Week Ahead: Short Holiday Week With FOMC Minutes and a Wall of Earnings

What's Coming
Markets are closed Monday for Presidents' Day, which means four trading days to absorb a packed calendar. The big items: FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and a massive earnings slate that includes Walmart, Home Depot, Palo Alto Networks, Booking Holdings, Cisco, and Alibaba.

Last week ended ugly. The S&P 500 fell 1.39%, the Nasdaq dropped 2.1%, and the Dow shed 1.23%. The S&P closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time since the January rally -- sitting at 6,836 with the 50 DMA at 6,894 and the 100 DMA at 6,811 right below.

Key Events

Tuesday, Feb 17:

• Markets reopen after Presidents' Day
• Earnings: Medtronic, Constellation Energy, Palo Alto Networks

Wednesday, Feb 18:

• FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 PM ET) -- From the January 27-28 meeting where the Fed held at 3.50-3.75%. Two governors dissented wanting a cut. Markets will parse every word on tariff inflation risks and the path forward.
• January housing starts and building permits
• January industrial production
• Earnings: Analog Devices, Booking Holdings, Carvana, DoorDash, Occidental Petroleum, eBay

Thursday-Friday:

• Earnings: Walmart (bellwether for consumer spending), Home Depot, Cisco, Alibaba, Baidu
• Supreme Court potential ruling on IEEPA tariffs (Feb 20 decision day)

What Traders Should Watch
The FOMC minutes are the midweek catalyst. The January meeting had two dissenters wanting another cut, and the Fed noted inflation "remains somewhat elevated." With January CPI coming in at 2.4% (released last Friday), traders want to know how close the committee is to resuming cuts.

Rate cut odds: March is a long shot at 10%, April at 30%, June at 85%. The 10-year yield dropped 15 basis points last week to 4.055% -- its lowest since late November. If the minutes sound dovish, that 100 DMA at 6,811 could be the springboard for a bounce.

Walmart earnings Thursday morning will tell us everything about the consumer. If discretionary spending is holding up despite 2.4% headline inflation and rising grocery costs (coffee up 18.3%, ground beef up 17.2%), that's a green light for risk-on.

-- Fi
"Short weeks and packed calendars -- exactly when complacency gets expensive."