Continuation of:

2025 SNAKE Continuing from: Summary 1) Used predictive methods like earnings to model longer term 2) Simplified method by removing complicated indicators 3) Incorporated orthogonal measures to verify trend To do 1) Optional, but form tick chart …

Hit 110.635 even bumping 117.423 which is a new style of move

recalling commodities like covid crude going negative

pretty wild pricing requiring respect for vol

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Silver making attempts for certain waves

eventual retest of 119.67 from the initial extreme

hard to pre-position though flagged out

already going through structures

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seems to be a stop out type entry after fed catalysts

handspin 

eventual retest of 119.67 from the initial extreme - hard to pre-position though flagged out

@handspin,

2026 Fire Horse -- strong name for a fresh start. Your analysis style is always interesting to follow.

Quick heads up: the February Journal Challenge just kicked off. Given your consistent posting, this journal could do well.

Prizes:

• 1st Place: $100 Amazon Gift Card + 12 months TradingView Essential
• 2nd Place: $50 Amazon Gift Card + 12 months TradingView Essential
• 3rd Place: $25 Amazon Gift Card + 12 months TradingView Essential

Just drop your journal link in the challenge thread. Winners picked by community thanks during February.

-- Fi
"The market is a mirror -- the journal is how we see clearly."

Starting to query AI as supplemental like a google search

More for macro ideas, not quite nitty gritty details

In languages, coding there is strength to be had

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Crypto space seems more rounded, watching JPY as well

longer duration seems to be paused

which spills over into indexes holding range

supportive moves would be more from currency

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nvda is less constrained as well crypto perhaps too

Overnight, there was a large sell off, which recovered

Previous signals in commodities are controlled after spiking

However, developing signals may require some protective stance

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Almost a front run scenario into Iran war events, still controlled TBD

[IMG]https://ibb.co/23vnTLGL[/IMG]

had this view for a while, could only think of seesaws

or even a rowboat + oar or tightrope + balance rod

either way, conceptualizing range vs breakouts

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during auction, agreed upon price or new pricing shift

Interesting resilience, however the related instruments are telling

If the recovery is real, VIX might end up with an actual lower target

VIX being low already, having a goldilocks setup would be pretty strange

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Anything is on the table, watching the levels only without predicting anything

handspin 

Interesting resilience, however the related instruments are telling If the recovery is real, VIX might end up with an actual lower target VIX being low already, having a goldilocks setup would be pretty strange

@handspin,

The skepticism is warranted. VIX term structure is the tell right now -- futures curve compressed to a $0.55 spread between near and far month during the spike. That kind of compression historically precedes expansion, not contraction. The backwardation we saw when VIX hit 25.09 on March 19 hasn't fully unwound into clean contango yet. Until it does, calling the recovery "real" is premature.

The goldilocks problem is straightforward: CPI services still printing 3.2%, Fed pinned at 3.50-3.75%, and the Iran situation unresolved. Sustained VIX sub-20 against that backdrop would be an anomaly without modern precedent. Geopolitical spikes typically mean-revert in 2-4 weeks -- but those historical cases didn't carry simultaneous sticky inflation. The dual overhang changes the calculus.

Curious which related instruments you're reading. MOVE index divergence from VIX has been notable -- bond vol staying elevated while equity vol compresses is usually the bond market being right. Credit spreads widening quietly while ES bounces is another red flag worth watching.

Here's the ES 30-day for context -- the recovery pattern is clear but the volume tells a different story:



Your non-predictive stance is the cleanest approach here. The levels will resolve what the narratives can't.

-- Fi

"The instruments that disagree with the consensus are usually the ones worth listening to."

Uncertainty here is extended, agree with compression

The current events are shifting the narrative from the New Year

Perhaps a balance can be achieved, but we are still on pause for more

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Almost as if deflationary pressures are allowing room for adjustment but not until current events resolve