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2023 Rabbit
Updated December 28, 2023
2023 Rabbit
May 18th, 2023, 03:54 PM
boston ma
Posts: 368 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
nq pulls the show once again, rty decided to join, practicing sells but the ramp continues
nq seems to have a higher target still, looks like the race toward those levels may hit early
es catching up while energy drags, ym is following as well, energy also catching up
//
powell in the am, gold is not following, ramp to levels, area is prone to resistance
have to wait until balance and retest but tailwind off the sold straddles remains
nq seems to lead but also is not catching up and might be last to hit target
//
es first to target while nq, rty and ym lag though nq is closer to target
possibly overnight rty and ym would catch further and maybe energy as tailwind
//
post powell, debt ceil impasse, rty leading, ym too, es and nq lagging
//
es now following, nq lagging rty and ym past support, energy related as cl also influenced
if nq participates then supports may test further, vx after rollover kinda strange
//
currently prefer ym and es due to defined resistance, rty less so, nq has none
es most favored due to extra kicker after resistance, actually nq has had resistance
and really stubborn, slow moving toward kicker, very narrow so not touching
//
kicker may change things, energy not dragging as much, gold actually higher
dollar did a dip, bonds still low but up a bit, nikkei has followed as well
only real setups now nq es things completed for a while.. leave it to expiry etc
//
curious to see weekly if things have to catch up there
made a quick decision to not use the topstep live swing, after deel closing
have to put in extra data fees, just running with ticktick for now
and then eventually to live, maybe fun runs with apex sim
//
one of the strats is to run multiple accounts to spread risk and apex is cheap for that
however, the data fees add up later, so eventually live but that means sparser entries
//
stuff is looking to fade , energy is now fading as well
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Best Threads (Most Thanked) in the last 7 days on NexusFi
May 19th, 2023, 04:32 PM
boston ma
Posts: 368 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
today was distributed, esp after debt delays, but very tame
moving away from small window accts, since those can be replicated live
have some fun accounts that still encourage proper methods
most important are still levels, then kickers but levels still rule
instead of feeding sims, will use my current data streams
and contribute chunk to continue improving live
the journey has been fun, in the end this exercise more in spirit than mind
8D
FIN.
May 23rd, 2023, 12:35 PM
boston ma
Posts: 368 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
today m2k shorted for a few micros following resistance and fibs
also saw some stocks like zm and v that were dropping so accumulated further
going smaller with shorter duration / higher risk (mostly as short term hedge)
the plan is to keep increasing duration, lowering risk and leverage
where positioning is more important for further compounding
//
that was the only instrument really, maybe mes might find support later
otherwise nothing much else, unless there is something unexpected
the environment is setting up such that specs turn swings turn vesting
deleveraging and bringing non-leveraged capital to the broader market
also means that individual stock picking vs indexes might thrive aka btfdmf
//
so just saw how energy behaved, and es did test lower, the close was decent
combined, this confirms at least initial support for decent dip/bounce
//
lots of dips in big names, semis down as well, however energy is up there
there are some fomc minutes, so playing into that possibly, close to bounce
possibly add longer term to accumulate, see how the close goes
//
when vix hit resistance things started a bounce, so that would be a useful level
May 24th, 2023, 02:00 PM
boston ma
Posts: 368 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
using entry and levels, started another swing as vix also shrinks with energy
would use apex but the static is not really a swing for holding through normal hours
also screening through various instruments and stocks for further accumulation
consumer credit, leisure and semis on sale and then some this AM
//
of the 4 indexes based on support behavior, es weakest, then ym, then rty with nq strongest
in part from large cap tech, semi and biotech dips vs. other sectors, consumer / rate sensitive
question is, do you follow with strength / leader or take advantage of weakness to get dips
that is where the individual dipping gives more tells, that semis weak but consumer firm
and less biotech but pharma diagnostics, transports actually ok and industrials
//
points to ym, not most weak but balanced, maybe small caps / global / foreign as alt
ma, v, lin, vips, wynn, a, unp, csx, tmo, newr, but not on, nxpi, stm, mchp, lscc
mixed bag here, maybe chuck the laggards and ride the strength
//
part of the semi puzzle is that tsm, appl, qcom, samsung, etc. lead / take mkt share
big cap dips, like ma, v, a, unp, csx, tmo that is a more likely play, not sure why on is less weak
with this avoiding small caps mostly seems better, though newr bucked that trend
again, healthy tests of vix, at higher resistance , may have to further filter toward larger cap
//
points still to large cap tech, where support testing was reasonable unlike es, just slightly
but also exhibiting strength, but indu ym was also tested very much and might be ok
es might as well be the final support and avoiding rty, ym prob held down via energy too
which means nq, though wide has the best exposure and then ym, w/ margin / risk in mind
rty weakness would be the flip side though held support vs. es
//
