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I have two strategies. One is mine (free) the other I lease (119/mo).
My free strategy shows the following performance results:
5 year total profit $45,688,
profit factor 1.19,
percentage winners 60.85%,
average losing trade ($135),
largest losing trade ($727), drawdown, ($6,077).
The 5 year result for the paid strategy
($7,140 lease fees over 5 years)
total profit $41,692 ($34,552 net after fees) ,
profit factor 1.82, percentage winners 74.2%,
average losing trade ($87),
largest losing trade ($665),
max drawdown ($2,057).
Question is which do you trade, the one that will cost $7,140 over 5 years with better stats or my free strategy?
Would love some input interpreting these stats as to which one is 'better'.
I think mine is better considering the lease fees vs my drawdown of $6K, The lease fees of course eat into your total return.
What do y'all think?
I would obtain several more unique 5-year samples. Any data previously used should not be used again. It could be the 5-years tested were favorable, mediocre, or unfavorable to either strategy
Legendary / Stochastic Calculus is not your friend
Experience: None
Platform: Ninjatrader, Python API
Broker: CQG
Trading: Nasdaq and Crude futures
Posts: 893 since Oct 2009
Thanks Given: 3,561
Thanks Received: 1,600
@USIndexTrader we would need more info to evaluate the performance. It sounds like you may be basing your decision on static results of a backtest which can be misleading to say the least. Markets are dynamic and you have to consider and test changes in volatility as well as other robustness tests which can heavily affect your strats performance. Also, what financial model were your strats built on? How do they stack up with Sharpe, CPC, SQN, Expectancy etc? Anyway I'm not trying to be difficult I just think there is a lot more needed for you to base a decision and throw real money at it. Hope this helps!
Legendary / Stochastic Calculus is not your friend
Experience: None
Platform: Ninjatrader, Python API
Broker: CQG
Trading: Nasdaq and Crude futures
Posts: 893 since Oct 2009
Thanks Given: 3,561
Thanks Received: 1,600
my preference would be to see PNL/DD number much higher than that and closer to each other for in sample/out of sample data sets. For instance most of my single instrument strats have a ratio over 20/1. Another often overlooked metric to look at is EV or expected value. In your case I doubt your strat performs well considering the info you posted but that is just an opinion of mine based on experience.