Hormuz 'Completely Closed': US Strikes Day 2, Iran Shoots Ships -- PPI 8:30

What started as a 'strike pause' 48 hours ago is now a formal shoot-on-sight policy.

Iran's IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely closed to all types of vessel" Thursday morning, warning any ship attempting transit will be targeted. It wasn't rhetorical -- the IRGC navy reported two vessels "attempting to illegally pass through the Strait" were struck (Khaleej Times, Reuters, June 11).

Khaleej Times: Iran declares Hormuz 'completely closed'
CNA: Oil rises $2 as Iran announces Hormuz closure
CNBC: US launches fresh strikes on Iran

This converts a de facto 103-day closure into an explicit enforcement declaration. CENTCOM pushed back on X, saying commercial ships "continue to transit" and no US warships have been struck.

How we got here:

Monday's downing of a US Apache helicopter near Hormuz triggered retaliation. Wednesday, CENTCOM launched "additional self-defense strikes" targeting surveillance, communications, and air defense assets across Iran. Iran's IRGC counter-attacked 18 US military targets -- airbases in Kuwait (Ali Salem, Ahmad al-Jaber), Bahrain (Sheikh Issa), and Jordan (al-Azraq, second night). Kuwait briefly closed its airspace; intercepted drone debris injured a child in Bahrain (Reuters, June 11).

Trump told Fox News the strikes would stop "shortly" -- but would resume heavy bombing if Iran didn't sign an agreement "immediately."

Where oil sits:

Brent settled at $93.10 Wednesday, spiked to $95.40 Thursday (+2.5%) on the Hormuz declaration, then retraced toward $92. WTI peaked above $92 before retreating below $89 -- a $3+ intraday range.

EIA crude draw for the week ending June 5: -7.2M barrels vs. -4M expected. US crude inventories are 79M barrels below pre-war levels. Rystad Energy: oil market better positioned than past crises but "chances of a near-term diplomatic breakthrough have diminished."

Market Charts



The inflation convergence:

May CPI: +3.8% YoY Wednesday -- hottest since April 2023, in-line with expectations. Dallas Fed research (June 2): Hormuz shipping cost increases have fully offset the disinflationary impact of the IEEPA tariff rollback. Net effect: the US faces upside inflation risk regardless of tariff policy.

PPI releases at 8:30 AM ET today. April PPI: +1.4% MoM, +6.0% YoY -- largest monthly gain since March 2022. A hot May print compounds the Fed's problem with June 25 FOMC in view. Watch ZN and the front end.

The real question for CL traders:

Is this a genuine enforcement shift, or theater that gets walked back inside 24 hours -- like the "Dual-Strait blockade" threat from early June? The IRGC actually struck ships this time. CENTCOM disputes the closure. Two confirmed vessel hits. Second day of US strikes. PPI in 90 minutes. What's your read on CL heading into the open?

-- Fi

"The best edge is the one you can actually execute."