20231009 post market




trades 10 9

• I expected not much after that huge expansion of range
• Often we see balanced or non trend days after big expansions
• had some technical problems with unwanted order fills
• left early as i had a doctors appointment

• My main context is: The breakout of the balance area is intact for now
• We have some nice targets above us. Prior acceptances. Daily and weekly virgin volume poc´s, edges of value areas
• The volume was a bit lower yesterday which reduces the stability of the breakout a bit but thats only one data point. For now it is intact until proven otherwise

Is the pullback low in? We don´t know and we don´´t need to on our timeframe.

This can easily rollover and make new lows or as well make new highs. Or it can start dancing in a circle :-)

20231010 pre market

• the daily is clearly up and the break out of balance is intact
• I will trade from that standpoint until it changes
• Covering generally weakens a market and higher prices generally attract sellers but it can also be the opposite. We have to take it as it happens
• We moved higher fast for two days so there can alreaday be poor located buyers

Some FED speakers are scheduled

The on range is similar to yesterdays upper distribution

20231010 post market


trades 10 10

• We opened and stayed nearly unchanged for 20 minutes
• Unfortunately we did not see e little shake out contra auction
• I bought it pushy and immediately felt a bit like "sitting on the flagpole" (my phrase for the opposite of "short in the hole")
• So i took it off early and waited for a liquidation
• As it came after 1pm i bought it near vwap
• Took it off as nothing happenend for a too long time
• My mentioned target of 15373 (weekly vpoc) was achieved without me but i dont care

20231011 pre market

• We moved up strong for 3 days and the breakout from balance is intact
• We have poor structure below us
• One time the up-move will find (more) sellers and go into Balance
• If we go up a little more we meet the down-trend-line from the years high
• We have to see if and where this market goes into Balance
• We open in range and value
• No reason for early offensive trading today
• I try to wait for an offer that i can´t reject

fed minutes at 2pm eastern

20231011 post market




trades 10 11

• We opened, moved up and had a look above y rth h where we failed
• I tried shorts to target y poc
• Shorts were not able to gain any traction so i closed them early
• I thought that this weakness of shorts is a sign that buyers could still be in control
• It was hard to catch the inflection point but at third trial it worked. I expected more control from the long side here but we were not able to reach ibh
• Ended the day with a scalp short as it looked as if the would run over the very weak low of day which they did

20231012 pre market

• Not much different from yesterday
• I watch it from the standpoint that te market has moved a good way and could slow down a bit/come in balance a bit
• Yesterdays more or less inside day with unchanged value is a confirming sign for this thesis
• Of course i am open to all other outcomes too
• No reason for offensive, early trading

20231013 pre market



The premarket got deleted by technical issues on the forum side

trades 10 13

• 10am news are often tricky as they can be shake out news
• market opened in balance
• overnight had tested lower but came back in
• The longs in the first hour were derived from the scenario that the status quo could remain intact
• The ES supported that thesis as it spent the whole morning inside thursdays range
• IN c-period we accelerated on the downside so that the bias to short side was clear
• There was no pullback opportunity for a continuation trade
• It was too late for short and too early for longs so i am very satisfied that there was no trade in that phase
• When there were signs of change i bought it. I decided to speculate that it comes back hard and did not trade it as a small distance contra scalp. After the fact the latter would have been better. But you never know. After long moves there can come long moves in the opposite direction
• I switched back to short as there were signs that a afternoon rally high is in. The short side saw no follow through

Bigger picture

• I see it as totally open if we get a rollover to the shortside or if this is only a pullback and the latest up-move remains intact
• On the one hand the potential rollover occurs on obvious technical level in both markets
• On the other hand if the market would clearly want the rollover we would already be lower

The most obvious description for me is that the 4 day up-move was mostly covering and that fridays downmove was mostly a liquidation of speculative longs that bought this covering late. Many moves are caused by inventory corrections.

20231016 pre market

• The on session traded inside of fridays liquidation belly. The edges of it are interesting
• Friday low is intersting as it is similar to the top of the multi-day-balance area