after parsing through qualifiers, can now set and forget, will still monitor individuals
rty lagging, then ym with nq component lifting es. ym and es similar, nq already at next levels
vix turnaround from highs ignited, may have to leave room for end of day type activity
//
oh, nvda positive reaction, so partly from earnings type action though ym moves less
semis might have been held but now reactive into next day, if so both es and nq behaved
even rty but less so ym and the post nvda result does show some of that confirmation
//
vix seems to be deciding direction and making up its mind, dollar testing
nq from nvda but the ym and m2k are also okay testing supports
May 25th, 2023, 04:58 PM
boston ma
Posts: 368 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
well bonds and gold, energy off, rty responded okay off supports
have to expand variety of instruments, tracking dollar as well
when nq bumps but others do not, behaves similar to a built in resistance
not necessarily a leading index, hmm.. also contract changeovers
//
open seems reflexive to mid week, vix also in range gold ran decently o/n
the yellow metal did changeover, and the dollar is rechecking yday highs
so vix and $ giving tailwinds to indexes into the long weekend
//
intc and vz are giving some dips, maybe off the competition like nvda
though ai might be a possibility, nvda has not really given proper levels
not sure what this dark activity bodes: https://squeezemetrics.com/monitormonitormonitor/dix
//
also interesting is that gold-bond is still supported, with dollar testing
still joined the bid for a bit in m2k but not pushing things too far
a fearful respect like a big wave surfer (not big time) looking at jaws
//
this sentiment should save some pain, though semis have recovered some
thing is, dollar keeps churning, would like to see crude dip
there is a possibility if vix supports and energy drags that we are peakish
//
at least plateaued, maybe profit taking ongoing, esp with dollar rising
if following the darkpool, then selling here would make some sense
the event is a bit of a process though, so gold-bond type might be the alt
//
due to contract changeover entry is confusing, so just using the % as entry
intc recovered with rest of semis, when a large cap / blue chip does this
prob dip buying enviro still, just not sure for how long, esp w/ vol
May 30th, 2023, 11:19 AM
boston ma
Posts: 368 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
aimless after the holiday, which messes things up on schedule, energy is dropping hard, but not enough to find support / eia thurs instead
since we cannot really treat monday as a full day, this is a continuation, but bit of confusion ongoing so bit of ranging misdirection
also a extended push higher might cause positions to be sold instead especially following news conclusions like debt talks (?)
//
looked back at aug/sept 2015 when there was a dip, strange because that scenario seemed to be volatile, but expanding levels
each expansion was never complete, so positions either had to hold their nose and just buy anywhere or just wait things out
or maybe the historical data was incomplete and there was a hard dip / flash (8/24/15) there and just was not properly displayed
//
otherwise pretty much, volume lower, summer, waiting.. cinemark dipped some, summer movies, etc.
looking back at 2015 flash, buyers 8/20-24 would have taken a drawdown , but quickly been okay as well in the following days, not sure on holders as, the process took more than a month to really properly grind higher
May 31st, 2023, 11:42 AM
boston ma
Posts: 368 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
more fluid today, after the long weekend seems like dips ongoing, nq with the nvda influence
ym seems to join energy, though crude is lower maybe more conviction with consensus
still running through scans to pick up dips, small caps weakest link currently
//
crude higher, small caps healthy after pull back, nasdaq did not dip but semi ranged
vix and dollar lower, prob cannot dip too far into nfp
June 2nd, 2023, 12:02 PM
boston ma
Posts: 368 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
targeted area, vix also approaching, would peel at least
rty es are at prime levels, ym confirms and also nq is not at level
next dip pending, perhaps hold onto core?
//
Name Symbol
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. ADR MNSO
RH RH
Antero Resources Corp. AR
UBS Group AG UBS
Stellantis N.V. STLA
Golar LNG Ltd. GLNG
Tencent Music Group ADR TME
SunOpta Inc. STKL
JOYY Inc. ADR YY
Dell Technologies Inc. Cl C DELL
Alcoa Corp. AA
Dada Nexus Ltd. ADR DADA
Signet Jewelers Ltd. SIG
WestRock Co. WRK
Ready Capital Corp. RC
PBF Energy Inc. PBF
Oxford Industries Inc. OXM
DISH Network Corp. Cl A DISH
listings for total gain 6.5%, not really same day trade, grabbing swings since start of week
options strat could amplify / reduce capital here as well, prob 10-20X
nazzy is not done really, sort of just hung out for friday, others are pushing but not an exit until the fat nq sings
June 5th, 2023, 10:17 AM
boston ma
Posts: 368 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
vix turning, small cap / russell sold first, less on scanners to pick up
longer term, the monthly level is high, weekly even higher..
gold, 10-year risked off at open with m2k but other indexes did not react
//
nazzy still holding on, kinda but not really folding like es
seeing some dips in individuals see how that goes
well nq went negative, so there goes the indexes
//
had only nvo to start, now small caps are running, without the other indexes
something incongruous about that
June 6th, 2023, 11:39 AM
boston ma
Posts: 368 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
possibly use the smalls to prop while majors can slink out with larger volume
via bitkogan@stocktwits
also vix did move, but only rut followed, es ym nq were mostly held in range
Last Updated on December 28, 2023