2023 Rabbit

June 8th, 2023, 10:14 AM

well rty is hitting drops and bonds rising, see if nq can recover the damage

gold is also rising, nq is counter to small caps, gold still up there

pre run, fomc event, sentiment / positioning, sticky inflation issues

//

inadvertently hedged via large/small cap ratio that was discussed

past few days reverted the trend but seems to be back again

0hedge/markets/small-caps-soar-tech-tumbles-soft-landing-narrative-builds

//

as a proxy for soft-landing, qqq/rty or at least a decent straddly hedge

tbh, just sticking with some decent mid-large tech, ftnt, nvo, vmw

vix not really budging after the dip rout either

//

yields still dropping, nq is ramping but rut is fighting the dip

scanning, cannot find decent dips on mid-large names -> bid large cap tech index

vix is still calm though gold still running, dollar weak

//

so semi-infl expectations part yield-pause, part inherent

oil jumped back, silver also taking part in commodity inflation

so fomc has some considerations if yield expectations are still misaligned

//

guess this qqq/rut thing is still recovering as nq closes high with rut slightly negative

would inflation target become secondary to economic health if data gets even worse

June 9th, 2023, 11:33 AM

continuation of dollar strength mostly, yields ok in line with pressure on inflation

rty is taking the hit mostly, though the major indexes are dropping too

6j drop, or usd/jpy strength also checks out, eur/usd as well so cash is actually okay

June 12th, 2023, 10:36 AM

seemed paused into fomc let's see what happens, though oil and gold is down and vix up

gold did something funny the past few days, maybe just dipping, bonds also

seems like available positioning while indexes float around, slight malaise

//

if wuhan institute is cv-19 source, then the last few years were a synthetic faux pas

historically, weeks even months prior to the cv-19 hit, things were positioned waiting

wedging toward a tipping point, an arrow pointing in many instruments to something

//

energy is (ho rb cl not ng) positioned for cpi crypto (btc eth) too not metals (gc si even hg pl)

pa exported from russia, more sensitive to ukraine events but vx indexes are less affected

bond, dollar, currency are also stalled into fomc

June 13th, 2023, 03:31 PM

crypto space for time being, oil did stuff and may continue

indexes just floating, currency and bonds are waiting

//

exited nvo, hold vmw, ftnt, pld nothing really came up on the screen today

so just crypto into fomc

//

well dollar dump did not pump crypto, out and energy after pumping, dumped

currency moves still within range, bonds too and gold but ppi did a number on oil

//

indexes may take another day to get the turn after digesting late pm info

small caps prob leading as they beat down first, rate sensitive

//

grains, oats higher after dipping and rice dipped hard

swiss franc also did a thing, suspicions that dollar will keep on dollaring

//

yep, watch the dollar, post fomc dot-plot yield projection now +0.4%

no change but need to increase pace of hikes, so dollar jumps, yields too

//

there goes oil, indexes kneejerk, etc. not sure why heating oil was stickier

June 14th, 2023, 04:08 PM

crypto dumped nicely at the close otherwise look to energy moves

eog added from scan, dow is under still vs. other indexes

//

flip flop of dollar, bonds, gas dipped and dow recovered

crypto still at lows, crude picking up and gold as well

June 15th, 2023, 04:22 PM

crypto recovering from dip, dollar at lows, gold also followed, bonds too, commodities, currencies

all added otherwise, just more ranging indexes

//

vx is quiet, but the carry via yen, 6j lowering for risk-on alongside dollar rising

energy complex is higher as well, may be feeding the other side of the carry

//

indexes might sell for the week

June 20th, 2023, 11:30 AM

lowered energy complex, higher mid term bonds (5s/10s) and dipping small caps maybe aud nzd continues

dow is next most likely to hit levels where selling might accelerate, though es nq w/ large cap tech influence is still protected

more indexes selling, crypto pushing higher, though gold lower with dollar

//

looks like only small caps are affected, as larger indexes still have to be tested

June 21st, 2023, 06:24 PM

gas moved hard, rb and bitcoin too

bit of commodity vol in heating oil, ho too

but ng/cl still goin

large cap tech took a hit, damage still there

June 23rd, 2023, 10:41 AM

guessing soy meal is lower due to export otherwise grains are higher

energy complex lower, large / small cap tech too, copper and dow

crypto is still hovering, commod feeling the dollar rebound

carry not so affected but aud and yen lower, bonds / vix hovering

//

via zh: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/signs-signs-everywhere-signs-but-no-recession-yet/

also interesting that sbux is slumping, also testing supports recently

cop cvx ms bac jpm dvn acn aig handful of smaller caps like rivn

June 26th, 2023, 05:07 PM

dow is buffered by energy and small caps seem to be as well

large cap tech is dipping still, other than that risk still there

some latent dollar strength hovering to fend inflation

industrial / mfg productivity vs. service and seasonality for energy

//

energy weakness into eia, gdp then nfp maybe

though indexes recovered, continuation etc. to confirm

dollar hovering with bonds and tbc

also crypto is still hanging around

2023 Rabbit

Discussion in Trading Journals

2023 Rabbit