily lows and sell daily highs
Take profits quickly
Hold losses until the pain is too great

blackgrey45 

Yes my plan is: Buy daily lows and sell daily highs Take profits quickly Hold losses until the pain is too great

Sounds like an easy plan to follow.
Not so sure it will make any money.
Good luck!!

deaddog 

Sounds like an easy plan to follow. Not so sure it will make any money. Good luck!!

Lol, probably not, it's mostly built for entertainment.

Thank you for interacting with my journal, I enjoy chatting.

Good luck and have a nice day!

Blackgrey45

Very very interesting to note: 3072 contracts sitting at 4451.50 in the ESU23 orderbook, currently 10:07pm. This is one of the biggest limit orders I have seen in the order book ever, especially at this time of night.

blackgrey45 

Very very interesting to note: 3072 contracts sitting at 4451.50 in the ESU23 orderbook, currently 10:07pm. This is one of the biggest limit orders I have seen in the order book ever, especially at this time of night.

Interesting, that was the june 16 gap that the bulls filled, seems to be an area of interest now.


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Plan is to start trading live again next week. I will likely trade the MES and a few MCL trades sprinkled in there. The goal is to trade the ES but still do not have enough cash saved up to trade the ES live. I also changed brokers. Went over to AMP using Sierra Chart as my platform of choice. I will see how things go and how I like the new broker.