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System Performance Stats Comparison


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  #1 (permalink)
 
USIndexTrader's Avatar
 USIndexTrader 
Lake Oconee GA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT8
Broker: APEX Trader Funding & NinjaTrader
Trading: Indices, Currencies, Energy, Metals
Posts: 57 since Dec 2010
Thanks Given: 16
Thanks Received: 46

I have two strategies. One is mine (free) the other I lease (119/mo).
My free strategy shows the following performance results:
5 year total profit $45,688,
profit factor 1.19,
percentage winners 60.85%,
average losing trade ($135),
largest losing trade ($727),
drawdown, ($6,077).

The 5 year result for the paid strategy
($7,140 lease fees over 5 years)
total profit $41,692 ($34,552 net after fees) ,
profit factor 1.82, percentage winners 74.2%,
average losing trade ($87),
largest losing trade ($665),
max drawdown ($2,057).

Question is which do you trade, the one that will cost $7,140 over 5 years with better stats or my free strategy?
Would love some input interpreting these stats as to which one is 'better'.

I think mine is better considering the lease fees vs my drawdown of $6K, The lease fees of course eat into your total return.
What do y'all think?


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  #2 (permalink)
 
ThemBones's Avatar
 ThemBones 
Chattanooga, TN
 
Trading: Futures
Posts: 94 since Aug 2021
Thanks Given: 565
Thanks Received: 151

I would obtain several more unique 5-year samples. Any data previously used should not be used again. It could be the 5-years tested were favorable, mediocre, or unfavorable to either strategy


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  #3 (permalink)
 
USIndexTrader's Avatar
 USIndexTrader 
Lake Oconee GA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT8
Broker: APEX Trader Funding & NinjaTrader
Trading: Indices, Currencies, Energy, Metals
Posts: 57 since Dec 2010
Thanks Given: 16
Thanks Received: 46


Good idea, thank you for the input.


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  #4 (permalink)
 
Devil Man's Avatar
 Devil Man 
Fort Lauderdale
Legendary / Stochastic Calculus is not your friend
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninjatrader, Python API
Broker: CQG
Trading: Nasdaq and Crude futures
Posts: 893 since Oct 2009
Thanks Given: 3,561
Thanks Received: 1,600


USIndexTrader View Post
I have two strategies. One is mine (free) the other I lease (119/mo).
My free strategy shows the following performance results:
5 year total profit $45,688,
profit factor 1.19,
percentage winners 60.85%,
average losing trade ($135),
largest losing trade ($727),
drawdown, ($6,077).

The 5 year result for the paid strategy
($7,140 lease fees over 5 years)
total profit $41,692 ($34,552 net after fees) ,
profit factor 1.82, percentage winners 74.2%,
average losing trade ($87),
largest losing trade ($665),
max drawdown ($2,057).

Question is which do you trade, the one that will cost $7,140 over 5 years with better stats or my free strategy?
Would love some input interpreting these stats as to which one is 'better'.

I think mine is better considering the lease fees vs my drawdown of $6K, The lease fees of course eat into your total return.
What do y'all think?

@USIndexTrader we would need more info to evaluate the performance. It sounds like you may be basing your decision on static results of a backtest which can be misleading to say the least. Markets are dynamic and you have to consider and test changes in volatility as well as other robustness tests which can heavily affect your strats performance. Also, what financial model were your strats built on? How do they stack up with Sharpe, CPC, SQN, Expectancy etc? Anyway I'm not trying to be difficult I just think there is a lot more needed for you to base a decision and throw real money at it. Hope this helps!

v/r

Johnny


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  #5 (permalink)
 
USIndexTrader's Avatar
 USIndexTrader 
Lake Oconee GA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT8
Broker: APEX Trader Funding & NinjaTrader
Trading: Indices, Currencies, Energy, Metals
Posts: 57 since Dec 2010
Thanks Given: 16
Thanks Received: 46


Devil Man View Post
@USIndexTrader we would need more info to evaluate the performance. It sounds like you may be basing your decision on static results of a backtest which can be misleading to say the least. Markets are dynamic and you have to consider and test changes in volatility as well as other robustness tests which can heavily affect your strats performance. Also, what financial model were your strats built on? How do they stack up with Sharpe, CPC, SQN, Expectancy etc? Anyway I'm not trying to be difficult I just think there is a lot more needed for you to base a decision and throw real money at it. Hope this helps!

v/r

Johnny

Very much, thanks Johnny. I will dig deeper on those stats!


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  #6 (permalink)
 
Devil Man's Avatar
 Devil Man 
Fort Lauderdale
Legendary / Stochastic Calculus is not your friend
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninjatrader, Python API
Broker: CQG
Trading: Nasdaq and Crude futures
Posts: 893 since Oct 2009
Thanks Given: 3,561
Thanks Received: 1,600


USIndexTrader View Post
Very much, thanks Johnny. I will dig deeper on those stats!

and if you really want to know whats up I would see if the legend himself @kevinkdog would chime in for his .02!


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  #7 (permalink)
 
USIndexTrader's Avatar
 USIndexTrader 
Lake Oconee GA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT8
Broker: APEX Trader Funding & NinjaTrader
Trading: Indices, Currencies, Energy, Metals
Posts: 57 since Dec 2010
Thanks Given: 16
Thanks Received: 46


USIndexTrader View Post
Very much, thanks Johnny. I will dig deeper on those stats!

Here is a deeper look at my system (free) numbers. How do these performance/MC stats look to you? This is over the 5 year window 2019-2024.


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  #8 (permalink)
 
Devil Man's Avatar
 Devil Man 
Fort Lauderdale
Legendary / Stochastic Calculus is not your friend
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninjatrader, Python API
Broker: CQG
Trading: Nasdaq and Crude futures
Posts: 893 since Oct 2009
Thanks Given: 3,561
Thanks Received: 1,600


USIndexTrader View Post
Here is a deeper look at my system (free) numbers. How do these performance/MC stats look to you? This is over the 5 year window 2019-2024.


what is your in sample and out of sample profit/drawdown ratio?


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  #9 (permalink)
 
USIndexTrader's Avatar
 USIndexTrader 
Lake Oconee GA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT8
Broker: APEX Trader Funding & NinjaTrader
Trading: Indices, Currencies, Energy, Metals
Posts: 57 since Dec 2010
Thanks Given: 16
Thanks Received: 46


Devil Man View Post
what is your in sample and out of sample profit/drawdown ratio?

For the current period 2019-2024 it's 3.14.
For a prior period 2015-2020 it's .57.

I divided total profit/drawdown.


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  #10 (permalink)
 
Devil Man's Avatar
 Devil Man 
Fort Lauderdale
Legendary / Stochastic Calculus is not your friend
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninjatrader, Python API
Broker: CQG
Trading: Nasdaq and Crude futures
Posts: 893 since Oct 2009
Thanks Given: 3,561
Thanks Received: 1,600



USIndexTrader View Post
For the current period 2019-2024 it's 3.14.
For a prior period 2015-2020 it's .57.

I divided total profit/drawdown.

my preference would be to see PNL/DD number much higher than that and closer to each other for in sample/out of sample data sets. For instance most of my single instrument strats have a ratio over 20/1. Another often overlooked metric to look at is EV or expected value. In your case I doubt your strat performs well considering the info you posted but that is just an opinion of mine based on experience.


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Last Updated on May 21, 2024


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